Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Now I dont usually like to post anything regarding India, but this article was just too intresting to let go… Apparently, the Chinese still think Auranchal Pardesh is Chinese…
Make sure to read near the end… “India cancelled a confidence-building visit to China by 107 senior civil servants. Why? Because Beijing refused to issue a visa to the one civil servant in the group who was from Arunachal Pradesh, ON THE GROUNDS THAT HE WAS ALREADY CHINESE AND DID NOT NEED ONE.” !!!
Hate to laugh, but that is quite funny!
Chinese seem very perturbed by the Indo-American nexus.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/06/15/ed.htm

By Gwynne Dyer

CHOICES usually involve a price, but people persist in believing that they can avoid paying it. That’s what the Indian government thought when it joined the American alliance system in Asia in 2005, but now the price is clear: China is claiming the whole Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, some 83,000 sq. kms of mountainous territory in the eastern Himalayas containing over a million people.

China has claimed Arunachal Pradesh for a century: during the Sino-Indian border war of 1962 Chinese troops briefly occupied most of the state before withdrawing and inviting India to resume negotiations. However, most Indians thought the dispute had been more or less ended during Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to New Delhi in April 2005, when the two sides agreed on “political parameters” for settling both the Arunachal Pradesh border dispute and another in the western Himalayas.

Indians assumed that the new “political parameters” meant that China would eventually recognise India’s control of Arunachal Pradesh. In return, India would accept China’s control of the Aksai Chin, a high-altitude desert of some 38,000 sq. kms next to Kashmir. And that might actually have happened, in the end – if India had not signed what amounts to a military alliance with the United States.

Informed Indians knew perfectly well that Wen Jiabao’s visit was a last-minute attempt to persuade India not to sign a ten-year military cooperation agreement with the United States. Two months later Pranab Mukherjee, then India’s foreign minister, went to Washington and signed the thing. Yet most people in New Delhi managed to convince themselves that Wen’s concessions during his visit were not linked to India’s decision about the American alliance.In June 2006 I spent two weeks in New Delhi interviewing Indian analysts and policy-makers about India’s strategic relations with the US and China. With few exceptions, their confidence that India could “manage” China’s reaction to its American alliance was still very high. “India knows what it is doing,” insisted Prem Shankar Jha, former editor of the Hindustan Times, citing confidential sources close to Prime Minister Singh. “It is not going to make China an enemy.”

On the face of it, India got a very good deal in the lengthy negotiations that led up to the military cooperation agreement. It got access not just to current US military technology but to the next generation of American weapons (with full technology transfer). The Indian military are predicted to buy $30 billion of US hardware and software in the next five years. They got all sorts of joint training deals, including US Navy instruction for Indian carrier pilots. And Washington officially forgave India for testing nuclear weapons in 1998.This was the only part of the deal that got much attention in Washington, where the Bush administration waged a long struggle (only recently concluded) to get Congress to end US sanctions against exporting nuclear materials and technologies to India. Stressing the military aspects of the new relationship would only rile the Chinese, who would obviously conclude that it was directed against them. Especially since America’s closest allies in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and Australia, have also now started forging closer military relations with India.

It took a while, but China was bound to react. Last November, just before President Hu Jintao’s first visit to India, the Chinese ambassador firmly stated that “the entire state (of Arunachal Pradesh) is a part of China.” This took New Delhi by surprise, defence analyst Uday Bhaskar told the Financial Times last week: “The Indians had taken the (2005) political parameters (for negotiating the border issue) as Chinese acceptance of the status quo.” They should have known better.

It’s mostly petty irritants so far, but they accumulate over time. Last month, for example, Indian Navy ships took part in joint exercises with the US and Japanese navies in the western Pacific, several thousand kilometres from home and quite close to China’s east coast. Admiral Sureesh Mehta, chief of naval staff, said the exercise had “no evil intent,” and two Indian warships also spent a day exercising with the Chinese navy to take the curse off it – but Beijing knows which exercise was the important one.

Also last month, India cancelled a confidence-building visit to China by 107 senior civil servants. Why? Because Beijing refused to issue a visa to the one civil servant in the group who was from Arunachal Pradesh, on the grounds that he was already Chinese and did not need one.

A year ago, Indian foreign policy specialists were confident that they could handle China’s reaction to their American deal. In fact, many of them seemed to believe that they had taken the Americans to the cleaners: that India would reap all the technology and trade benefits of the US deal without paying any price in terms of its relationship with its giant neighbour to the north.

But there was confidence in Washington, too: a quiet confidence that once India signed the ten-year military cooperation deal with Washington, its relations with China would automatically deteriorate and it would slide willy-nilly into a full military alliance with the United States. Who has taken whom to the cleaners remains to be seen. ––Copyright

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

i doubt this very much. China has good relations with Pakistan, who has a very, shall we say, interesting relationship with the US from decades.

