In Depth Military Analysis and Projections

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
1

Take this opportunity to predict the outcome of the Operation as you think it will turn out. Here’s my prediction.

1 - Intensive bombing for the first 3 days of the Operation. Destroying whatever is left of the defensive apparatus of Iraqi dictatorial and tyrant regime.

2- A double-up march to Baghdad (by day 4th of the conflict). Reach Baghdad on day 6.

  1. Urban battles for 2 days.

  2. All Saddam forces surrender by day 7th.

  3. Saddam and his sons no where to be found. (My guess, hiding in some region of Syria). His Generals are killed and/or surrender.

OK, now let’s hear what everyone predicts the outcome of the Operation will be. We will revisit this topic in about two weeks, and see who was on the mark.

Please use this space for Projectins only, and let’s not turn this into a Political debate.

2

1.Intensive bombing that will result in massive causalities of civilians.
2. US forces reach Baghdad by 3rd or 4th day.
3. Urban battles that will last a few weeks but we will never hear about it from CNN, Fox news or other media outlets.
4. Saddam forces will surrender on day 3.
5. Saddam and his sons will be killed by US.
6. Halliburton, Bechtel, Flour and other oil companies open offices and stake claim on the huge oil reserves of Iraq.
7. Common Iraqi people will not gain any benefit from the free flowing oil to the west.
8. More attacks on the US soldiers, embassies, and concerns both home (US) and abroad.

Finally, this war will not solve any problems that face US today, but will greatly increase the hatred/dislike of US in the Muslim world. In turn, it will create more OBLs.

3

  • Two week of intensive bombing on so called strategic military installations, (Iraq doesn’t have any), 100 civilians dead, which are shrugged off as collateral damage.

  • First week, Saddam fires off all his missiles towards Israel, keeping his fingers crossed to get her into the game. Hopefully none with bio-cham weapons.

  • Second week, out of desperation he blows off all his oil reserves and the world has another catastrophic environmental disaster.

  • Third week, ground forces move in, have some resistance along the way, close to another 100 civilians die, Saddam is no where to be found.

  • Fourth week, Baghdad falls, favorite Iraqi General in charge, US media showing the happy Iraqis.

  • Fifth week, civil war breaks out in south and north, but it’s considered to be marginal, US B-52 bombers help the friendly Iraqis and no civilian is dead (officially). Few incidences of “terror” where American forces come under fire but nothing major.

  • Sixth week, WMD are found!!!!! Few bearded people are captured from Baghdad “suspected” to be members of Al-Qaida.

4

you missed out 'training camps' and containers 'possibly' used to hold Anthrax and other deadly agents.

Also multiply that 100 by another 100 to get the real tally

5

Week One:

1) Bombardment begins, and lasts for 2 days. City of Tikrit is pounded beyone belief. Saddams palaces obliterated. The same with Baath party headquarters. Simultaneous attacks occur all over the country with little resistance..(Bombardment yes, Tikrit probably, palaces yes, Baath HQ yes, simultaneous air yes)

2) Basra falls within 12 hours.(Surrounded yes, taken no)

3) As soon as bombardment begins, small rockets fired into Kuwait containing VX/Mustard Gas.(rockets yes, gas no)

4) Western Desert, H1 H2 H3 airfields are taken by troops. Troops flood in from Jordan.(H2 and H3 taken, Troops from Jordan yes)

5) Saddam attempts to blow dams on tigris and euphrates rives. many oil wells are blown. More Chemical weapons attacks are launched against US troops moving towards Baghdad, March is rerouted around deadly area. (Dams no, oil wells-some, Chem weapons-no)

6)Within 3 days troops are at the Western approach of Baghdad, coming in a large armor column from Saudi. (Three days approaching Baghdad yes, western approach by 101st Airborne)

7)Northern areas are flooded with airborne troops. Turkey relents, and by the end of the week, reinforcements are coming in from the Turkey border. (Airborne troops-yes, but slowly, Turks do not relent)

Week 2

1)Baghdad surrounded. Civil unrest peaks as the Shia population rises up from Saddam city. (Baghdad more or less surrounded. Schedule slowed by two days due to sandstorms. No uprisings yet)

2) No one can find Saddam, presumed to be in bunker. Hours later an Iraqi military general emerges and says that Saddam and his sons are dead, and that he is incharge of the military. (Where IS Saddam? Cave? Bunker? Flunkies now reading "speaches and letters" from Saddam . Not a lot of Republican Guard Generals left apparently. )

3) Negociations take place with the general. He reluctantly agrees that he will not be running the country, but he is assured a place in the constitutional debate.

