^ thanks for the study. Even though I disagree with some of the causes, unfortunately for pakistan, the results are as repoirted.One of my theories is that the so called "economic policy" has been simply a gathering of populist and feudalist tactical steps, entirely dependent upon the power du jor with zero chance of completion. Pakistan I'd guess has more partially complete and incomplete projects than completed ones because of that. Everyone knows jumping across a puddle (in this case a well) there is no such thing as 50% success.
It is my country's birthday. Let's celebrate what we have first, before whining and shedding tears about the stuff we should have.
Nowhere in the original essay, that I claimed Pakistan to be model for anyone else. I don't want to see Pakistan paraded at the catwalks of show-shaw-list fashion competition.
Sure the Georgio Armanis of economic systems would rather have Chavez the "Qatil Hussina". Well the news is that we do not want to compete in socialist fashion shows.
If you go read it again, scope of the essay is limited to our region.
So quoting international figures is meaningless. These global figures are nice, but they ignore the soil we till, the water we drink, and the air we breathe. As the soil, the water, and the air changes from region to region.
We started off in 1947 just like many countries in our region. So it makes sense to bring the reality check based on our peers.
May be we lack the buzz of India, the industriousness of China, the petroleum reserves of Iran and CAS, the tribalism of Afghanistan, and the beauty of Bangla people.
May be! May be Not!
I just want to take a pause and say, phew! we did all right. We proved wrong all those dire predictions, and survived.
Let me ask you all just one simple question. When you meet someone, do you say "Man you look so sick!", or "God is not with you", or "your skin is falling off".
You on the other hand, follow the proper etiquette and say "May peace be with you", May you get bigger and better, and you look great, and May Allah bless you with more.
Why then you want to treat Pakistan any different? Why do you throw away all your commonsense, all your etiquettes, all your respect, when you "meet Pakistan"?
Why? The only thing that comes to mind is that you the "Nookta Cheen" Cheen ba Cheen" harbor deep hatred, utter disgust, and total lack of respect for my country.
They say (if we had been a honest nation) if Pakistan had followed the golden economic year of its history - 1955-56, we would have been spending only 20% of the budget on defence but the volume of that 20% would have been many times above the current volume.
Mostar sahib, Why is this "Hai main mer gayee", "mujhay loot liaa", "Mari Ijjat Kharab ker di", "Mijh ko chewnti kaat di" etc etc. so prevelant in the so-called "well-wishers" of Pakistan?
Sure we made mistakes. Bhattoo's show-shaw-lism was terrible. But hey we asked for it. We supported it. Fortunately some of us have learned form it, and others are still stuck with Islamic-show-show-lism.
All in all, Pakistan did all right. We survived. As the essay tries to show that we are doing either the same or in many cases, much better than our neighbors.
You go out, the petrol stations fill your car, the mall provide you with the latest gadgets, the universities are 100% full with bright young men and women. The roads are well traveled, the hotels, restaurants, the truck stops, the tonga stands are overflowing with food and fruit.
And yet you all want to put a "mourning black dress" and cry?
^ good speech again. If you stop with that and not try to invent erroneous statistical measures of progress, nobody will refute you.When you meet a stratnger or aquintance you make facetious greetings such as 'you look great' etc. But when you meet true friends and relatives is when you get to hear you have a spot your nose or that you look terriible.Don't you think the latter brings you more value?
It is completely wrong assumption that one dollar in budget of Pakistan government in value is same as one dollar in budget of American government. That is an statement very far from truth.
Exact value of dollar (and its impact) in different countries is impossible to evaluate. Nevertheless, rough average is that, one dollar in Pakistan is worth in value most likely 7 dollars in USA (or more). That means, on average what one dollar could buy in USA, 9 Rupees would buy in Pakistan. Something would be more expensive in Pakistan and some in USA. But if one takes into account cost of all things and how people spend and on what they spend, on average a dollar is worth much less than Rs 10 (that is just an estimate … could be a rupee more or a rupee less).
