Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007 (merged)

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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This is one very important discussion these days. The promotions of Lt Gens and also Maj Gens coming up in about 2 months.

These promotions will define the political future of Pakistan and could also hint at the untold power designs within the military set-up. The VCOAS Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat and CJCSC Gen Ehsan ul Haq retire soon. Their successors are going to be chosen dircetly by Gen Musharraf, and he’s going to hold a lot of factors importnt.

This article by Zafar Abbas summing-up the key points and names and credentials of the top hopeful Lt Gens two of which will be made 4 star and one perhaps the Chief in due course of time, is a timely and interesting read.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/07/top4.htm

Generals waiting in the wings
By Zaffar Abbas

ISLAMABAD, Sept 6: Handling two former prime ministers — for diametrically opposite reasons — and worrying about a possible legal challenge to his re-election as the country’s president may well be occupying General Pervez Musharraf’s mind most of the time these days. But another equally, if not more, important decision that he has so far kept close to his chest, and which he is expected to announce within the next couple of weeks is of the appointment of two four-star generals who would replace the outgoing chairman of joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC) and vice-chief of army staff (VCOAS) in early October.

Certainly, more crucial of the two appointments is that of VCOAS because, unlike the incumbent Vice-Chief, General Ahsan Salim Hayat, the new appointee may, within a matter of a few months, replace Gen Musharraf as the army chief once he decides to doff his uniform. In fact, with the controversy about the presidential election acquiring a new dimension with the Supreme Court’s judicial intervention, the possibility of Gen Musharraf relinquishing his military position earlier, and directly appointing his successor can also not be ruled out.

So who will be the next VCOAS who, after taking over as the army chief, will soon acquire the status of the proverbial ‘king maker’ of Pakistani politics? Everyone in the military has remained tight-lipped on the issue, perhaps because their guess is as good as that of any astute civilian. At this stage the only person who knows about it, and whose future political career depends on it, is the president. And he is in no mood to drop any hint before the actual announcement.

So, it was hardly a surprise that when this question was put to the army spokesman, and Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Major General Waheed Arshad, he had no answer. All he knew, he said, was that the announcement should be made within the next few weeks as the CJCSC General Ehsan and VCOAS General Ahsan Salim Hayat were to retire on Oct 7.

However, Gen Waheed Arshad said since the president is also the COAS, the decision to make the two appointments would be entirely his.Those who are privy to the officers’ seniority list say there is only one person, whose profile doesn’t mention the date of retirement. He is Gen Musharraf, in whose retirement column it has been stated that ‘till the appointment of the next COAS’. All others have a specific retirement date, including the other two four-star generals.

In such a situation, it should hardly come as a surprise to anyone that while Gen Musharraf himself belongs to the 29th PMA course, because of his prolonged stay as the army chief, the successor he plans to choose will be either from the 45th or 46th course. The seniority list of the top 12 lieutenant generals makes an interesting reading, and provides some idea about the various possibilities that exists, and the kind of choice that Gen Musharraf has for selecting the CJCSC and VCOAS. Topping the list is Lt. Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, who is Director-General of the all-prestigious Strategic Plan Division. But he is already on extension and is not likely to be considered for the post of VCOAS. However, some believe that because of his deep involvement with the military’s strategic nuclear assets, he may have an outside chance of becoming the chairman, JCSC. If a combination of seniority and competence remains the criteria, then current ISI chief, Lt. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, may pair with him to be the new vice-chief.

But if Lt. Gen Kidwai is out, the two senior most three-star generals who qualify for the two coveted posts are Lt. Gen Kiani pairing with the Commander 10 Corps, Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed, with the former being elevated to the largely ceremonial post of CJCSC and the latter being made the VCOAS.

Opinion has remained divided on such a selection, and though most people believe this to be the most likely pairing, there has been some whispering campaign to create an impression that Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed was no more the favourite. However, none of those talking in such terms has ever been able to come up with a logical reason to support such an argument for a person who, like Lt. Gen Kiani, is regarded as a thorough professional, and someone who has been on the most prestigious appointments.

But some retired generals and many others who regard themselves as expert on such military matters – and there is no dearth of such people – seniority alone has never been the criterion for selection at this level. And even the army’s spokesman agrees to such a proposition.