Indian relations with the US are almost entirely trade and economy centric (which imho is a good thing). what minimal military cooperation exists is more along the lines of US trying to give India a sneak peek of what it can purchase from them.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

But Pakistan isnt a threat to Chinese intrests... While India has plans to be another regional super power...
China also know that nature of the Pakistani American relationshaip is very one sided, so there is no threat in Pak American relation for China..
The Article, mentions that Chinese are against he Indo-American defense deal and that the Chinese were trying to keep India from falling into the American camp.
India geting American weapons and technology obvioulsy would not be something China would be accepting off.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

china doesnt have any viable threat from india given that the real china is way far from indian borders (tibet is just undeveloped extremely-sparesely populated terrain). this is also the reason why china isnt worried about US military presence in Pak/Afghanistan. few coutries enjoy such wide natural buffers.

Re: indo-US cooperation, at this point, the US brings way more to the table for india than China's bi-annual claims and disclaims on sikkim and arunachal pradesh. if they want India to not have defence deals with the US, maybe its time to give up on the posturing for a bit. worry not china, we wont infect you with democracy. ;)

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor…

you started this thread in response to this thread na?..:hehe:. thinking that a similar situation is in india like in pak or afghanistan in 1970s or 1980s??..:hehe:. the only thing is, mujahideen will not be pushed from indias side and nor india is a small country for US to ignore it after using it.

http://www.paklinks.com/gs/showthread.php?t=256244

One thing is certain. US is definitely trying to use india to counter china. no doubt!. but even india has little options but to take help from US and there is nothing wrong in it. We have to feel confident about our security or defence. But whatever it is, if tommorow there is any internal turmoil in china (like tianmen), then india will be deep trouble created by chicoms as it would be portrayed as an external threat “occupying” “its” territory!. this could even happen without any turmoil in china.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

No no, I just opened this thread because China foreign policy is so weird..
The way they refused to issue a visa to the Auranchal Pardesh cival servant on the basis that he is already Chinese is just classic.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Maybe in your estimation, but im not sure the Chinese share that confidence...
If the article is anything to go by, then it seems China feels India might be used against them by the Americans...
Very slippery slope here, two countries, both possible emerging powers can very easily collide. I think antagonism is far more likely if both India and China truly start competing.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Is Hindustan going be the biggest casuallty in a cross-fire between US and China?

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

^^ well if China decides to invade Taiwan, India will have to pick sides, either it supports USA's efforts to help Taiwan or it supports China...

India cannot remain neutral as it will serve to alienate it self from USA as well as China

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

india is unaligned with china or US, has historically had luke-warm to cool ties with either govts. pakistan on the other hand has close military ties with both regimes. which country in south asia would be the first and foremost casualty/hard pressed to pick sides in case of the brilliantly realistic scenarios brought out by the last two posts? my money is on pakistan.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Likely scenario of taiwan being invaded by chinese, it will be conflict only with US and its allies. India is not an ally of US of A. Most likely Japan and South Korea may get into conflict with China. Most likely it will be Japan who will enter. Japan is slowly but surely building up its military. It boast of the best weapon system in the world.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

^^ will India cast a vote in the UN to condemn Chinese aggression against Taiwan if China does try to invade Taiwan?

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Why would China and US fight in the first place? US is china's biggest trading partner with China- why would China undo all that?

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

^^ any conflict between USA and China will result over Taiwan...

China is configuring its entire military for the invasion and conquest of Taiwan.

Taiwan gets its weapons from USA and so that will be the potential site of conflict.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

^^ exactly.. I dont think US and China are that naive to fight over India of all the issues. what's in India that'll made them fight? India has tons and tons of problems including India's increasing contribution to global warming etc. - Neither US nor China want to compound those problems.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

as always, i fully concur with moin pai's wise words.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor…

:omg:

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Thinking of India as a somebody that either US or China can or want to push around is over simplistic and perhaps even juvenile. China is trying hard to develop alternatives to US for a market. Africa is atleast 15 years away from being that and so India is the biggest market for them.

Militarilywe all know that conventional warfare doesn't gain territory anymore.

Witingly or unwittingly India has deep relations with Russia, is the apple of the US eyes right now and China's low hanging fruit for a market in near future. Pakistan could have been all that but ....without a stable political system that will never happen!

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

[quote]
well if China decides to invade Taiwan, India will have to pick sides, either it supports USA's efforts to help Taiwan or it supports China...

India cannot remain neutral as it will serve to alienate it self from USA as well as China
[/quote]

Democracy has an inbuilt system which allows the govt to say no and the Indians can always say "Look we have so many poor to feed thanks but we do not want any part in this show".. There would be intial outbursts, fallouts etc but then that will be slowly taken care of diplomatically. India's economy (the key) will give it some margin for flexibility. Turkey could say no to the US on Iraq war, politely.

Re: Indo-Chinese relations and the American factor...

Yeah, but India has taken sides in the past... During the Cold War India was very close to Russia... Despite that, India is now become increasingly pro American..
But Pakistan need not worry about trying to play both camps, eventually, Pakistan will choose the saide that best or remain neutral.
India doesnt have the same luxury, India will have a harder choice.