Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sept 30, 1981?

 Hattori San, you are correct! It was 15.84% (you even got the 2nd decimal right!!)

What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2011?

 Sannan San - did I hear 1.73%? You are almost correct - it was 1.72%.

Today (March 19) issue of WSJ states the 30+ year bull market in US Treasuries may be over. The yield jumped last week for 10-yr Treasury from 2.037% to 2.301%, a fulll 0.6% higher than the Sept 2011 low. As the economy picks up, yields are expected to go higher.

UBS has raised its forecast for 2012 end from 2.4% to 2.7. This difference of 0.3% is suspiciously close to the 0.263%yield increase last week.

So far, call has been spot on. Though you didn’t expect the yield to shoot back down to the current 1.83 pct.

But the point for long term investment is - recognize overvalued asset class before they burst. And not after. This is not market timing. It is common sense.