They point to several examples from the last few decades when competence and loyalty had been as important factors as seniority. Gen Zia-ul-Haq was appointed the army chief by the then prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto on top of several senior generals. Twenty years later, Gen Musharraf was made the COAS by prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Even though he was not the senior most, the then PM, due to some misplaced concepts about the military’s composition, thought he might feel obliged and remain loyal. Both proved their benefactors wrong. But that’s another story. In between these two, a number of other generals who rose to serve as the army chief, and some after superseding a few others, retired on the completion of their tenure, and without directly intervening in civilian affairs.

Observers say it is not only as the president’s right, but also a necessity, to take into account competence and loyalty along with seniority while making the decision. Even if such factors are taken into account, it is said that the two senior-most, Kiani and Majeed, fit the bill, and remain the front-runners.

But this has not stopped many among the retired officers and active politicians to discuss and speculate about various senior generals, who can be described as aspirants for the top appointments. And one factor that has helped fuel such debate is that at least seven lieutenant generals are from the same batch – 46th PMA – and the difference in their seniority is largely because of the timing of their various appointments.

It is for this reason that people are still not ruling out the presence of a dark horse, who could be anyone from amongst Lt. Gen Mohammed Sabir, who is MS in GHQ, to the Quarter Master General Lt. Gen Afzal Muzzaffar, or even the Gujranwala Corps Commander, Lt. Gen Wasim Ashraf.

Selection of a person who is to command the troops is a crucial decision in almost every country, but certainly not as crucial as in Pakistan. Because of the country’s chequered political history, and repeated military interventions in civilian affairs, the army chief remains a key player in the decision-making process. So, it’s not without reason that President Musharraf is taking his own time to decide about the next VCOAS, who in all likelihood, would soon be the next army chief.

Seniority list

  1. Lt. Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai — DG Strategic Plan Division (SPD)

  2. Lt. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani — DG Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)

  3. Lt. Gen Malik Arif Hayat — serving in GHQ (may not qualify as never commanded a corps)

  4. Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed — Corps Commander, Rawalpindi

  5. Lt. Gen Mohammed Safdar — Chief of Logistical Service (CLS), GHQ

  6. Lt. Gen Ather Ali — DG at Joint Staff Headquarters

  7. Lt. Gen Wasim Ahmad Ashraf — Corps Commander, Gujranwala

  8. Lt. Gen Mohammed Sabir — Military Secretary, GHQ

  9. Lt. Gen Imtiaz Hussain — Adjutant General, GHQ

  10. Lt. Gen Muhammad Afzal Muzzaffar — Quarter Master General, GHQ

  11. Lt. Gen Hamid Rab Nawaz — IG T&E, GHQ

  12. Lt. Gen Muhammad Salahuddin Satti — Chief of General Staff, GHQ

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Re: Eve of the Generals

Welcome to Turkey. Lets hope the US makes us the 51st state.

Yes I am a wakeel, see me
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Re: Eve of the Generals

Dollarss.. lots of dollars.........
:-p

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Re: Eve of the Generals

It seems to me Zafar Abbas left out one key Lt Gen, who apart from the VCOAS is holding the next most important appointment at GHQ at the moment. He is an officer who has enjoyed quite valuable trust with Gen Musharraf, since before 1999 and esp since Oct 99. Could he be the dark horse? As far as seniority and course is concerned I'm not sure, but he has enjoyed as imp appointments, assignments and career as well as relations with the Chief as Lt Gen Tariq Majeed.

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

The problem of Pakistan in few words.

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Re: Eve of the Generals’ lotto 2007

Appointment of new VCOAS, CJCSC by month-end

ISLAMABAD: The appointment of the new vice chief of army staff (VCOAS) and chairman joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC) is expected by the end of this month as the retirement of General Ahsan Saleem Hyat and General Ehsanul Haq is due on October 8, 2007, official sources said on Thursday.

Although General Pervez Musharraf has not ‘officially’ consulted the senior army officers about his decision whether to leave the post of chief of army staff before or after the presidential elections, analysts believe a lot would depend on the appointment of new VCOAS.

Lt General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, DG ISI, and Lt Gen Tariq Majid, Corps Commander Rawalpindi, are the two most talked-about names for the posts of VCOAS and CJCSC. According to the seniority list of Pakistan Army, DG ISI, Lt Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani falls on number three while Tariq Majid on number six.