Anyhow, that is not the whole story, as there are other differences that one can should take into account.
For instance:
One dollar for extremely poor in Pakistan (bottom 10 percent of population) is worth in value, most likely around 30 dollars in USA. [Example, an extremely poor individual living on his own in Pakistan may survive on Rs 1000 a month … and in same way, extremely poor individual adult living on his own in USA may need at least $500 a month to survive (most likely more) … ].
On the other hand, one dollar for poor family in Pakistan (bottom 20 percent of population) is worth in value, most likely around 15 dollars in USA. [A very poor family of 5 people in Pakistan may survive on Rs 5000 a month (Rs 1000 for rent in cheapest area … or free rent living on illegally occupied land ... and Rs 4000 for rest of their needs). To have similar life in USA for such family of five, they might need at least $ 1250 a month … (has to pay maybe $700 a month on rent … $550 for 5 to live .. that is food, clothing, travelling, medical expenses and amenities). $1250 a month is roughly 15 times Rs 5000 a month.
For middle income family, on average one dollar in Pakistan is worth around 7 dollars in USA. [A family of 5 on Rs 35000 a month (paying Rs 10000 rent for a decent 3 bed room flat … rest going on other needs) could easily live better if not same as one in USA on $4000 a month (where maybe $1500 going on 3 bed reasonable flat and rest for other needs)]. $4000 a month is roughly 7 times Rs 35000 a month.
Whereas for rich in Pakistan (top 20 percent of population), one dollar is worth in value, most likely 4 dollars in USA. [A family of 4 on income of Rs 200000 a month … with 1000 sq yd luxuriously built house in best area of the country and having maybe 5 to 6 servants to look after that, can certainly have better life than one on $13000 a month in USA .. who may afford at most a modest house in middle class locality with maybe one servant]. $13000 a month is roughly 4 times Rs 200000 a month.
But then, even for richest Pakistanis (those who travel abroad all the time and spend a large number of days abroad), one dollar in Pakistan must be worth at least twice what it is worth in USA.
As for government, surprisingly … one dollar is less worth in value for American government than American public. Whereas, one dollar is worth in value, more for Pakistan government than for Pakistan public (maybe one dollar for Pakistan government is worth in value equal to 8 to 10 dollars what it is worth to American government) … Reason is that, most of government expenses goes on paying employees (labour of all sorts), and wages in Pakistan is maybe around 12 to 15 times less than USA. [Starting July 2007, Rs 4600 a month is minimum pay in Pakistan; that comes to Rs 55000 a year or around $900 a year … 12 times that wages would be $11800 a year ... obviously minimum wage in American government jobs cannot be less than $12000 a year ... most likely more].
Just imagine: Pakistan has around 600 thousands personals in Pakistan army. I think that total cost of paying their wages could be no more than $1.2 billion (72 billion rupees … on average Rs 10,000 a month) to Pakistan. For American government, just to pay their wages would be at least $15 billions (on average $ 25,000 a year).
A school teacher can cost Pakistan government $1500 a year (average of Rs 8000 a month), whereas it could cost American government at least 17 times that ($25,000 … most likely more … A teacher cost on average more than £25000 ($50000) a year to British government).
Even today, one can have 5 course meals in best Pakistani restaurant for less than Rs 500 per head. A worse food with worse service in UK expensive resturants could cost around Rs 5000 per head. Even today for Rs 1000 a person can hire a taxi for whole day in Karachi. In UK it would cost one way trip of less than 5 miles to pay that amount to cab.
Even today one can buy a 3 bed flat in cheapest areas of Karachi at less than Rs 10 lac ($15000), whereas there are many flats in London that can cost over 25 million pounds to buy … yes over 25 million pounds (over $50 million for a flat) … or more than 3 billion rupees for a flat. Though cheapest 3 bed flat in most undesirable places of London could be around £180000, and on average 3 bed flats could be around £250000 (still too expensive compare to Pakistan).
