So now after India’s loss to Bangladesh I think India is in serious situation of getting eliminated. Lets look at different scenario.
One Assumption that I am making here is that every team will beat Bermuda.
Most Likely scenario: SL defeates Bangladesh
In this situation India will have to defeat SL and pray that on runrate they are better than Bangladesh. They cant beat SL on run rate as SL has beaten Bermuda with a huge margin. But then Bangladesh gets to play Bermuda last and they will know what is the runrate needed to qualify. Good thing is that If India beat Bangladesh on run rate, then they go to Superleague with 2 points and SL with Zero.
Less likely scenario: Bangladesh defeats SL.
In this situation, game between SL and India becomes a knock out game. Winner goes to superleague with Zero points and loser goes home. Bangladesh goes to Superleague with 2 points.
So bottom line is that Indis has to beat SL and pray that start aligns properly too. It is less probable for both to happen.
Who is writing Indian team Obituary.. Any volunteers?? I will be too busy doing MA&*^OD BA&^*OD.
second one would be best for india. But I dont want this indian team to get into super 8. Their body language was so horrible that any of them could have given inzy a competition. Team selection is in tatters. Batting order is a joke. Catching was terrible. They had given up in the first ten overs itself. Its pathetic and most shameful performance by the indian team
right now there is only one option - to catch the next available flight back home..kuch bhi bahana banao...say West Indies is sponsoring war in Kashmir...or the standard one of threat to players security
The only way India can make it to Super 8 and further is via batting and looking at their batting lineup, they do not have the same flow like that of WC '03. Still, Sachin can change it all around if he wants.
The only way India can make it to Super 8 and further is via batting and looking at their batting lineup, they do not have the same flow like that of WC '03. Still, Sachin can change it all around if he wants.
India has only 25% chance of making it to the next round.
For them to advance, they have to defeat Sri Lanka and maintain a high enough run rate to advance.
Sri Lanka and India were favorites to advance from this group, but India's defeat by Bangladesh has upset.
Sri Lanka won't underestimate the Bangladeshis and will most likely defeat them.
And if Bermuda which is all but guaranteed to lose all of its matches
So Summary:
Bangladesh Matches:
It won against India, will most likely win against Bermuda but lose to Sri Lanka
And as a result will advance to next round.
Sri Lanka Matches:
It won against Bermuda, will most likely win against Bangladesh
India matches:
It lost to Bangladesh and will most likely win against Bermuda
So all of this sets up the main match: Sri Lanka vs India
Who ever wins that advances. But India by losing to Bangladesh have to win at all costs to advance and have to have a higher run rate than Sri Lanka or Bangladesh
My guess, India is going out in the 1st round as well.
So Pakistan and India are both out in 1st round.
Hopefully this will help Pakistanis and Indians get their priorities in order
wow this is almost unbelievable
i still cant believe what just happened
Bangladesh have got the edge to move on, since they know exactly was to do in final game to get into super8stage, altho it might become a pressure situation as well
so i see only one scenario for India to progress, have to beat sri lanka, and the beat Bermuda by a HUGE margin, so they can put the pressure on Bangladeshis
but even if BD move to the next stage...they wont post much of a competition to rest of the teams..but India does sometime shwow hints of hidden talent :( i m just glad I havent seen a match in 3 years, was planning to watch this WC, but not anymore I guess haha)
mercenary2k, you are right with your analysis in post #11 & #15 that India is way behind in run-rate. So if it came down to India, SL, and Bangladesh with 4 points, SL and Bangladesh will move on because of run-rate.
India must not only beat Bermuda and SL, but also with huge margins. Just wins will not get it done.
Other scenarios are Bangladesh losing to Bermuda and SL, which is unlikely.
So now that India has won against Bermuda by 257 runs. India now has a healthy runrate.
lets look at scenario again....
Most likely Scenario: SL beats Bangladesh and Bangladesh beats Bermuda: In this case now India needs to defeat SL and hope that Bangladesh doesnt beat Bermuda with as big margin as SL and India did. I dont think Bangldesh would be able to beat bermuda with a margin of 250 but you never know. In this case India and SL moves to superleage. India with 2 points and SL with 0 points.
But if India loses to SL then SL and Bangladesh move to superleague. SL 2 point and Bangladesh 0 points.
2.Less Likely Scenario: Banlgadesh defeats SL and Bermuda: In this scenario winner of India vs SL andBangldesh goes to Superleague. Bangladesh with 2 point and other team with 0 points.
Conclusion: I think if India just beat SL then they would be able to make it to superleague because, I dont think Bangldesh can beat Bermuda by 250 runs.
In the final analysis the match between SL and India will most likely decide who goes forward.
From Indian point of view yes... SL and Bangladesh angle will be little different. SL can simply defeat Bangldesh by 100 runs and it will virtually make it impossible for bangladesh to top that NRR by beating Bermuda by 400 runs. :D