4)US troops never enter the city of Baghdad, but maintain order in the outskirts, everywhere but Tikrit. Another republican Guard General supervises the city of Tikrit. (US troops will not enter Baghdad)

5) Problems persist in the North with Kurds exacting revenge, and flooding into the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.

Week 3

1) Troops are rushed into the northern areas that were originally assigned to take Baghdad. Turkey threatens that Kurds are seizing oilfields, and will set up the beginnings of a lucrative Kurdish state.

2) US consolidates it's hold on Northern Oilfields and issues ultimatum to Kurds to cease revenge.

3) Additional US troops flood into Basra, and by the end of the week, most parts of the country are stabilized.

6

^ OG, with all due respect - one would get the impression from reading your precise military account, that civilians don't even exist anywhere in Iraq. What happens to these groups - Kaleem managed to discuss at least, in depth, the issue of civilians during the military operation.

7

Here are my predictions, which I posted yesterday. They are not as indepth as some of you experts, but they pretty much convey what I estimate. In two words, "Another Afghanistan".

I suspect the Republican Guard will again fold similar to 1991 with no worthwhile fight. If there is no internal revolt, even then the tons of bombs in the first day or so will demolish the Republican Guard anyway. Saddam will disappear and the 'Coalition of the Willing' will just march on to Baghdad. There will remain pockets of resistance here and there in urban warfare, but will be too isolated to be meaningful. There will be no torching of oil wells, no Al-samoud (or scuds) flying anywhere, no chemical and biological war. Nothing. Total and utter surrender. A non-war, if there is such a term.

Its not a war anyway. Its invasion. Pure and simple.

8

  1. US fires off about 3000 cruise missiles with dodgy gyro's built by a pigeon enthusiast from a NY firm.

  2. Cruise missiles circle high above Baghdad then head back to Persian Gulf settle for a while on a remote island leave several droppings.

  3. Cruise missiles from a flock then head off back home across the Atlantic to roost in the big apple.

  4. The 250 000 ‘allied’ troops in the gulf region all contract a nasty cold and are sent for bed rest and advised to take on plenty of fluids.

  5. Saddam and son’s decide to take George Bush up on the exile deal and start up a roving circus. Saddam and Son’s is a great hit across Europe but gets mediocre reviews in China where the state run circus is still favored above all others.

  6. France find a remote reef and test several more nuclear bombs all tattooed with Bush Jr’s face, public opinion at home is on a high, pictures of the explosions are reported in the press as ‘Bushrooms’.

  7. Western soil companies are granted leases to enter Iraq for lucrative oil contracts; primary exploration activities suggest that there is little in the way of oil other than palm date and coconut.

  8. Bush Jr, after having several therapist sessions to overcome his fear of pretzels heads off home and eats a pretzel live on TV playing to the assembled journalists and promptly chokes and dies. Newspaper headlines the following day read “Saddam and Son’s acrobatic elephant ‘Claire short’ is on her last legs”.

  9. The world goes on; I get a new office with a view of the Nile.

  10. There is no 10; lists should only run to single figures….can’t say many people want to look that far into the future.

9

Nadia,

As you and I discussed in another thread, William Arkin found that most Iraqi's found that the safest place for Iraqi civilains during the first Gulf war was home in their beds.

I believe that the biggest threat to Iraqi civilians is indiscriminant Iraqi anti-aircraft fire, latent chemical weapons, and civil insurrection. The worst possibilities exist in Saddam City in the South of Baghdad, and in the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. Years of repression and ethnic cleansing are far more dangerous than US bombs.

