I smell WWIII in the near future or maybe Armageddon?!
[Full Story]](BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran warns Israel against strike)
Re: Iran vs. Israel: Gentlemen, place your bets!
Well lets hope nothing happens but let’s discuss Iran’s possible reaction if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities… what exactly Iran can do? I am not sure of its missile technology…do u guys think Iran would be able to retaliate? There is no way Iran can launch an air strike. Most probably, all of its air force will be bombarded before taking off…so really, the only option Iran may have is to launch a missile attack at Israel.
Israel can take out Iran anytime it wants. It is a matter of time. Iran can't do anything about it.
Iran is full of hot air, just like Sadam.
Re: Re: Iran vs. Israel: Gentlemen, place your bets!
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by phoenixdesi: *
Well lets hope nothing happens but let’s discuss Iran’s possible reaction if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities.... what exactly Iran can do? I am not sure of its missile technology...do u guys think Iran would be able to retaliate? There is no way Iran can launch an air strike. Most probably, all of its air force will be bombarded before taking off…so really, the only option Iran may have is to launch a missile attack at Israel.
[/QUOTE]
Iran lies at the extreme range of Israel's strike capability, so I wouldn't count on the Iranian air force being taken out on the ground. However, they would be ineffective because few, if any, of Iran's operational fighter aircraft have the required range to launch a strike on Israel.
In the even of an Israeli strike on the Iranian reactor, Iran would like a ballistic missile strike against Israel. The targets would be uncertain, depending on the number of available missiles, but Dimona would be the most likely goal.
However, Iran has armed Hezbollah with the required artillery firepower to bombard most Israeli population centres as far south from the lebanese border as the northen suburbs of Tel Aviv, and it is thus likely that Iran would turn lose Hezbollah to retaliate in this way.
Israel's reaction would be interesting. In turn, the Syrian, then Egyptian, Saudi and Jordanian reaction would be interesting too.
^ the difference is Saddam's forces were not really loyal to him and ran away from field, this is very different for Iran. Irani forces are regular military and I don't think they'll run away like Saddam's. Big difference.
Re: Re: Re: Iran vs. Israel: Gentlemen, place your bets!
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by mAd_ScIeNtIsT: *
Israel's reaction would be interesting. In turn, the Syrian, then Egyptian, Saudi and Jordanian reaction would be interesting too.
[/QUOTE]
all Egyptian and Saudis will run away with tail between their legs, not sure about Jordan/Syrian though.
Iran is fairly transparently stalling for time. It is taking a lesson from Saddam and playing cat and mouse with the IAEA, and inspectors, while working furiously to complete as much as they can. The Isrealis will not play this game. While the UN, and the EU fiddle, Isreal will act.
Sometime after the US election they will take out specific targets, and then brace themselves for whatever retaliation Iran can muster. Essentially all Iran can do is lob relatively inaccurate missles at Israeli targets. The layered defense Israel has, coupled with the lack of sophisticated guidance on Iran's missles will allow Israel to take the blow. Over the last few weeks Isreal reportedly lost a rocket carrying a critical satellite. If this is true, it may slow things down. If they feigned the loss of the satellite, it could make Iran a little too relaxed, and ease the way for thier strike.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Ohioguy: *
Iran is fairly transparently stalling for time. It is taking a lesson from Saddam and playing cat and mouse with the IAEA, and inspectors, while working furiously to complete as much as they can. The Isrealis will not play this game. While the UN, and the EU fiddle, Isreal will act.
Sometime after the US election they will take out specific targets, and then brace themselves for whatever retaliation Iran can muster. Essentially all Iran can do is lob relatively inaccurate missles at Israeli targets. The layered defense Israel has, coupled with the lack of sophisticated guidance on Iran's missles will allow Israel to take the blow. Over the last few weeks Isreal reportedly lost a rocket carrying a critical satellite. If this is true, it may slow things down. If they feigned the loss of the satellite, it could make Iran a little too relaxed, and ease the way for thier strike.
[/QUOTE]
What gives Israel the right to do so? Do they themselves not have nuclear weapons? Hypocricy of these (Israelis) never fails to amaze me.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Kaleem: *
What gives Israel the right to do so? Do they themselves not have nuclear weapons? Hypocricy of these (Israelis) never fails to amaze me.
[/QUOTE]
Might is right. Just like Afghan's invasion, Iraq's invasion. Israel has the same right, in name of "fighting terror" anybody can do whatever they desire, just watchout Russia who will be destroying (or attempting to) Chechnya now.
Pakistanis should be grateful to Israel if it takes out Iran's ability to make WMD.
Think logically.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Gupta: *
Pakistanis should be grateful to Israel if it takes out Iran's ability to make WMD.
Think logically.
[/QUOTE]
No, we'd be thankful to Israel or Iran or whoever nukes out India's capabilities :p
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Captain1: *
^ the difference is Saddam's forces were not really loyal to him and ran away from field, this is very different for Iran. Irani forces are regular military and I don't think they'll run away like Saddam's. Big difference.
[/QUOTE]
Iran's regular army, around 300,000, is conscripted and like Saddam's army, fights only because the alternative is jail.
The real problem for anyone would be the Revolutionary Guard, which is 300,000 religiously motivated volunteers. But since Iran has no land border with Israel, there is not problem at all.
"What gives Israel the right to do so? Do they themselves not have nuclear weapons? Hypocricy of these (Israelis) never fails to amaze me."
