HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

  1. Lakkis Sahib, the example of skyscrapers was just for illustration purposes. Pick your favorite development sign (highways, electricity supply system, etc. etc.). Sindh border clearly shows Indian side is in fact much worse than Pakistani side.

  2. You can build skyscrapers on sand. Just visit Dubai to see it happening right in front of your eyes.

Tariq Sahib, Thank you.

Chinese region next to Pakistan is a little bit better. That pretty much reflects China’s budget multiple of 2.28.

Enmity or none, people sneak across borders for better economic opportunities. Heck people die in deserts, oceans etc. In case of Pakistan, we have net migration from Afghanistan. That clearly shows our side is way better in social stability and economic prosperity.

You are now mixing individual buying power vs. national buying power.

Even as an individual you may be able to buy a little more for a 1$ in Karachi but not much. Try buying a can of coke, then divide it by 60 and the answer will be pretty close to the price that you’d pay for coke can in NY.

Once you consider “national purchasing power”. 1$ for America buys the same as 1$ for Pakistan “as a nation”. Demand and supply will quickly equalize the national purchase power if the difference is larger than few percentages.

Modern day globalization has eliminated markups and now the countries spend same amount of $$ to buy the same thing.

Thanks for your kind comments. On your comment on this analysis being shallow! May be it is, may be it isn’t. The onus is on you to bring a better technique.

No exaggeration here Tariq sahib. Show me where I misstated the numbers? These numbers are from reputed sites. And the empirical analysis is based on the real “eye balling” of our neighborhood.

Yeap there are families in Pakistan too. However we need to institute policies so they could become even wealthier. This is the only way to have a good competition with their Indian counterparts.

Check out the essay. It clearly states that we need to learn from Indian army. What can we learn? precisely what you are saying. So we are on the same side on this one (just this one :wink: )

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Incorrect, we need to have policies which would generate healthy competition and get more families richer instead of only rich families getting richer.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

annual budget is the chosen metric of a nation's prosperity. wow.. mindblowing.

what is this brilliant branch of economics again? alif lailaat?

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

A very good read, cannot thank enough to have a homeland.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/08/14/op.htm

Profiling Pakistan at 60

By Shahid M. Amin

THE achievement of Pakistan was something of a miracle. The demand for a
separate Muslim homeland was opposed tooth and nail by the Hindu majority,
which had India’s best organised party, the Congress, led by the formidable
Mahatma Gandhi, and was also dominant in commerce, education, and the news
media.

On the other hand, Indian Muslims suffered from disunity and were fragmented
on parochial and provincial lines. The British colonial administration at
that time, under the Labour Party, had close links with the Congress. In the
international arena, there was scepticism about the wisdom of breaking up
India on religious lines.

And yet, Pakistan was achieved after a relatively brief struggle of seven
years when the Muslim masses forged an unprecedented unity under the flag of
the Muslim League. It was one great man, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah,
who made it possible. His matchless leadership galvanised the Muslims and
Pakistan emerged on the world map on August 14, 1947.

The Pakistani people greatly love and esteem their Quaid-i-Azam. But it is
ironic that many of the ideals that he stood for have been all but forgotten
in the years that have followed since independence. In fact, some quarters,
notably the religious parties that had opposed the very idea of Pakistan,
have been trying to distort the Quaid-i-Azam’s legacy and have been seeking
to rewrite history according to their own predilections and preferences.The
fact is that the Quaid was a democrat, a liberal, a progressive and a
modernist. He was appalled by the politics of “gherao and jalao” and he did
not believe in strikes, civil disobedience and the breaking of law for any
purpose.