Saleem - thanks for such a detailed original analysis.One thing Ithat surprised me is the average salary of 25K you've quoted for a soldiier in the USA. My impression is that it is atleast 35k base at entry level plus benefits to make it more like 50k plus.Your entry level cops make 30K in most towns, so I'd think the average wage of a soldier to be much higher.Anyway, great post that hopefully puts to bet antiobl's false metrics.
Saleem - thanks for such a detailed original analysis.One thing Ithat surprised me is the average salary of 25K you've quoted for a soldiier in the USA. My impression is that it is atleast 35k base at entry level plus benefits to make it more like 50k plus.Your entry level cops make 30K in most towns, so I'd think the average wage of a soldier to be much higher.Anyway, great post that hopefully puts to bet antiobl's false metrics.
Brother, it is nothing to do with antibol's false metrics. Actually there is concept in economics that eventually in free world, prices and wages finds a level that is same and should be same all over the world. But that is ideal situation. That means antibol is absolutely right in that sense (where ideal situation exists) but unfortunately, world is not ideal nor the world economical realities are ideal. Actually, that ideal realities does not exists even within many countries. If ideal situation existed than one dollar anywhere in the world would have had same value.
[For ideal situation, movement of labour, technology and goods should be absolutely free. Even opportunities should be same (or similar for all). That means no borders and no nationalities. No religious, cultural, social constraints amongst people. In such environment, labour, prices of goods and services would find a level that would be same all over the world, or at least would have same parameters for valuation]
I have not gone into something more complicated, where if one gets into that, one would find that what GDP one really sees is much different than what it really is. That concept of GDP (that is more practical and real too) is more pro what we have in Pakistan and Muslim societies ... more conducive to Islam … but than …
Anyhow, you are right that American soldiers are getting more than what I quoted, but I tried to be most conservative there, and quoted a figure where no one would dispute about it to be too high :).
......that surprised me is the average salary of 25K you've quoted for a soldiier in the USA. My impression is that it is at least 35k base at entry level plus benefits to make it more like 50k plus.
Depends on the Service. Entry level sailor makes $550 a month + room and board. That figure makes his pay around $7000K per year. Off course it costs US Navy to provide the food and shelter. However you guys are talking about direct payroll expenses.
...... rough average is that, one dollar in Pakistan is worth in value most likely 7 dollars in USA (or more). .....
What about the multiples of our region? Iran Afghanistan China and India? Are they 7? higher or lower?
With your multiple, it means Pakistani government can buy $210 billion ($30x7) worth of goods and services in a year, compared to $3000 billions of US budget.
Even though the multiple of 7 is at best anecdotal, I'll consider it for a moment. Why? Because your multiple makes Pakistan look even better ($210 billion) vs. my original comparison based on $30 billion.
It simply shows that the original essay was much more conservative and still made Pakistan look better than the "Main to mar hee gayee" BIMARU attitude.
Wake up guys and quit jabbing at Pakistan. Please.
Mostar sahib, Why is this "Hai main mer gayee", "mujhay loot liaa", "Mari Ijjat Kharab ker di", "Mijh ko chewnti kaat di" etc etc. so prevelant in the so-called "well-wishers" of Pakistan?
Well yar Pakistan have done too much against the predictions of its enemies that It would soon disappear from the world map. But we would have done far far better if we were honest to this country.
Depends on the Service. Entry level sailor makes $550 a month + room and board. That figure makes his pay around $7000K per year. Off course it costs US Navy to provide the food and shelter. However you guys are talking about direct payroll expenses.
What about the multiples of our region? Iran Afghanistan China and India? Are they 7? higher or lower?
With your multiple, it means Pakistani government can buy $210 billion ($30x7) worth of goods and services in a year, compared to $3000 billions of US budget.
Even though the multiple of 7 is at best anecdotal, I'll consider it for a moment. Why? Because your multiple makes Pakistan look even better ($210 billion) vs. my original comparison based on $30 billion.
