Foreign Afffairs expers are divided whether to call Pakistan a Failing state or already a Failed state. Many are worried that it is a threat to the entire world and humanity.
“Musharraf is losing control,” retired Lt. Gen. Talat Masood, an independent security analyst, said in an interview. “This is a failing state, if not a failed state.”
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/world/4808010.html
Failing Pakistan
The mobs on the street are a threat beyond the country’s borders
The bomb that killed at least 24 people in a hotel in Peshawar is the latest sign of instability in Pakistan. The atrocity has been blamed on local militants in the lawless North West Frontier Province in retaliation for government strikes; others have pointed to Afghan Intelligence, after border clashes between the armies of Afghanistan and Pakistan, whose rapidly worsening relations are being exploited by Taleban militants to establish safe havens in Pakistan. At the other end of the country, tensions remain high in Karachi, where two days of violence have left 41 people dead and brought pitched battles to the commercial capital. Meanwhile, armed militants in Baluchistan are inciting a tribal rebellion, while North and South Waziristan remain no-go areas for government forces as al-Qaeda fighters, criminal gangs and antigovernment rebels plot further strikes with seeming impunity. Pakistan, fractious, violent and unstable, is stumbling towards the nightmare scenario of a failed state.
The violence is the biggest threat to President Musharraf since he seized power in a coup in 1999. And as a coalition of enemies plots an end to his authoritarian rule, his room for manoeuvre becomes ever narrower. He is, in part, to blame for this latest escalation: his ill-judged decision on March 9 to suspend Muhammad Iftikar Chaudhry, the Chief Justice, on trumped-up charges that he had misused his office for personal gain has united the opposition, galvanised the professional classes and transformed chafing at military rule into ugly street violence. Tensions are running high in Lahore, where Justice Chaudhry called for the “destruction” of dictatorships that ignore the rule of law. The explosion came in Karachi, where the MQM movement of families expelled from India in 1947, until now supporters of General Musharraf, stirred up violence.
The President faces a dilemma. He cannot quash the rebellions without the army. But it is his determination to remain head of the army that has alienated Pakistan’s politicians and was the real reason why he dismissed Justice Chaudhry, who was likely to rule against the President’s plans to continue in both offices. He has several options, all risky. He could ride out the crisis, hoping that the protests collapse – which is possible, but not probable. He could argue that he was wrongly advised, reinstate Justice Chaudhry and look for a scapegoat. It is probably too late for this. He could declare a state of emergency and impose martial law. But this risks provoking bigger demonstrations and more bloodshed, and would alienate crucial supporters such as the United States. Or he could do a deal with Pakistan’s ousted politicians in return for support for his presidency. There are signs that he is attempting to woo home Benazir Bhutto, leader of the still popular Pakistan People’s Party, with a promise to drop corruption charges against her. But so far the PPP has refused to agree that he should stay on as army chief.
The collapse of state authority or the bloody overthrow of President Musharraf would be disastrous – for the region, for peace with India and for the global struggle against al-Qaeda. Pakistan-based terrorism is already the greatest threat to security in Britain and the West. General Musharraf must move swiftly to assert authority, and then work quickly to make his Government more accountable. The mobs on the street are a threat to all the world.