** The Quaid sought to protect the national rights of the Muslims of South Asia
and he can be described as a Muslim nationalist. His approach was secular
and he was the very antithesis of a typical mullah. He was a product of
modern, western education and had a cosmopolitan outlook. He believed in
emancipation of women and their equal participation in all spheres. He was
passionate in advocating the rights of minorities and had always assured
them of fair treatment as equal citizens of Pakistan. In foreign policy
matters, the Quaid-i-Azam wanted friendship and cooperation with neighbors
like India and with all other nations of the world. **

This was the legacy of the Quaid-i-Azam. In this context, his speech of
August 11, 1947 - on the eve of the creation of Pakistan - is highly
relevant. On that occasion, he had also said that he wanted to make Pakistan
“one of the greatest nations in the world.” It is evident that we have not
lived up to the example of the Quaid and his ideals and expectations.

On this 60th anniversary of the creation of Pakistan, many even have a sense
of foreboding and despair about where the country is heading for. Across the
country, we have suicide bombers, violent sectarianism, extremism,
provincialism, corruption and nepotism. The writ of the state is being
challenged not only in the tribal areas and in some parts of Baluchistan but
also in incidents like that of the Lal Masjid in the heart of the federal
capital. The opposition leaders keep issuing calls for strikes every other
day for one reason or the other, unmindful of the loss to the national
economy and the hardship caused to the daily wage earners and others.

Pakistan’s political evolution has been disappointing. There has been poor
governance and arbitrary rule. Corrupt and inefficient democratic regimes
have invited military takeovers all too often. The blame has to be placed on
politicians as well as Bonapartists in the armed forces. It was the charade
of democracy from 1953 to 1958 that led to the first military takeover,
which many had welcomed. In 1977, opposition politicians like Asghar Khan
openly invited the armed forces to overthrow the government, which was
accused of vote rigging. Some of these politicians became cabinet Ministers
after the military takeover. In 1999, Benazir Bhutto, Imran Khan and other
politicians welcomed the military takeover. Many leading politicians are a
part of General Pervez Musharraf’s administration.

However, the fact remains that whatever might be its achievements in the
short run, military rule is always an aberration. The periodic derailment of
the constitutional process by the military has stunted Pakistan’s political
evolution.

World opinion has now turned decisively against autocratic rule. Moreover,
the political situation Pakistan makes an unfavourable contrast with India,
with whom comparisons are inevitable.

In Pakistan itself, pro-democracy sentiment has been growing notably. The
news media and the intelligentsia have mobilised public opinion in favour of
democracy. The two leading opposition parties - the PPP and the Muslim
League (N) - signed a Charter of Democracy last year demanding democratic,
constitutional rule and return of the army to the barracks. It is a welcome
development that everyone is now swearing by democracy. No doubt, the
spirited movement launched recently by the lawyers to uphold the
independence of the judiciary has strengthened the cause of constitutional
rule.

** But democracy can succeed only when the people in general and the
politicians in particular possess a democratic temperament. This means that
the political parties must show tolerance and a willingness to coexist with
each other. They must accept election results gracefully: there has to be a
willingness on the part of the losers to let the winners run the
administration for the stipulated term. Moreover, differences of opinion
must not weaken the national spirit and there must be a strong commitment to
protect the country’s independence and integrity. **

The mainstream parties must also be unequivocal in opposing extremism and
coercion in politics and any attempt at making a state within a state, such
as the present attempts by religious zealots to impose Talibanisation on the
country, which represents the negation of much that the Quaid-i-Azam stood
for.

If the foregoing conditions were not met, it would be naïve to hope that
everything would settle down once the army withdraws to the barracks and
politicians take charge. Let us suppose that Benazir becomes prime minister
again. Will this end the Taliban phenomenon in the Pukhtoon tribal areas,
and the sectarian violence fanned by religious fanatics all over the
country? Will not the mullah parties start a fresh agitation to impose their
obscurantist ideas on the state? In fact, other opposition parties will also
probably continue the politics of disruption.

This vicious cycle can end only if the main political parties agree to adopt
policies of moderation and mutual accommodation. The media has to play a key
role in this regard. In the more recent past, a section of it has often been
found glorifying extremists and giving them prime-time coverage. This
greatly harms the image of Pakistan and fuels fanaticism and anarchy. Some
journalists seem to think that they must criticise the government in order
to prove their independence. But far more important is what is in the
national interest. Clearly, the media has to show a balance in reporting.

