Indian Elections 2004 / Why the BJP lost? (MERGED)

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*Originally posted by Aejaz: *
F & B and Matsui,

I personally feel BJP would have been a better Government, reason being, if you look at the period when BJP was in opposition, there were so many Hindu/muslim conflicts including the Babri Masjid Incident (except for the Godhra Incident which again has many schools of thought)

Once BJP came into power we all noticed the diminnishing problems, BJP became a secular party, with The Babri Masjid on a back burner, and with slogans like India Shining etc.

Point I am trying to make is

BJP in opposition specially with Shiv Sena = problems galore ahead (Bad for India).

BJP in power again with Shiv Sena = to retain power will avoid any problems or conflicts (Good for India).
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I dont agree.
BJP became secular because they wante to be in power.In the state where they didnt need anyone's help we saw what happened. Hint hint : Gujrat.
I didnt have problem with Godhra incident but I had problem with which it was justified. Every government cant have problem but as long we accept it and have a process to fix it then it is fine.
On the other hand Congress has learnt its lesson from past and knows that they cant afford to take communalism lightly. They know it has costed them Bihar & UP.And If the continue they will never be seen again.

Anyone want to speculate on which country will be Sonia Ghandi's first visit as Prime Minister? Could give a very good indication of what direction India's foreign policy will take.

Bilkul Sahi. !!!
I salue India for this. :smiley: :k:

Another Acheivement: Poor country ,600 Million Voters and Results available in few hours. :k:

so we're clear about one thing. The congress cannot afford to be Nehruvian, communal, anti- peace process or anti- growth. It has to show that it is BETTER than bjp or it's bye bye mata hari and hello advani.

ahmadjee - the bjp only put on an act of being religious. that was it's mistake, it overdid it. at heart indians may be very religious, but they dislike religion coming out of their ears. that is why bjp concentrated on reforms, but because it was stuck with the religious parties like shiv sena, it had to pay lip service to them too. so your friends were pro-bjp the reformists, not the mandir-masjid babblers.

It can happen only in India: Italian scribe
Yahoo

New Delhi, May 13 (IANS) Standing outside Sonia Gandhi's residence, Maria Grazia Coggiola could not help marvel at Indian democracy.

"This can happen only in India," the Italian journalist, who writes for Il Giornale of Milan, said.

"I would be hesitant to vote for a person of Indian origin if she were contesting for the post of prime minister in my country," she told IANS as enthusiastic, young Congress supporters wildly waved party flags and danced to the bhangra drumbeat and Punjabi rock outside Gandhi's residence at her verdant 10, Janpath residence.

Simona, her seven-year old daughter, hung to her with one hand and clutched a large poster of Gandhi in the other, a gift from a Congress supporter.

"Back home, she (Gandhi) is a foreigner. She had left home a long, long time ago and she hardly visits her hometown (Orbassano near Turin)," Coggiola said.

Gandhi had ceased to be news for Italian papers a long time ago but now that will change, she said.

Looking at the wild celebrations all around, she said she was afraid for Gandhi if she became prime minister. "It is going to be very difficult for her. No one can solve all problems of India. And if she fails they will say 'we told you so'."

Leading a group of jubilant supporters in was Premchand, president of the National Students Union of India, the students' wing of the Congress, in Jawaharlal Nehru University.

"The people have spoken about Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin issue. It is a clear signal to the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not to raise the issue again," he said.

karina, Actually most of them do admire Vajpayee more so than BJP. They consider him to be an honest leader & one of a kind. They also considered him patriotic and genuinely have the good of people & country in his heart. And I consider their support more so about him than about BJP & their buddies.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ahmadjee: *
karina, Actually most of them do admire Vajpayee more so than BJP. They consider him to be an honest leader & one of a kind. They also considered him patriotic and genuinely have the good of people & country in his heart. And I consider their support more so about him than about BJP & their buddies.
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I am not sure with this observation.it might be correct.Chances are that those Indian that you interact are of middle class family. Indian Middle class and upper middle class is strong BJP supporter.Actually BJP is a North and West Indian middle class Phenomenon. Too bad they didnt go out to vote.
There are many among them who agree with its communal policies( read those who were happy with riots in Gujrat & Destrction of Babri Masjid) and there are substantial number of people who are there just because they hated congress.

