The flu that has struck in asia has become an epidemic, and is theorized to spread out of that region…
eek?
How likely is it to spread out? I’m not too caught up on this topic. Just heard about it, and how the US is expecting a pandemic that might leave 90 million Americans dead (that’s just Americans - I don’t know what the estimates are on the worldwide number).
*What worries scientists about the current strain of bird flu, known as H5N1, is that it has shown some ominous traits. Though it does not often infect humans, it can, and when it does, it seems to be uncommonly lethal. It has killed 60 people of the 116 known to have been infected. *
Alarm heightened on Thursday when a scientific team led by Dr. Taubenberger reported that the 1918 flu virus, which killed 50 million people worldwide, was also a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.
From the NY times today. Just something to think about.
**
Meanwhile, H5N1 seems to be finding its way into more and more species. Once known to infect chickens, ducks and the occasional person, the virus is now found in a wide range of birds, and it has infected cats.
"It killed tigers at the Bangkok zoo, which is quite remarkable because flu is not traditionally a big problem for cats," Dr. Pavia said.
It has also infected pigs, which in the past have been a vehicle to carry viruses from birds to humans.**
Okay, this thing is in Turkey now, and its killing thousands of birds.
Its predicted to head to Africa first, and then the rest of the Western countries, due to bird migratory patterns.
You CAN catch the virus directly from the bird - usually people who handle birds are getting it.
But right now, it wont go from human to human. If it mutates though, which is a possibility, then it CAN go from human to human, in which case it will leave millions upon millions upon millions of people dead.
I don't know if you can get the flu by eating the chicken, given that the chicken is well-cooked. I don't know if the virus strain is killed when its boiled. I'm assuming it is, otherwise this would have caused way more human deaths than it has.
The book is absolutely chilling. It describes the Epidemic of 1918 in gruesome detail. When we think of getting the “flu”, we in no way invision the worst that Flu can bring us. Literally once a pandemic gets going, the best you can do is hide in your house til it burns out. With some kind of luck we can develop vaccines, but the capacity to mass produce vaccines is very poor, and needs immediate upgrading. Worst of all, we will see Governments, such as China with the initial response to SARS, who are in disbelief and who act weakly and too slowly.
To contain the disease you must act quickly to quarantine an area. No travel in or out, planes grounded, all traffic blocked, and only food and essential medical personel in and out. Literally a state of Martial Law is essential.
Strangely enough, it looks like the Bush administration sort of took the lead in figuring out after earthquakes and hurricanes, what can be worse. Unfortunately, continents like Africa could literally melt down under a plague, with half of the people dying. Let’s hope that this particular virus is not “The One”, as this is the one thing that could make all other natural disasters look pale by comparison.
edit: The problem with the “bird flus” is that the virus leaps species. In other words, the virus mutates to infect people, and then people infect other people. So much like any other “flu”, the disease can be aerisolized and spread by coughing, or hand contact. What makes these strains so deadly is that the way that it attacks the lungs causes a huge overreaction of the body to the infection, and the lungs are literally drown in thier own fluids. That is the nature of the current “bird flu” that looks so deadly.