The intelligentsia and the educated middle classes too must play an
increasingly effective role for the stability of the country. They can
mobilise public opinion in favour of making Pakistan a forward-looking
country with an emphasis on modern education and technology. The country
cannot isolate itself from the rest of the world by turning its back on
modernisation or becoming a narrow-minded, regressive and fanatical society,
allowing safe havens to terrorists.

While the foregoing critical analysis of Pakistan’s political evolution is
essential, one must not go to the other extreme and fall in the pit of
despondency and despair. Over a period of time, disgruntled politicians in
Pakistan have made a habit of building up public discontent against the
rulers of the day by painting a totally negative picture of all developments
in the country. Their purpose has been to stir up a countrywide agitation to
secure a change of regime. It is very unfortunate that such sustained
negative propaganda seems to have produced a national culture of cynicism
and disenchantment.

** Looking at the bright side of the picture, the first and foremost point that
needs to be made is that we are free; we have a homeland and we have a
national identity. Secondly, most people in Pakistan are better off than
what they or their forefathers were before independence. In pre-partition
India, few Muslims ever made it to high positions in any sphere, whether in
government, commerce, industry, education or sports. Here, after
independence, the field has been open in all areas. Thirdly, Pakistan has
made significant progress in industrialisation, commerce, agriculture,
banking, education, news media and in gender equality.

Pakistan has become one of the world’s eight nuclear powers and the only one
in the Islamic world, thanks to the brilliance of its scientists. Pakistanis
are excelling in nearly all disciplines, and millions of them working abroad
are admired for their talent and hard work.Living standards in Pakistan
today are definitely better than what they were in 1947 and this applies to
the poorer sections of society as well. At the time of independence, the
typical poor family had neither electricity nor running water, whereas these
facilities are more or less taken for granted today. Unlike India, even the
poorest people in Pakistan wear shoes and clothes and many possess watches,
radios and television. Out of a population of 160 million, over 60 million
now possess cell phones. In fact, things could be much better if we could
curtail the growth of our population, as has already been done by several
Muslim countries like Bangladesh ad Indonesia.

Pakistan has had a higher per capita income than India since the 1960s. The
Asian Development Bank’s latest report says that Pakistan has a per capita
annual income of HK$ 13,230 as against China’s HK$ 11,502 and India’s HK$
9,346. (Dawn, 1-8-2007) This is quite commendable. Pakistan also attracted a
record foreign investment of six billion dollars this year. Exports have
risen from about one billion dollar in 1971-72 to over $17 billion today and
foreign exchange reserves and remittances are at an all-time high.

Pakistan’s infrastructure has been growing impressively with new airports,
ports, flyovers, motorways, bridges, hospitals, schools and colleges coming
up all over the country. Agricultural production has made big strides.
Pakistan is now producing four times more wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane
than in 1947. The news media has expanded beyond expectation in terms of
newspapers, radio and television stations. The quality of journalism has
also improved significantly. Literature, culture, fashion, music and sports
are flourishing.

Pakistani women have better representation in parliament and other elective
bodies than in most other countries in the world. Women head some Pakistani
political parties. There are women getting commission in the army and some
are flying jets in the Air Force. A woman is Governor of the State Bank.
Much has yet to be done to improve the lot of women in Pakistan, but surely
they have come a long way since independence.

In the realm of foreign affairs, Pakistan’s strategic location and its key
position in the Islamic world have made it a much-sought-after country in
global politics. Indeed, few countries in the Third World have such a
high-profile role as Pakistan.

