Re: Election Predictions
According to Saleem Safi at the moment international establishment is supporting Nawaz Sharif for the next government, and are trying to convince Pakistan’s establishment for the same.
Re: Super and Permanent Lotay Joining Imran Khan's PTI
Considering the ground situation today I think PTI can be the second biggest party in the next elections with seats ranging between 40-80 (depending upon how they launch their election campaign), PPP 50-60, and PMLN would be the leader with over 100 seats.
will all due respect, PTI will not get more than 25 seats (if lucky)...they will be No 2 in so many places but will not cross the finish line..outside some big cities they simply dont have electable candidates...to win rural belt...sad reality!
Re: Election Predictions
^ even if they get 25 still, PMLN will need others to form a government. Rest we will see, at the moment we can only predict.
Re: Election Predictions
On to the next stage | Opinion | DAWN.COM
DARE whisper it now: we’re there. On the verge of that much sought after civilian-led transition, or a re-endorsement of the last five years.
Here’s the credit — or blame — they each get for getting us to this point: Zardari, 40 per cent; Sharif, 40 per cent; Kayani, 20 per cent.
Zardari because he learned to say both yes and no: yes, to whatever price whoever had a chance of knocking him and his government out demanded; no, to the politics of vendettas.
Sharif because he learned to say yes: yes, to letting a government complete its term, and absorbing whatever hurt came his way for having the gumption to say yes.
Kayani because he chose to say neither yes nor no: sitting on the fence, poking and prodding on occasion but never actually getting off the fence.
Because of those three, and the choices they’ve made, we’re here: with a rickety elected system — democratic being a stretch, for now — with some hope of continuity.
A back-to-back and on-time election is now as close to a certainty as anything can be in the land of uncertainty. Should, then, we pause to celebrate the implausible and applaud the protagonists?
Fuggedboutit. This is Pakistan; this is democracy — what comes next matters more than what came before.
So out comes the crystal ball and into May and beyond we gaze.
The civilians got their election, the army let them have it, the Taliban weren’t able to derail it — now what?
Parliament is hung. Sharif looked like he may run away with it but Pakistan — and Imran — held him back.
Punjab is still Sharif Land, but gone are the days of the Heavy Mandate: we’re firmly in the Era of Coalitions.
The coalition maestro, Zardari, has been relegated to second, still in with a shot for re-election as president and still in charge of Sindh (minus Karachi) but shunted across the aisle — from the treasury to the opposition — in parliament.
The shoe is now on the other foot.
Gen K is going home — he’s told everyone he’s going home — but he’s got six months left as Chief Guardian of Pakistan.
Zardari, 40; Sharif, 40; Kayani, 20 — the old percentages, credit and blame, start anew.
Here’s the doomsday scenario:
Sharif the Democrat fails as Sharif the Coalition Builder. Hung parliament becomes paralysed parliament. One seventy two — the elusive number for prime minister and the keys to the semi-promised land — is unattainable.
Elsewhere, it’s too late for the caretakers to stop the economy from sliding towards IMF oblivion. Law and order, already a mess, slips a few notches further towards catastrophe.
The barbarians are billeted inside, long since done with waiting at the gates. The external environment, shaped by the exit from Afghanistan and the election in India, takes a turn for the worse.
Kayani now has the same choice but in new circumstances: carpe diem — seize the day — or permit national death by drift and paralysis.
Say Kayani chooses the same again: if the civilians sink, they’ll do it under their own weight, not be pushed; if they stay afloat again, Allah be praised and let’s everyone strap ourselves in for another helluva ride.
The choice — to let the elected system (remember, democratic is a stretch) continue as it was meant to — then switches to Zardari.
Stung by an electoral defeat everyone warned him of but he refused to believe, Zardari is feverishly doing his math.
Start with the certainty: the Senate is locked in till March 2015 and the PPP has close to a simple majority there; the PML-N a very distant second.
Zardari’s passive option: he can sit back and enjoy the show as Sharif runs here, there and everyone to get even basic legislation passed, the PPP effectively enjoying a veto with its near-majority in the upper house.
Non-aggression but also non-cooperation — Zardari can just let Sharif’s gung-ho, go-it-alone instinct undo an N-League government all on its own.
The active option: Zardari can lure last-term’s allies into cobbling together a minority government — just enough votes to get the PM elected and a cabinet sworn-in but too few to guarantee any kind of stability beyond the shortest of short terms.
That would be Zardari unable to live with the shoe on the other foot, to extend the same democratic courtesy to Sharif that Sharif extended to him.
On to Sharif: he’s got his government, he’s back as PM, he’s learned a new trick or two — but has he learned enough?
Nominating Kayani’s successor is an early critical decision.
The usual decision process — though there’s nothing usual about something that last happened in 1990s: the chief gives the PM three names, giving the appearance of choice but in reality, the preferred candidate is made known.
Sharif is torn. He could be aggressive and reject all the nominees, opting for what he thinks is a pliant chief he’ll be comfortable with. Or he could go with the preferred nominee and learn to co-exist with a “professional” chief who may have ideas of his own.