It simply shows that the original essay was much more conservative and still made Pakistan look better than the "Main to mar hee gayee" BIMARU attitude.
Wake up guys and quit jabbing at Pakistan. Please.
Pakistan Paindabaad.
I liked ur positive attitude and it is really good to see someone other than whiners and moaners, i stil see people do not want to see other side of the picture and most of them are the one who are or whose idealogy is against the existance of Pakistan. These people will reject any positive trend or try to "keRay Nikalna" efforts in every development project in Pakistan. cause these two things will make things difficult for them.
ur analysis does not says that Pakistan is in an ideal status, and problems in economy, law and order still exist. but one can clearly see that even this little light of hope on the end tunnel is not acceptable for these kind of people.
Not all of whinners and moaners are against Pakistan, some are born like that, they criticise every one for their own failure... normally known as loosers in developed countries..
Good Work Anitobl, i really liked ur way of thinking for Pakistan.
^ if I have ever seen a bleating sheep that doesn't want to use the brain cells kind of opinion, there is one right there!Let's see:1. Naievity and lying to oneself is called positive attitude? 2. Calling critics whiners and losers - now that's a healkthy sign of positive attitude3. It's one thing to receive self gratification by deluding oneself with false poisuitives; but trying to posit a economic theory is a great service that will ensure current sorry state......because you're thinking and fooling yourself and others that somehow things are getting better.Things are NOT getting better. Name a suignificant achievement in past 5 years in the fields of economic development, politics, engineering, medicine, scientific research, social development, governance, poverty reduction, child development, education, regional peace.......Come on guys
^^
First of all, let me give a hint that whinners and moaners always wants every one else to cry with them. and if anyone doesn't then they forget their so called "pain" and start condeming them. thats their attitude and can be seen right in thi thread from the whiners/loosers or what ever they are.
Please stop whinning and wash your eyes, clear ur mind have glass of milk or juice ( don't drink the leftovers of the costumers) try to take responsibility and try not to think from others mind. then u can see the acheivements Pakistan had made during last decade.
Iam not giving any credit to Mush, people on this forum may have noticed that i don't like him and normally stand against him when he is wrong.
U want to see what Pakistan has achieved,
Don't have to go long distance, just log on to Karachi Stock Exchange Site and perform ur analysis there ( if u know how to perform market analysis).
If that doesn't convince u, then look at the Cash Inflow from 1997 - 2007, make a graph ( again if u know how to do that).
Still want more, Look how many banks and infrastructure development projects have been launched in the country in last ten years.
No one is saying that Pakistan has the perfect growth rate, niether any is proud of the existing growth rate, moreover, people are not satisfied with the political leadership. but still as compared to regional countries Pakistan has done comparitively better job.
Only a monkey & whinners can compare Pakistans growth rate with 1st world countries. now instaed of crying and wasting time in trying to prove Pakistan as a failure state, try to do something, try to use the little grey matierial in ur head ( if any). and still u don't like this "failure" state, u are most welcome to leave it. Whinners and Loosers and not needed. u can go to any state u desire ( provided they are ready to accept loosers). any way, making Pakistan a true welfare state, is not boys work , niether any looser or whinners or blamers are required to do such job. Its a MANs job. so let them do it, u stay out of it...
or May be, u can join if u r Man enough. ( after all, at the time of Pakistan Movement many "intellectuals" like u have openly said that Pakistan is a DREAM OF POET and Jinnnah is wasting his time), so story haven't changed.. the "intellectuals" still exist, though there is no Jinnah or Iqbal amoung us, but slowly and steadily we may develop this country.
^ again nice long speech. No wonder pakistan can truly claim to nurture bombastic speech makers who follow knowingly (or unknowingly) a famous diktat that if you repeat the same lie loudly and repeatedly soie suckers will start believing.Bank opening branches and stock exchange sky rocketing, again like the budget escalation, point to economic activity alright but not really measures of economic development which is what we were discussing.
Always happy antiobl, but can be lot happier if I can make you and your buddy see the error in your thinking.. Who knows, may be you will get it in future.. Meantime become a politician!