Ultimately within three weeks or so, sanctions will be lifted, a man who has murdered, by some estimates, a million Iraqis will be gone, and the Iraqis will have the opportunity to forge a better country.

The title of this thread is "Military Analysis". Please do not attempt to paint me as unfeeling because I responded to the issue. We have had more than one discussion on civilian risks.

10

Day 1: US fulfills promise by dropping more bombs in Iraq on the first day than were dropped in the entire Gulf War I. Iraqi regular army troops suitably shocked and awed. In early hours, Iraq attempts to and does launch a few chemically laden Scuds: targets are Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Day 2 (daylight): US troops seize the majority of Iraq’s key oil fields. Leaflets dropped on remaining regular army forces advising them to watch the night sky to witness the detonation of the Mother of All Bombs. Massive bombing continues on Republican Guard positions and command and control facilities.

Day 2 (darkness): A couple of MOABs light the night sky. Massive bombing continues.

Day 3: Most of Iraq’s regular army lays down their weapons and surrenders or defects. Most Southern and Northern cities in Iraq are in control of US and allied forces. Iraqi people are rejoicing in the streets. Broadcasts of the happy and cheering Iraqi people are flooded into Baghdad on a continuous basis. Saddam hunkers down in a bunker and Republican Guard uses Iraqi people as shields and set up shop in schools, hospitals, mosques and residential areas.

Days 4, 5 and 6: Baghdad under siege. Leaflet drops. Broadcasts non-stop. Selective bombing of Republican Guard and command and control facilities continues. US and allied troops mop up in all areas except Baghdad.

Day 7: Several key military leaders in Saddam’s inner circle surrender with their Republican Guardsmen. The noose around Saddam’s bunker gets tighter. Saddam orders the indiscriminant use of any remaining chemical weapons on advancing troops in downtown Baghdad.

Days 8 through 10: Pockets of loyalist Republican Guards in Baghdad are killed, captured or surrender. With few remaining loyal troops and no more WMD to unleash, Saddam kills himself. War over.

11

Sorry, OG, i certainly did not intend to paint you as "unfeeling" although i realize that is entirely how i came sounding out. That was wrong of me and i sincerely apologize.

12

:flower1:

13

Fierce bombing from air for 3 days, "airports", "bridges", "hide-outs" (which will later on turn out to be civilian places) bombed to sand.

Unknown number of Civilians will die, end of war media will tell us that "only" 73 civilian died, and we will have doctors admitting that.

Saddam will leave the country, who cared about him anyway?

Lots of oilfield on fire.

-- lots of people on streets (not in Iraq) protesting against War, who cares?

Saddam will mis-fire some missiles here and there before running away.

The so called "War" will last 5-7 days.

Then media will start focusing on next "axis of evil".

Some embassies around the world will get bombed/threatened.

-- more people on street protesting against war, who cares?

Somewhere in the world, someone will be talking---->>>"you take care of these oil-wells, you that, you this, and we'll take care of the rest "

Media ---->> not many civil casualties, because of "accurate bombing".

14

It’s approaching day 5, and just look at some of the predictions by the pro-US side in this thread for what would happen by day 4. :hehe:

15

The Iraqi resistance has been beyond expectations to me. Do you know if Arabs from other countries have entered Iraq to fight?

16

Well it's not too late... everyone is welcome to revise their "analysis" based on the current situation.

so how long would I give Baghdad??.. hmm two weeks max.. before they lay down their arms, defect or are otherwise overpowered.

17

PA yeah 2 weeks max, but i suspect that they will try to do a last hurrah prior to that. I have my suspicions based on the fact that it appears that the entire Iraqi armed forces are in hiding..i mean with the exception of those that waved the white flag.

18

.....and the entire US army using defective GPS systems are at the moment speeding through Australia meeting little resistance apart from the odd irate sheep farmer who incidently has taken out several helicopters and half a division with his sheep shearers.

19

Thap - LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL :ROTFL:

20

I was being serious!