There’s another early minefield Sharif has to navigate: seeing out the last few months of another chief — CJ Iftikhar — with a penchant for activism and a perceived reluctance to leave the bully pulpit.
Zardari learned to submit to his flagellation, but will Sharif, Heir to the Mughal Throne, also learn to submit, or will he unleash his dogs of war?
Why all this hypothesising now about a future no one can really know, you may be wondering. Why not focus on how we’ll get through election season, or why the speculation that there won’t be one after all refuses to go away, you may be thinking.
Because perhaps the best way to stop something is to let it happen.
You got your election, you got your politicians, you got your government — and look, it’s more screwed up than ever.
The Bangladesh model doesn’t die with a mere election, or even two.
Re: Election Predictions
Funny how theres so much yapping going on about a party that most folks here think wont get more than 20-30 seats.
Amazingly enough, that party does not even have a party structure at this time.
Furthermore, that party is not even eligible for the elections as yet!
Phir bhi PML-N aur PPP ka peshaab nikla huwa hai.
Heres some ground realities.
1. PTI internal elections will be completed in a week or so, and March 23 will be the official launch of the reorganized party. At that point, parties can begin yapping about whether PTI will get 5 seats or 10.
2. Most people are making assumptions based on 2008 electoral rolls. News flash. The 40 million fake votes that PML-N and PPP benefited from in the elections from yesteryears are NO MORE. Expect some surprises. 40 million fresh, genuine voters were added to the voter list.
3. Irrespective of the end result, no party will have an absolute majority, and no party will likely even have more than 100 seats. Expect a dirty my-wallet-is-bigger-than-yours war between PPP and PML-N in an effort to scrape the barrel and buy every tom dick and harry on the block in an effort to put together 172 seats. And that will invariably mean a weak and unstable government, that is handicapped beyond belief.
Re: Election Predictions
The next parliament would be hung, and I personally support that. For a country like Pakistan which is very diverse the political parties should know how to work with other political players and this would ensure the higher ups to devise policies keeping in view the sentiments of all people of the country. Gone are the days of two third/absolute majority.
Re: Election Predictions
Phir bhi PML-N aur PPP ka peshaab nikla huwa hai.
Har roz kartay hain , Majboori hay , Nizam hi aisa banaia hay ooper walay nay
Re: Election Predictions
Now, Zardari party could do very well if they contested Swiss federal elections. They have worked very hard to support Swiss economy during the times of financial crunch.
Re: Election Predictions
I am revising my prediction for PPPs seats from 50-60 to 40-45 in the coming elections. I have a feeling even JI and JUI will lose seats.
Re: Election Predictions
I am revising my prediction for PPPs seats from 50-60 to** 40-45** in the coming elections. I have a feeling even JI and JUI will lose seats.
listening to Bilawajah speech to his party, seems that their focus is primarily Sindh's (minus Karachi) 61 seats
Re: Election Predictions
listening to Bilawajah speech to his party, seems that their focus is primarily Sindh's (minus Karachi) 61 seats
In the previous elections PPP got 33 seats in Sindh (minus karachi and Hyderabad). This time they are expected to lose some seats to PMLF and the 10 party alliance. In karachi and Hyderabad its mainly MQM. They might even lose their lyari seat.
Re: Election Predictions
Phir bhi PML-N aur PPP ka peshaab nikla huwa hai.
agar yeh ek saath kaain to IK aor us ke Super Permanent Lotay peshab ki tsunami main dhoob marain.:)
Re: Election Predictions
Pee Pee Pee is over......
Re: Election Predictions
[TABLE="class: cms_table, width: 319"]
Revised predictions:
Parties
seats
PMLN
91
PTI
50
PPP
45
FATA
12
MQM
25
ANP
10
PMLQ
8
JUI
6
JI
5
Balochistan parties plus independents
20
This is if PTI gets 50 seats (start increasing them) and PMLNs seats will start reducing.
Re: Election Predictions
well..i have finished my analysis.....
I believe PPP will surprise everyone....overall it will win close to 55 seats...PPP will secure at least 28 in sindh ...in rahimyar khan on all 5 seats they have strong hold plus they have strong candidates at some seats in punjab ... so from 147 punjab seats , it will win at least 15-18 not a big deal..and then fata out of 10 they can secure 1, KPk out of 35 they can win 2 and same in balochistan out of 14 can win 1 atleast .so these r minimum 50 in my opinion .can reach at 55 withPML(Q) adjustment..
PML(N) will be close to 70-90 seats in upcoming elections....if PMLN ends up close to 70,they will absolutely shake hands with PPP. Nawaz will be the PM and will give Sindh to PPP with some federal ministries and Zardari will remain president till 2015. Not a bad scenario for Imran khan because in that case he will run the opposition house single-handily and will be in a better position to win the next elections....
If PMLN gets 90 seats,it does not need PPP to make govt. MQM, Fata and Indep will be enough.
PTI will be between 30-50 seats. If PTI gets close to 50, it is a great performance for a party which was no where 2 years ago.