What about the multiples of our region? Iran Afghanistan China and India? Are they 7? higher or lower?
Brother, a dollar in all these countries is worth much more than a dollar in USA. You have labeled the figure ‘7’ as anecdotal. Well, to me the figure is fair value and there is nothing biased about that.
Here are some figures from IMF and according to that figures, this is how dollar could be valued in different countries (though that does not mean that IMF is very accurate as there could be many different estimates).
Per capita income of different countries in nominal US dollars according to IMF:
Thus it means one dollar in these countries is worth X (divide PPP dollar by nominal dollar) dollars in USA (as PPP and nominal per capita income of USA is same).
Iran multiple is: 2.83
China multiple is: 3.8
India multiple is: 4.69
Pakistan multiple is: 3.28
Bangladesh multiple is: 5.07
Afghanistan multiple is: 4.48
Anyhow, I do not think that these are fair values and I still think that one dollar (Rs 61) in Pakistan is worth around 7 dollars in USA (though according to IMF as given above, it is 3.28 dollars). Some of my reasons I have given in my last post.
This 3.28 figure could be right for upper middle class, but not for Pakistan in general. Just imagine that if 3.28 is correct value than a family of 5 with income of $2000 a month in USA would be living similar to a family of 5 with an income of Rs 37000 a month (2000 multiply by 61 divided by 3.28) in Pakistan, as I do not think that it is even possible to survive for a family of 5 on $2000 in USA, whereas Rs 37000 would give a reasonable living in Pakistan.
If we take 7 than $2000 would give a similar living in USA as what a person can have on Rs 17500 a month. I believe that Rs 17500 would still give a better living in Pakistan than $2000 in USA *.
[But still, do not take me wrong that I believe Pakistan has done economically bad during last 60 years].*
Pakistan started as a very poor and completely undeveloped country (Even Country like Afghanistan was much better placed than Pakistan in 1947). Most of the people in area that is ‘Pakistan’ were dependent economically on part of British India that was included in ‘Independent India’ and many started predicting that Pakistan would collapse economically.
Nevertheless, starting with such meagre economical condition, there is no doubt that Pakistan has developed and progressed at reasonable pace over last 60 years. Potential for better was always there still whatever has been achieved is commendable, especially when one see where the journey started. Very few know that in 1947 Pakistan had only one university (Punjab University) and that there was negligible industry.
Today, according to some western economists, during this century (21st century) South Asia could become the centre of world economical activities and unless some mishap happens (like corrupts coming back to power again), Pakistan could become one of 10th largest world economy by 2030. Here is a reasonable article on Pakistan Industrial progress over the last 60 years (1947-1077).
[Though article is written by someone that even though acknowledging the developments in Pakistan during last 60 years, still trying his best to undertone the development]
Industrial progress from 1947 to 2007
Governance needs to be improved in order to move on path of development
By Mansoor Ahmad
LAHORE: Despite having no industrial base at the time of independence, Pakistan survived its early years on the strength of good governance its bureaucracy inherited from the British rule.
In its initial years after independence, the planners facilitated the establishment of those industries for which raw material was available in Pakistan. In this process, they however neglected some established engineering industries, which denied the country a good engineering base. Textile, cement and sugar were the industries for which raw material was locally available and these are the main large scale industrial sectors of the country.
The industrial units in Pakistan in 1947 could be counted on fingers. Dalmia Cement Factory at Karachi and Associated Cement Company at Wah together produced 28,000 tonnes of cement at that time, which was not sufficient for domestic needs. The country now has a cement production capacity of over 33 million tonnes, which is in excess of domestic demand.
There was hardly any textile base. Colony Textile Mills Okara was the only textile mill worth mentioning. The area falling under Pakistan produced cotton, which was consumed by textile mills based in India. Today Pakistan is a force to reckon with in textiles. However, the Indian textile industry is much larger and fulfills its domestic needs from locally produced cotton. India, in fact, is the second largest producer and exporter of cotton in the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, has to depend on the import of cotton to run its domestic industry.