In sum, there is no need to despair or write off Pakistan. Once we get our
political act together - which is possible if the main parties and the army
reach a consensus - we are capable of realising the Quaid-i-Azam’s dream of
making Pakistan one of the greatest nations in the world. **

The writer is a former ambassador.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

well it should be the GDP, poverty index, freedom of press and religion, literacy rate, women and minority rights, level of corruption and ethnic and religious tensions.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Incorrect! Budget reflects yearly "buying" power of a country. It is a good way to compare the "relative buying power" between different countries in a class or a region.

Just like as techie you have a "potential of making money", but the real measure is your "take home" income or may be "gross income" (before taxes).

If you want to make "Shaadi" your in-laws will look at your future potential but they will be really interested to know your "wallet size", the type of car you drive, and the size of your house etc. etc.

Pakistan lives in the neighborhood of Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asian states, China, and India. Comparing the "wallet size" (yearly budget) relative to their population in this neighborhood is a decent way of figuring out their "relative" economic health.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

[quote]
Incorrect! Budget reflects yearly "buying" power of a country. It is a good way to compare the "relative buying power" between different countries in a class or a region.
[/quote]

is this a joke? how is a national budget the same as its purchasing power? which school did you graduate from, antiobl?

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

^ yaar kewn tarpa rahay ho antiobl ko, bata do kia definition hai :D

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

even purchasing power is flawed.

It should be the GDP and living standard of the person and the rating of the government

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Queer Sahib,

You understand exactly what I am saying, but continue to play dumb. And that's all right.

Bring in the half set chai and we can sit here all night discussing PPP, GDP, and CFP etc. etc.

In today's global world, the national budget defines what a country can buy in the international market. No matter what Pakistani ministry of economics says, we have a net total of approx. $30 billion to spend on behalf of Pakistanis.

The same way Indian can have $trillions gazillions wroth of GDP, the reality is that the upper limit of India's "wallet's" buying capacity is $150 billion in a year.

Off course budget may include some loans, some aid, some borrowing etc. etc. However this is it for the year. No more (may be less) but the budget gives the upper limit.

If India wants to buy more than $150 billions worth of "stuff", it has to either collect more taxes, or export more "stuff", or borrow money, or a permutation aka combination of the three.

The same thing applies to Pakistan, BDesh, Afghanistan, China, CAS, and Iran.

Cash dekho queer sahib! Cash!

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Yeap! PPP derived numbers are just that! numbers! The theory was developed in the early part of last century, when globalization was not around.

Right now if you want to buy a Big Mac in Pakistan, India, or BDesh, it is going to cost you pretty penny even in dollars.

Goods and services used to be isolated 100 years ago. Right now you can buy a piece of real estate in Bombay, Karachi, or Tokyo with a click of mouse (Ok a bit more clicks but ya'll got the point).

That's why a nicely put apartment in Karachi or Bombay will cost you so high that you better have $$$ to pay for.

Why because the investors can now look at the whole world and find the opportunities. That in turn equalizes the prices in mid to long term.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

There is no mix up. The entire offshoring business is based on wage arbitrage which inturn is based on significant difference in purchasing power of currencies. One can live and survive making $100 monthly in some countries whereas in NYC that will take you through may be a 2 days.

:halo:

what else can we call it when you state that we should ignore all rational measures of economic development and come up with a useless number such as annual budget? You do realize that annual budget is a directly controlled number? Musharaf and a couple of others can simply decide to have a 3% deficit budget or a 8% deficit budget - you still think that will then be an indication of economic development?

I am btw all for simple ‘eyeball’ and ‘feeling’ tests; but even that should follow some reasoning. For example if you say “I ate 3 eggs for breakfast and was able to do twice as much normal work” there may be a possible connection. But if you simply say “I ate 5 eggs for breakfast” it doesn’t inidicate anything about your physique or ability to work/produce.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Pakistan has made some progress, still many many problems to fix. But the nation shall prevail and continue to grow. We can become a Middle Power.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

so you are claiming the size of a government budget to be the nation's purchasing power, but will term purchasing power parity as flawed?!

antiobl, are you moin.ul.atiq?

