Lets just say that the Talibs come back into power after America leaves (which it WILL), do we continue to fight this war perpetually? Will we ever have an Afghan government friendly to us and our regional interests? It does not look good.
The "Afghan" Army is nothing but a collection of former militias financed by the US $s. US goes away and that "Army" reverts back to its old alliances. Love it or hate it, the Taliban are probably the most effectively calibrated fighting force in Afghanistan - i don't see that changing barring the formation of an alternative Pakhtun fighting force. Even then, the challenge will be going against a militia that has a black and white flag with the shahadah imprinted on it.
My point here to effectively secure Pakistan's standing sovereignty. We must have a friendly govt in Afghanistan, we must ensure that Afghanistan does not fall apart. The most effective move would bide our time until the Americans are out of there - that alone will help pacify the tensions.
That would be great, but isnt it the bane of all Afghans, Pakistanis interfering in their country for the benefit of only their own. Most PAshtuns are dead against Pakistan interfernece in Afghanistan, your the first I have ever met that supported the Pak Army's "strategic depth" initiative.
And even if the Taliban do come back, it will only revert back to the civil war it was before...
You know aswell as anyone that the US govt is NOT going away anytime soon.
The Afghan army may be only a militia, but I doubt the US is going to leave until they are certain it can stand up on its own, (although I admit that with the current economic crisis, nothing is 100 percent.) And lets not forget that militias have been succesful in the past against the Taliban. The only difference is that the Talibs get more support and financing from wherver they get it.
If the US and other allies build the capacity within that country to support their own govt and army, then why not. If the same militias could hold back the Taliban for years, there is no reason to doubt that they wouldnt be succesful if they were even stronger.
And the Taliban coming back is still a big if. With the combined efforts of the Pak Army and the US and Nato, its questionable how succesful they will be.
Remember this time the Taliban have little or no support, as opposed to last time.
At best, the Afghan and US govts will allow some Taliban back in exchange for ceasefire... But that doesnt seem likley as the Talibs apparently want to continue the fight.
So its really a zero sum game at this point.. Them or us.