At the time of independence, there were 921 registered industrial units in undivided India. Out of these, only 34 units were located in Pakistan, which also included East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). Total jobs provided by these industries to a population of over 60 million people were only 26,400. These industrial units were comparatively of small size involving simple processes of production. At that time, East Pakistan produced jute while all the jute mills were located in India.
The Railway Workshop at Mughalpura Lahore was one of the best engineering facilities in the sub-continent. This state-of-the-art engineering workshop of that time is now in shambles. We did not build up the excellent engineering facility Pakistan inherited at the time of independence.
Besides the large Mughalpura workshop, Pakistan also inherited a small base of engineering industries. These industries were established in and around small towns surrounding Lahore. There were a number of small manufacturers in Gujranwala, Daska, Sialkot and Wazirabad, which produced engineering goods such as machine tools, diesel engines (5-50 HP), surgical instruments, oil expellers, fans, cinema projectors, machinery parts and components, etc. Some of these products were even exported.
The surgical instruments’ production is now in shambles. These instruments were being produced since 1908 and their exports commenced in 1930. Besides this, there were 13 manufacturers of machines and tools and about 60 manufacturers of diesel engines.
With an engineering base of such strength in 1947, Pakistan has failed to produce any car, tractor or motorcycle with 100 per cent local components. We are not producing, but assembling cars in the country with 30-60 per cent imported parts.
There were three sugar mills in the country, one was in the then East Pakistan and two in present Pakistan. Total sugar production at that time was 95,000 tonnes per year. Now Pakistan has over 73 sugar mills with a production capacity of over five million tonnes. Actual production varies from three to four million tonnes. The prices of sugar in Pakistan always remain 30-40 per cent higher than the global market.
At the time of partition, Pakistan had no paper or paper board mill. Now it has over 70 such units, some producing fine paper for text books, periodicals and school note books. Cigarette production has increased from 241 million to several billions. There was no fertiliser factory. Now Pakistan produces both nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers. It is, in fact, self-sufficient in urea production.
The country had no edible oil processing industry, no bicycle manufacturing unit, no soda ash plant or polyester fibre unit. Electric bulbs and tube lights had to be imported as there was no such industry. Steel products for construction or other use were imported. Now Pakistan produces these items. The multinational producers of soda ash and PTA though have been given undue duty protection, which has made industries using these materials uncompetitive in the global markets. The energy supply was mainly met from coal and kerosene. The electric supply was limited to main cities as the total power generation capacity did not exceed 60 MW. Today despite outages majority of the population enjoys access to electricity.
The total length of railway track laid by the British was about 12,000 km, which Pakistan inherited. This was an excellent infrastructure, which has now been destroyed to a large extent. We never updated the railway infrastructure, the cheapest mode of goods’ transportation. The goods’ transportation capacity of the railways has declined by 10 times in the last 40 years, increasing the cost of transportation. There has hardly been any addition to the railway track in the last 60 years.
In the agriculture sector, wheat production increased from 3.3 million tonnes in 1947 to 23 million tonnes this year. Rice production rose from 0.68 million tonnes to 5.1 million tonnes. Sugarcane production increased 10 times and cotton production rose 12 times.
According to BBC, though Pakistan’s population was about 23 per cent of British India, it received less than 10 per cent of the industrial units. Economic experts say Pakistan has failed to avail itself of numerous opportunities in its 60 years of existence to move up and become a developed country. The main impediment, which denied the country its true potential, was deteriorating governance.
[quote]
Economic experts say Pakistan has failed to avail itself of numerous opportunities in its 60 years of existence to move up and become a developed country. The main impediment, which denied the country its true potential, was deteriorating governance.
[/quote]
That and now the population, though it is still not bad when compared to india or china.
The bachcha bano tehreek in the seventies / eighties wasn't really that benefitable, unless we were on constant war with someone..