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Offshoring aka subcontracting is a complex process. If it was based on PP, Sierra leon and Yemen would have the Wal Marts and Microsofts all lined up to do some shora-shoree off-shoree.

FYI $100 in Karachi or Bangalore will give you almost the same buying power as in New York. Big Macs, restaurant meals, cars, and malls in Karachi may charge you in Rupees, but you better have dollars cashed before you go.

You are talking generalities Tariq sahib, paper theories at best. Come out of your ivory towers and smell the coffee. See the real life expenses in Karachi and then compare them to NY.

Dunno what you mean by rational measures. They are just measures. You can use yours if you don't like mine. But at least don't throw trash on mine! I respect your measures, and you listen to mine.

Is that a deal?

You are talking about "padding" the budget by few percentages. Right?

FYI all your "rational measures" are "padded". At least in the annual budget, the padding is done only once, i.e. on top of the revenues.

If you go back to the budget figures in the essay, every country listed there has some padding in their budgets. However per capita padding is teeny tiny amount compared to the expenses in any budget unless you are talking about BDeshi or Afghani budget.

Good! you must use your "eyes" while looking at any number.** As they say listen to the weather forecast on TV, then stick you head outside to "eye ball" the weather. Often times the "experts" (i.e. weather forecasters) are way off in their projections.
**
In Pakistan we have had too many "forecasters" predicting rain and storms since many decades. Unfortunately we don't care to look outside our boarded up windows to see the bright sun, beautiful blue skies, and milky white clouds, and forest green leaves of trees so tall that God himself put some time nurturing them.

Amen brother!

Queer sahib, didn't know Moin had also "hooked" you. Well that's the life of a queer anyway i.e. getting hooked in the darkened hoojras.

On a serious note, do you have something to say or you are hear to dump one liner stinkers?

Contribute Queer sahib! Contribute positive thoughts! We have already had so much $hite in our region, that we must stop taking personal pot shots at each other.

Thank you.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

believe me antiobl, i am contributing rather generously when i expose the idiocy you try to pass off as economic points. any answers to my questions yet?

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Antibol - I am not sure if you're acting like you don't understand or really don't.If you continue to argue that $100 mean same power in NYC and the 3rd world, surely you are pretending. Similarly re measures. Please get some basic orientation to eco and math before we go any further. It is impossible to explain any further to you since it cannot be dumbed down any further. was NOT talking abt padding but was referring to the relativities.Or try a career in poltics. You do bs quite well.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

Ditto to Tariq Saheb's post. That exactly represents my sentiments after reading antiOBL's posts.

antiOBL, denial is not the way to go when it comes to statistics and numbers.

Though I agree with you that $100 would pretty much give you the same buying in Karachi as in NYC, however, the real question is who is earning that much money per day in Pakistan apart from the ruling elite?

In development economics there is a very famous terminology known as "trickle down effect" , which basically means that development starts from the top and its effect in terms of increasing income may reach the masses at the bottom. Pakistan's development, whatever there has been, has largely resulted in increasing incomes and wealth for the ruling elite, and income distribution has actually worsened in the last few years.

Though a bit dated, Gustav Papanek's, a former World Bank Economist and Harvard University professor - analysis on Pakistan's development still holds ground. "...Industrialists were shielded from foreign competition, granted generous tax concessions, and once a license was obtained - allowed to import equipment and material at a substantially overvalued exchange rate............... The control system led to a very high degree of monopolistic competition, and this system was not relaxed until the established enterprises were sufficiently strong to overcome most potential competitors.........."

The result was that very few families (dawoods, saigols, adamjees etc) controlled nearly 50% of ALL productive industrial assets, and the same people owned 75% of shares in all banks and insurance companies.