They want to survive. I really don't think they are that concerned about allegations of hypocracy. In the Middle East, unfortunately, power is still king, not diplomacy.
And, what is the Iranian army going to do? March all the way though Syria or Iraq? That would be interesting!
I think Mad Scientist is probably right. Hezbollah would act as Iranian surrogates with a much greater chance of launching attacks inside Israel. A few missile strikes from Iran to be sure. But lots of rockets from Hezbollah and as many suicide bombers as possible.
I think Israel would wait until the Gaza withdrawal is complete, the wall is in place and a little retrenchment occurs in the West Bank to defensible settlements. Hunkered down in its defensive shell, Israel would probably feel better about taking out the Iranian nuke facilities. That would put the attack late summer or early fall of 2005.
There will NOT be any attack on Iran by U.S or Israel - mark my words.
Iran is not stupid. There are no clear set of targets like Iraq had in Osirak. The American forces are stretched way too much and Iran can make life hell in Iraq by unleashing the Shia militias. Hezbollah can threaten Israel anytime.
Iran is going to be a nuclear power whether the world likes it or not. The nuclear genie has long been out.
Re: Re: Re: Iran vs. Israel: Gentlemen, place your bets!
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by mAd_ScIeNtIsT: *
Israel's reaction would be interesting. In turn, the Syrian, then Egyptian, Saudi and Jordanian reaction would be interesting too.
[/QUOTE]
No doubt it's getting sticky but Israel has already taken out one of Iran's reactors in the past and will do it again. In 1967, the whole Arab world was poised to strike Israel and did. In just 6 days Israel routed the Arab world in what is now called the 6-day war. Israel can handle its business.
I'm surprised that non-one mentioned the word OIL yet! Does'nt Iran have a good amount of oil fields too? For some reason war seems to be inevitable when there's oil involved.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Gupta: *
Pakistanis should be grateful to Israel if it takes out Iran's ability to make WMD.
Think logically.
[/QUOTE]
lol...interesting observation....well I have read a lot about this theory and I am not sure if I am totally convinced.....but i would never reject this theory either......
Undoubtedly, there is a certain amount of rift between Iran and Pakistan and it has lot to do with the leadership tussle of Muslim world and sunni-shia conflicts.. I guess with musharraff's open desire to lead Muslim world ( UN address), this rift may get more serious. Iran also sees herself as a serious contender to be the leader of Muslim world.
My money is on Israel even though the odds probably won't pay much.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by myvoice: *
I think Mad Scientist is probably right. Hezbollah would act as Iranian surrogates with a much greater chance of launching attacks inside Israel. A few missile strikes from Iran to be sure. But lots of rockets from Hezbollah and as many suicide bombers as possible.
I think Israel would wait until the Gaza withdrawal is complete, the wall is in place and a little retrenchment occurs in the West Bank to defensible settlements. Hunkered down in its defensive shell, Israel would probably feel better about taking out the Iranian nuke facilities. That would put the attack late summer or early fall of 2005.
[/QUOTE]
Hezbollah haven't really been in the suicide bombing business on a large scale for over 2 decades - it doesn't seem like part of their modi operadus.
Ever since they gained access to sophisticated weaponry from Iran, they seem to prefer staying alive and fighting with conventional arms with guerilla tactics.
Quite frankly, my gut feeling is that while Iran may have lots of missiles, it only has a handful of Shehab-3 missiles, probably enough only for a short bombardment of Dimona. Given that Dimona is primarily underground, they should not retard the Israeli programme by more than a year at most.
With bunker-buster bomb even if Iranian facilities are underground they could be destroyed by Israel.
The only way for Iran to win in a Israel-Iran conflict would be to provoke a broader regional war. The attacks by Hezbollah would be designed to draw Syria into the war to pull Israeli forces north. Syria, Lebanon and Iran would then apply diplomatic pressure on Egypt to join in.
Assuming Egypt joins (chancey), the arab and persian nations would try and bully Jordan (most friendly to Israel) into participating. Jordanian involvement would strengthen the possibilities of the Saudis getting involved, particularly if street pressure build up.
The only way Israel could be defeated is if Egypt (large modern US-equipped and trained army & air force), Saudi Arabia (large modern US-equipped and trained army & air force), and Syria (to provide cannon fodder to divert israeli forces) get involved. Iran would also, however unlikely to succeed, request permission from Ayad Allawi to move Iranian forces and short-ranged ballistic missiles through Iraq, and for Iranian overflight permission to base aircraft in Jordan.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Iran vs. Israel: Gentlemen, place your bets!
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Samael: *
No doubt it's getting sticky but Israel has already taken out one of Iran's reactors in the past and will do it again. In 1967, the whole Arab world was poised to strike Israel and did. In just 6 days Israel routed the Arab world in what is now called the 6-day war. Israel can handle its business.
[/QUOTE]
Wrong. Israel took out Iraq's reactors, not Iran's. Iran's nuclear sites are much, much further from Israel than Osirak was.
The Iranian reactors under construction were initially taken out by Iraqi bombers in the early 1980s. The USA had been building them for the Shah, and the Soviets were helping Iran finish them off. The USA fed the location of the partially built reactors to Don Rumsfeld's good ol' buddy Saddam Husseing and the Iraqis took them out.
And in 1967, Israel attack the arab world. The arabs were just wargaming near the Israeli border when Israel decided that the risk of an arab attack was not worth putting up with and attacked its neighbours, taking them by surprise.