…

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Re: Eve of the Generals’ lotto 2007

Of all, Ansar Abbasi’s catch…:smiley:

Steady growth in Army bureaucracy
By Ansar Abbasi

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Army has presently more than 125 general officers in its strength. While a lot is said and written about the civilian bureaucracy, not many know about the military bureaucracy, which is today far more bloated compared to what it was a few decades back.

Today we have three full four-star generals, 30 three-star generals also called lieutenant generals while the number of two-star generals — major generals — is said to be almost 100. This number, however, includes those serving generals who are also presently occupying civilian posts including the Presidency.

Although the serving general officers currently holding civilian positions are not in a huge number,there are hundreds of retired soldiers including dozens of ex-generals who are now occupying civil service positions including the key posts like ambassadors in Pakistan’s missions abroad, heads of authorities, corporations and departments.

A list of ex-servicemen, serving against the civil posts, last presented before the Parliament and also published by some newspapers included almost 600 names. According to sources, the number of General officers in the pre-1965 Pakistan Army was about 30. But in the aftermath of the 1965 war the military was restructured and new formations were raised that took the number of general officers to almost 60.

The 1971 war yet again resulted into further growth in the number of General officers. However, it was during General Ziaul Haq’s tenure when a major expansion of army was done. During the present military rule, these sources said, the expansion was done in two areas — Army Strategic Force Command and Air Defence System.

Promotions in the army and in the topmost ranks, it is said, are strictly done against the posts that are sanctioned by the government. “There is no such thing that you start promoting the officers and sending them to the civilian side,” a source said adding that besides clear vacancies certain promotions are made against “pool vacancies”.

Unlike the distortions that are characteristics of the civilian bureaucracy and which furthered during the last eight years, the systems in the military have not been played with. While in the civilian bureaucracy no top mandarin gets retired and is generously allowed extension in complete violation of the law and rules, the Pakistan Army, during the last eight years, has seen just three cases of extensions.

These exceptional military extensions include the case of General Musharraf himself who continues to be the Army Chief since 1998. The second extension that the top General granted during his rule was that of his Chief of Staff Lt Gen (retd) Hamid Javaid, who when offered another year’s extension a few years back preferred to hang his boots instead of depending on a leased military life. The third case of extension is that of Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai, who is presently heading the strategic planning division. Kidwai was to retire last year but Musharraf gave him one-year extension reportedly because of his technical assignment.

Amongst the full Generals that we presently have in the military, General Pervez Musharraf, who for being the Chief of Army Staff, tops the list. The two other four star Generals include General Ahsan Saleem Hayat, Vice Chief of Army Staff and General Ehsan ul Haq, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee.

The three star Generals, who are also appointed as Corps Commander, presently serving the Pakistan Army include Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Director General Strategic Planning Division, Lt Gen Malik Arif Hayat, Director General C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence), Lt Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, Director General Inter-Services Intelligence, Lt Gen Tariq Majeed, Corps Commander Rawalpindi, Lt Gen Safdar Hussain, Chief of Logistics Staff General Headquarters, Lt Gen Salahuddin Satti, Chief of General Staff General Headquarters, Lt Gen Mohammed Sabir, Director General Military Services General Headquarters, Lt Gen Waseem Ahmed Ashraf, Corps Commander Gujranwala, Lt Gen Syed Athar Ali, Director General Joint Staff at Joint Staff Headquarters, Lt Gen Hamid Rab Nawaz, Inspector General Training and Evaluation General Headquarters, Lt Gen Imtiaz Hussain, Adjutant General General Headquarters, Lt Gen Afzal Muzaffar, Quarter Master General, General Headquarters, Lt Gen Syed Sabahat Hussain, Chairman Pakistan Ordnance Factories, Lt Gen Masood Aslam, Corps Commander Peshawar, Lt Gen Shafaatullah Shah, Corps Commander Lahore, Lt Gen Israr Ahmed Ghumman, Director General Heavy Industries Taxila, Lt Gen Raza Muhammad Khan, Corps Commander Bahawalpur, Lt Gen Hamid Khan, President National Defence University, Lt Gen Mushtaq Ahmed Baig, Surgeon General, General Headquarters, Lt Gen Sikandar Afzal, Corps Commander Multan, Lt Gen Sajjad Akram, Corps Commander Mangla, Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmad, Deputy Chairman Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority (ERRA), Lt Gen Muhammad Zaki, Director General Infantry General Headquarters, Lt Gen Ahsan Azhar Hayat, Corps Commander Karachi, Lt Gen Ijaz Ahmed Bakhshi, Director General Weapons and Equipment General Headquarters, Lt Gen Mohammad Ashraf Saleem, Commander Army Air Defence Command, Lt Gen Shahid Niaz, Engineer-in-Chief Frontier Works Organisation, Lt Gen Khalid Shameem Wynne, Corps Commander Quetta, Lt Gen Muhammad Yousaf, Vice Chief of General Staff General Headquarters and Lt Gen Syed Absar Hussain, Commander Army Strategic Forces Command.