^ that is absolutely an idiotic statement. Upper middle class Indians agreed with the communal violence? Are you smokin crack?

Your latter assessment is probably more inclusive of the phenomenon. Middle and upper middle class Indians were tired of being shckaled byt he father knows best chutiyapa of the gandhis. These young's better fuigure it out soon or it is bye bye...

We are the smartest democracy!
SUDEEP MUKHIA

TIMESOFINDIA.COM THURSDAY, MAY 13, 2004 07:13:28 PM ]

Don’t be surprised if the media lines up outside the offices of exit pollsters asking for their money back. If there is a definitive picture of India Shining, it’s got to be the result of the 2004 Lok Sabha election.

Very often India’s been labelled as the largest democracy, but that is mainly due to the fact that it has the weight of sheer numbers behind it. What India should be labelled as is the smartest democracy in the world. By far the smartest.

Every exit poll, every political pundit and every single politician who claimed to have read the mind of the electorate has got it so totally wrong. The Indian electorate, the great unwashed masses, have fooled them yet again.

If that’s not smart enough, the ordinary Indian has shown a mind more discerning than a master sommelier, than a buyer of rare art.

Let’s get this straight: the vote that was put into the EVMs was not a clear pro-Congress vote. It was more an anti-BJP vote. Maybe it’s a little unfair to single out the BJP, but they were the largest party in the coalition.

Great Expectations

So how did the BJP get it so wrong? The biggest culprit is the India Shining packaging it created for itself. It’s always easy to argue that India is shining in parts and it’s not in other parts.

That is what the poor BJP leadership tried to explain on several platforms and soapboxes lent to it by the media. In an interview to this website, the second-in-line and deputy PM L K Advani said in so many words : India has just started shining, the whole of the country is yet to shine.

All very reasonable, but what did the India Shining campaign do? It created expectation . There was no way that this expectation could be met in the six years the NDA coalition it led was in power.

Development was made into an election issue in the assembly elections as well as the general election. But simply not enough development on the ground to fulfill the expectation that the slogan created.

Sure, the economy is booming, forex is filling up, the markets are peaking. But that affects a very minute part of the electorate. The rest of them are just left expecting. But, hang on a sec, what about Laloo: he never delivers, but he still wins! But then Laloo is the master marketer. He doesn’t create expectation, he creates the illusion of empowerment at best.

Poor Minority Rapport

The BJP also got some basic calculations wrong. Take the Muslim vote, where a substantial growth could have come from. But again, it played its cards badly. Making statements about peace with Pakistan at a convention to address Muslim voters was a man-made disaster: it re-equated the Indian Muslim with Pakistanis.

The overtly clever move to praise Mulayam Singh in UP was meant to split the Muslim vote. Fielding posterboy candidates like Muslim leader Arif Mohammad Khan (who lost eventually). None of this worked. What could have worked was to have said to the Muslim voter, look, let’s work on modernising madrasas, let’s be proud of the fact that while the rest of the Muslim world is in turmoil, our citizens are completely out of all that.

What would definitely have worked was to have justice done to those who got affected during the Gujarat riots. Is it any wonder then that the BJP has been stripped to half in that state?

Alliance Error

The BJP got its alliances wrong. AIADMK cost it the entire Tamil Nadu. It couldn’t hold on to INLD in Haryana. Its biggest ally, the TDP, got wiped out in Andhra, because of the same reason that the BJP lost across the nation—creating the illusion of development by showcasing a ‘shining’ pocket or two.

The story has been told: deliver or perish. The Congress has got an unexpected windfall. If it thinks it now knows the voter, it better leave packaging to the marketing MBAs.