The situation hasn't much changed since, and possibly deteriorated. The list of money and power brokers has grown, a few names added, and some omitted, but the layman in Pakistan is now worse off. If Musharraf (or his supporters) think that seeing new Corollas, Civics, Land Cruiser and in some cases BMWs and Mercs signify development in Pakistan, they are utterly wrong. Pakistan needs a serious reassesment of its development goals, through which the average person (mazdurs, clerks, drivers, small farmers, security guards) would actually receive some benefit of the so called development, and wouldn't be crushed under the high inflationary pressures.

Many (or perhaps most) household in Pakistan still run on less than Rs. 10,000 per month. If you can, or any other psuedo-pro-governement-economist can make a monthly budget for such a family with minimal luxury (fulfillment of necessities), I would salute them.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

ADB points to poor governance: Pakistan’s social indicators among worst in Asia

By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, Aug 14: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a special evaluation on Pakistan’s 60th independence anniversary describes it as a country with “poor governance, endemic corruption and social indicators that are among the worst in Asia”.

In the first evaluation report in 22 years ‘Learning Curves: What role for ADB in Pakistan?’, the bank says that ‘Pakistan has provided a challenging context in which to implement a programme of development assistance’, although it was a major client of the bank.

Wars and cross-border conflicts with its neighbours, strong ethnic and cultural divisions, continued existence of feudal social relations in some parts and a complex structure of government comprising federal, provincial, district, tehsil or taluka and union levels, each with an elected body since 2002 have marked Pakistan’s modern history.

The bank plans to reduce the number of sectors and sub-sectors in which it is involved on the basis of a detailed Country Assistance Programme Evaluation (CAPE). This restructuring, however, is not because the country did not fare well but for the reason that ADB’s public sector loan portfolio was unfocused and its staff overburdened.

The Asian Bank says that three periods of military rules, 10 changes in the leadership of civilian governments during 1988-1999, erratic economic growth, with periods of faster growth neither sustained nor translated into better social outcomes, rising poverty rates throughout the 1990s were important developments in Pakistan over the years.

The report said the ADB’s performance in none of the ten sectors was rated ‘highly successful’ while the programmes in health, nutrition and social protection, water supply, sanitation and waste management were rated ‘unsuccessful’.

Only two sectors -- energy and transport -- were rated as ‘successful’ and in agriculture and natural resources, education, finance, law, economic management and public policy the performance was ranked ‘partly successful’.

The evaluation concluded that the ADB has too many loans in too many sectors and sub-sectors, given staff and technical resources and the requirement of its business processes.

The study recommended that in the absence of a major increase in the number assigned to support operation in Pakistan, the bank should reduce the number of sectors and sub-sectors it is involved in. An appropriate scenario would be four core lending and two core non-lending sectors with a more focused approach and hence the number of active public sector projects in the portfolio should be reduced.

The bank would consider a new approach towards preparation of a new country partnership strategy with key elements of sector prioritisation, pro-poor approaches, private sector operations, capacity building, delegation of authority, project processing and client perceptions.

The ADB said the balance would need to be adjusted between lending and economic, thematic work and policy dialogue.

The second element would be to ensure that operations are underpinned by more rigorous analysis and that it becomes recognised as a leading source of ideas in its sectors of core focus.

The study recommended that in addition to higher staff resources and analyst level support, greater authority should be devolved to Pakistan Resident Mission, with the country director empowered to act on most matters.

The report also says that to complement the within-project focus on corruption, the ADB should ensure that it understands the nature, extent and drivers of corruption in each sector in which it engages to ensure that project design and separate initiatives incorporate effective anti-corruption measures at the sector or country level.

The report also recommends that if the Asian Bank increases resident missions staff resources significantly, greater efforts are needed to ensure compliance with the policy for their full staff involvement in project processing.

Similarly, the delegation of project administration should be accelerated and projects should be delegated as soon as possible after approval before they run into implementation problems.

Re: HOW WELL HAS PAKISTAN DONE?

When I was working with a govt organisation back in early 1990s, Pakistan was among the first ten countries in terms of committment of loans from ADB but their effective and quick utilization, it was ranked 33 or 34 out fo 35 countries.