Finding a balance: Chai
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Re: Eve of the Generals’ lotto 2007

And more :stuck_out_tongue:

Musharraf keeps new COAS’ name close to his chest

By Ansar Abbasi

ISLAMABAD: Loyalty will possibly be the key factor but General Musharraf may spring a surprise while making top military appointments in the coming few weeks, including the all-important post of the vice chief of army staff (VCOAS) – the future army chief.

Musharraf, who is to doff his uniform by Nov 15 this year, is keeping his cards close to his chest and there is hardly anyone amongst the top military commanders having any idea as to who would be promoted as a four star general and appointed as the VCOAS and the chairman joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC). The next VCOAS will become the army chief when Musharraf sheds his uniform.

The incumbent CJCSC General Ehsanul Haq, and VCOAS General Ahsan Saleem Hayat are retiring on October 8. Prior to this deadline, Musharraf is expected to make top-level promotions against these anticipated vacancies anytime during this month.

According to sources, three factors – seniority, competence and loyalty – are generally considered for promotion of officers to the top-most posts of VCOAS/COAS and CJCSC. Seniority is important for the acceptability of the top commander in the senior ranks of the army.

Competence is always important but in the present situation it is all the more vital because of the serious challenges that the new army chief has to confront. The challenges are to restore the image of the army and redeem its respect among the civilians. The new army chief will have to show and prove to the people that he is a true professional.

Second and all the more crucial challenge would be the US pressure, its war on terror and the ongoing operations in the tribal areas, Waziristan in particular. Only through his competence and professionalism, the chief would keep a balance between the US pressure and the local sensitivities involved. He will have to clear the general perception that our army is fighting America’s war.

Loyalty is the third but in the present situation would possibly be the major factor in the appointment of VCOAS. Musharraf would definitely want that the future army chief should be his most trusted man. Musharraf would also expect from the army to come to his aid when he needs it and that there should be an army chief on whom he can count.

Strong-headed Lt Generals have, therefore, little chance to dream for the key post. Background interviews with those who know a lot about who’s who among our Generals, confirm the fact that amongst the three star generals, Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (DG ISI) Lt Gen Ashfaq Kiyani and Chief of General Staff (CGS) Lt Gen Salahuddin Satti are generally known in the military circles as the most trusted top commanders of Musharraf. But still no one is sure if anyone of them would be picked up for the key slot of the VCOAS.

Satti, though a competent professional and a respected officer, having varied experience, has the greatest disadvantage of being too low in the seniority list of Lt Generals. He has served under Musharraf on different occasions but the most memorable role of Satti that made him the most trusted man of Musharraf was that of Commander 111 Brigade. These were Satti’s troops that conducted the October 12, 1999 successful military takeover in Islamabad. His role in that adventure, however, might not be an advantage if the appointing authority had been some civilian face.

But to promote Satti as four star general would mean to supersede, at least, 12 Lt Generals. Such a huge number of supersessions were never seen in the history of Pak Army and is unlikely too even this time.

Kiyani is generally reputed as a competent, sharp and mature professional, who has always been respected in the military circles. His recent involvement in the deal-dialogue with Benazir Bhutto is the only negative thing attached to his otherwise excellent career.

Although, never in the past any ISI chief could make it to the top-most military post, Kiyani is the most secure bet for his promotion as a four star general. However, still no one is sure if the ISI chief would get the post of the VCOAS.