Politics is far more serious a matter than selling soap. But it’s up to the Indian politicians, really. They are being judged by the world’s smartest voters.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Matsui: *
I agree with Xtreme. Plus Shiv Sena is more of a Maharashtrian phenomenon. People in Calcutta would laugh at these goons. The good thing is that BJP has a sizeable majority, watch for quick elections if the economy takes a dive.
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Not even Maharashtrian, they have no credibility outside of Mumbai.

i have only one fear. what will happen to our 100 billion reserve? the congress is known for it's corruption. plus it might spend recklessly to make poor indians 'feel good'. it has already promised to supply free electricity to andhra farmers.

Poor Minority Rapport

The BJP also got some basic calculations wrong. Take the Muslim vote, where a substantial growth could have come from. But again, it played its cards badly. Making statements about peace with Pakistan at a convention to address Muslim voters was a man-made disaster: it re-equated the Indian Muslim with Pakistanis.<<

does this mean no more cricket with pakistan? :crying:

FB and matsui, u’re both right and wrong. FB, a lot of upper class hindus may have felt that way because of shahbano case, haj subsidy, congress communal legacy etc, but for short period only. today u will find it hard to find upper class brahmins condoning babri like acts.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Matsui: *
^ that is absolutely an idiotic statement. Upper middle class Indians agreed with the communal violence? Are you smokin crack?

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No..You are smoking crack.. I lived in India through out 90s and saw how middle class and upper middle class in North and West supported communalist policies of BJP and its goons. Believe me or not but poors of India are more secular than middle class.

Cant say same about south and East.

Coming back to Issue of What went wrong with BJP.I think 2 thing is very important.. First being overconfidence .They took some really stupid decisions because of that. One being aligning themselves with corrupt fat lady Jaylalitha from south.Result NDA got ZERO in Tamil Nadu.

2nd being ,not able to get his vote base middles class's ass moving. This has always been the problem with BJP's vote base. Many dont vote unless they know that BJP is in trouble. This time they though it is smooth sailing and sat at home watching TV.

2nd being ,not able to get his vote base middles class’s ass moving. This has always been the problem with BJP’s vote base. Many dont vote unless they know that BJP is in trouble. This time they though it is smooth sailing and sat at home watching TV.<<

:hehe: so when u applying for post of bjp advisor?

karina, the corruption might be an issue of concern but if the congress actually spends those reserves to give better access/services & welfare to the poor than what's so alarming about it? Isn't it what governments are all about?

Nah…Not Intrested.I am thinking of being advisor to Laloo.I think he has potential.
By the way…wasnt my observation correct. :smiley:

^ ahmad, the problem is when you spend the reserves while at the same time continue the subsidies, enforce regulations that curb export driven industries and trade. Then you end up with a balance of payment crises like in 1991. Current accounts need to be watched...

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by fair_&_balance: *

Nah...Not Intrested.I am thinking of being advisor to Laloo.I think he has potential.
By the way...wasnt my observation correct. :D
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correct yaar, but just dont' predict laloo will become pm

ahmedjee, matsui is right. actually i dont' understand what he said but it sounds right. all i know is that spending money on the poor doesn't work, unless it's to create jobs which create further wealth. wealth erosion is never the answer. the congress left us bankrupt, they'd better not do it again.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by karina: *

correct yaar, but just dont' predict laloo will become pm

ahmedjee, matsui is right. actually i dont' understand what he said but it sounds right. all i know is that spending money on the poor doesn't work, unless it's to create jobs which create further wealth. wealth erosion is never the answer. the congress left us bankrupt, they'd better not do it again.
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I wa skiddign about Laloo. I am pissed of some outcomes. People voite out best CMs like Naidu & Krishna.And non-prformers idiots like Modi,Laloo,Mulayam never lose.

Talking back to congress taking us to bankcruptcy. Well Congress was one who took out of bankcruptcy too. The guy called Manmohan Singh. And at that time BJP opposed him. All this tall claim by BJP that economy is doing great because of them is hollow.Manmohan took reforms to such a level that BJP or any other party didnt have any option but to take it further.

Once again Indian democracy proves it works. 650 million voters!