How has the recession affected you?

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1

How has it affected:

Your job
Your family life
Your spending habits
Your living situation
Your children
Your hobbies/interests

2

Re: How has the recession affected you?

I couldnt get the job I wanted (even though I had all the qualifications).

Allah knows best. He may have something much better in store for me.

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Allah was most gracious last year. It was one of the best years I have had on the stock market in a long time. All said and done, I probably made about about a 1/4 million dollars last years. I can only hope this year will be as good.

regards,

bob

4

Ma'shallah! The markets were really good to me as well. Are you a value investor?

In terms of work, we had less deals but they were big enough to cover any potential issues and more importantly the bonus numbers :D

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

:(

ever since the recession
i am spending hours on gs forum :D

yah Allah when will the recession ENDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

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not much change except my plans for school seem much more difficult to implement.

7

Hi Pak-one,

I moved out of the market at the end of 2007 because I had valuation concerns. So, yes I do look at valuations. However, I do look at other indicators too, such as momentum and technicals. I watched the market correct in 2008 and waited in 6% bonds. I jumped back in the market on Oct 10 when the dow tanked nearly 1000 points to below 8000. Subsequently, I created a position in dividend yielding Pfizer, msft, intc. I continued to hedge this portfolio with a triple short ETF on the S&P worth 20% of my position, until the market came down to 6600 around March of 2009. Here, I changed direction, sold the triple Short ETF and my other stocks, held some cash and went all out long with the rest in the triple long ETF on the financials (FAS). This is where I made my first killing. Subsequently, I bought Bank of America at 10 and change and sold out at 14. Then went to Citibank at 3.75 and sold at 5.00. Now, I have moved to oil and gas stocks such as BP that yields approx. 8% in dividends. Also bought At&t and Verizon that yield about 7.5%. However, as Citibank has moved back down to between 3.40- 3.15, I have been selling my dividend paying stocks and started creating a position in Citibank once again.

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

lol. booj on economy :cb:

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

It has little effect on me....

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

has not effect on me :roman:

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

in pakistan it isn't been all that good for a good sustainable business, so i dropped the idea of business, and joined civil service @s an income tax officer. :D
wateva the country's financial position , govt job is always secure, moreso the central civil service .

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

^yeh and you get the chance to create bonuses too along with the salary :hehe:

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You have had some strong positions. Are you a day trader or run an investment house?

I am a fundamentals guy. I usually rely on the valuations, technicals less so on the short term momentum. I can't be as active as you were, because my day job is in I-Banking which means lots of hours at the office and bonus payouts in Dec. Also I am not permitted to comment on rivals (Citi) or the energy sector.

Having said that, I was fairly leveraged in industrials as late as '07 Q4. I had a good mix of ADM, Cat. Etc based on P/E ratios, bankruptacy values (FF and E, cash on hand) and relative market share and it's medium term trends. I started the selloff in '08 Q1 to shift about 25 percent of the capital towards a closed REIT run by my uncle. The REIT invested in hotels in W. Europe and resorts in emerging markets.It's averaging a 17 percent return and has used the cash on hand to increase the equity stakes in some of the investments. I held on to the rest of the cash until later in the year when I went into the tanking property markets: I brought a condo in Cannes, 2 commerical units in Zurich, a few small (2-4 units) mixed use buildings in the US, also fully paid off my current residence.

I remember Oct 10 very well because I went into to grab Goldman and also picked up Walmart, Wells Fargo. For once I was highly liquid at the right time.

My bonus numbers were rather strong last year, so I am still banking some cash. I would love to get into ETFs and possibly commodities but it's pretty diificult to do it when you barely have enough time to sleep.

My personal, inflation adjusted IRR is 15.3 percent. Not spectacular but I'm quite satisfied due to the minimal time investment.

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

kuch nahi huva...just made me want to save more :)

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

^ :k:

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

khuch khas nahi lol waisay yeh recession hota kia hai???

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Re: How has the recession affected you?

^ On which planet do you live? :rolleyes:

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wow... good stuff man... what was your reasoning for moving to cash in Q1 2008? regardless good call.. especially the Wells Fargo. Buffett is still apparently buying it...

through the last half of 08 and throughout 09, I just played in small illiquid arb type stuff... and found some names that I could arb over and over again. then the market melted down and the bids disappeared on those names. I remember there was a retractable preferred share where you could get 25 bucks by putting it back to the issuer. and around October, etc it was trading at less than 24 bucks. you could make an easy 4% every month just by buying that thing and putting it back to the issuer. there was some other interesting little things going on just like that.

2009 was a good year but I'm sad that those opportunities look like they're all gone now or the spreads are much tighter. and because I was doing this stuff, I didn't have any money to invest long-term in the market and missed the entire run up. and now, I'm hesitant to put anything in. guess I'm pretty doubtful of this magical recovery. as far as I can see people are still piling on debt like there's no tomorrow which is what got us into trouble in the first place.

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I'd love to claim that I had properly timed the market but that was not the case. There were two primary factors 1. My uncle's REIT, I invest with people that are sharp and I can trust 2. I saw the broader indicators leading towards an adjustment. Because of these circumstances, my annualized time series doesn't show any down years. I do respect Warren Buffet but recommend that you go straight to the source: The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham.

Arbs are great vehicles but still too exotic for me. I try to keep my investments pretty simple and have not used any special algorithms for calibrating the returns - mostly because of the lack of time to manage them well. I actually started shifting to the property markets after seeing how well the REIT was doing. So far, the cash flows have been strong, and I have started debt repayment at an accelerated pace for the European properties (no tax advantages for me).

2010 should be an interesting year, I don't see a true recovery because the fundamentals are still off balance (including debt/exotics etc). Maybe I am cynical because of the day job, but I don't believe that the most efficient allocation of capital is occurring at this point.

20

Also, forgot to address this matter. You're right about the tighter spreads but the opportunities are still out there. What do you think of green tech and defense? Both sectors should be growth oriented in the near term.

Having the capital liquid is a challenge no doubt. Are you still thinking B-school? If so, try to see if you can get into to finance position with strong bonus potential. You're an intelligent guy who would do very well in a more entrepreneurial environment. At that point you can also have some additional funds year end to potentially scope out the equities markets.

Definitely keep in mind that the opportunities are out there, perhaps not as prevalent as before. Just get yourself ready with a plan and you should be all set :)