Kiyani is second on the seniority list following Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, DG Strategic Plan Division. Kidwai is extremely loyal to Musharraf. Kidwai is also beneficiary of the system as he is one of the few exceptions where a Lt Gen was given extension. Kidwai is not a choice for the VCOAS because he has never commanded any division or corps. But some believe that he could be considered for promotion as four star general against the post of CJCSC.

Lt Gen Malik Arif Hayat, Director General C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence), who is the brother of Malik Asif Hayat, secretary labour, is third on the seniority list after Kiyani but is unlikely to get promotion. He has not commanded any corps.

Lt Gen Tariq Majeed, the Corps Commander Rawalpindi, on account of his seniority, competence and loyalty is generally named along with Kiyani for the promotion. Many believe that the top two slots would be shared by this duo.

Between Tariq Majeed and Satti, there are seven three star generals including Mohammad Safdar, Ather Ali, Mohammad Sabir, Imtiaz Hussain, Muhammad Afzal Muzzaffar and Hamid Rab Nawaz. Only Sabir and Hussain are guessed as serious contenders.

A source while saying that Musharraf may spring a surprise but to his reckoning the possible combinations of CJCSC-VCOAS could be Kiyani-Majeed; Kidwai-Kiyani; Kiyani-Sabir; and Kiyani-Imtiaz. According to one source’s estimation, Ahsan Saleem Hayat could also be allowed to continue for being a trusted and time-tested man.

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

According to Ansar Abbasi in this article "loyalty will possible be the key factor"

Loyalty is THE factor here...... and this summarizes the whole process of promotions.

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Re: Eve of the Generals

Americans are not that bad entreprenuer... rather they r pretty good businessmen... do u think they will make such a stupid deal... When they can take all the advantages and benefits without getting their hands getting why they should jump into this mess and make us 51st state... they know that they will loose rest of the 50 states if they make us the 51st...

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

man how can we get rid of this cancer from our beloved country -

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

^ okie yaar :) allah showed us all the right path..really apart from fun, banter and incitement, we are all one..

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Re: Eve of the Generals’ lotto 2007

Seems like it now..but you say it based on the reports floating or some other hints :aq: :wink:

I was wondering what if he replaces VCOAS Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat with Lt Gen Ahsan Azhar Hayat :smiley: I do see a certain pattern with the names of top Generals he has chosen since 1999..

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

I was wondering what if he replaces VCOAS Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat with Lt Gen Ahsan Azhar Hayat :D

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

Se the top names so far are;

Lt Gen Ashfaq Kiyani ISI

Lt Gen Tariq Majeed 10 Corps

Lt Gen Salahuddin Satti CGS

What more...?

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

It would be a first for a serving spook to become COAS, spooks are not trusted by other generals. And calling someone professional soldiers while brokering deals with politicians is amusing?

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

Seniority list

  1. Lt. Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai — DG Strategic Plan Division (SPD)
  2. Lt. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani — DG Inter Services Intelligence (ISI)
  3. Lt. Gen Malik Arif Hayat — serving in GHQ (may not qualify as never commanded a corps)
  4. Lt. Gen Tariq Majeed — Corps Commander, Rawalpindi
  5. Lt. Gen Mohammed Safdar — Chief of Logistical Service (CLS), GHQ
  6. Lt. Gen Ather Ali — DG at Joint Staff Headquarters
  7. Lt. Gen Wasim Ahmad Ashraf — Corps Commander, Gujranwala
  8. Lt. Gen Mohammed Sabir — Military Secretary, GHQ
  9. Lt. Gen Imtiaz Hussain — Adjutant General, GHQ
  10. Lt. Gen Muhammad Afzal Muzzaffar — Quarter Master General, GHQ
  11. Lt. Gen Hamid Rab Nawaz — IG T&E, GHQ
  12. Lt. Gen Muhammad Salahuddin Satti — Chief of General Staff, GHQ

Can anyone tell me the ethnicity of these folks from the list, especially of kiani. Just curious to know.

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

Ethnically I believe they are all Pakistanis.

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Re: Eve of the Generals' lotto 2007

I heard they were Qadiyanis.

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Breaking news - Musharraf to retire as as COAS after election - Reuters

Musharraf to stand down as Chief of Army Staff after Election says Mushahid.