Election Predictions

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
1

Please share yours as well.

The current scenario makes it seem like PML-N will have an easy way to victory. But things are quite tricky and complex when you compare last elections with the scenario today.

[TABLE=“width: 247”]

Party
2008
2013 Prediction

PPPP
124
85

PML-N
91
100

PML-Q
54
20

MQM
25
20

ANP
13
10

JUI-F
7
5

PML(F)
5
3

Ind
18
15

PPPS
1
1

BNA
1
1

NPP
1
1

In 2008, the above parties combined to bag the 340 seats that were up for election. In 2013, I feel that the results will be as posted above. PPP will lose a significant chunk of its seats, and drop down to the 80s. PML-N will be strong, but not as strong as thought. They may gain a few seats, or may just remain at their previous level. I have listed them at 100 seats. PML-Q and ANP will suffer heavily in popularity. ANP doesnt have many seats to lose, but PML-Q could drop down drastically, as people are forgetting they even exist.

Based on my above predictions, the parties that made up the 340 seats in the 2008 elections, will grab 261 seats, give or take a few. That leaves behind 79 seats up for grabs.

PTI, JI and PAT(awami tehreek) will be the 3 new factors in this election. I see them distributing about 70 of those 79 seats among themselves, with the remaining 9 going to other miscellaneous parties.
PTI…50
JI…15
PAT…5
Misc…9

That would sum up the 340 seats up for grabs. However, this math would make the race very interesting.
PML-N
Out of the major parties, MQM, PMLQ ,PPP and PTI will not ally with PML-N. So if PML-N goes for an alliance with every other party in the list,*** including all independents**,* they end up with 165 seats (not enough for a govt.)
PPP
Out of the major parties, PTI ,PML-N and JI will not ally with PPP. So if PPP allies with every other party, they will get 175 seats (enough for a govt), but that will include very edgy partners like PML-F, Independents, and Misc Parties.
**PTI
**Barring an absolutely outrageous show of support from the public at large, PTI will not have enough to form a govt, as they have repeatedly stated that they will not make an alliance with any status quo party, which includes the main seat winners, i-e PPP, PML-N, MQM, etc.

Of course I could be totally off, but I just feel that the monopoly days are over, and the ruling coalition will be very diluted.

It would be interesting to see what others think. Hopefully your assessments will not be based on party loyalties.

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Re: Election Predictions

Personally I think PPP would be in the 60s, and Pmln would be in 100-130 range. PTI between 25-60 depending upon how they launch their election campaign. Another factor that we can't factor in at the moment is the youth, and other disenfranchised voters. If PTI forces them to vote the situation could change.

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Re: Election Predictions

There's a big difference from last elections. In 2008, it was primarily pro-Mush v/s anti-Mush voting. Things are complicated and difficult to predict this time around.

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Re: Election Predictions

I agree with the OP as far as the election results are concerned except for the fact that it will be difficult for PTI to win 50 seats unless they can reverse the declining trend. If elections are held tomorrow they will certainly not win 50 seats. I would give 10 more to PMLN and reduce PTI to 35 looking at their situation presently. I think MQM will be able to maintain their tally of 25.

I don't agree with post election scenario. Everyone will be jumping desperately to join the largest party to become a part of the coalition including PTI-MQM-ANP-JUIf-JI-IND-FATA-. Pre election positioning will not matter too much post election. Finding enough support to form a coalition is not an issue in a country like Pakistan. PMLN seems all set to lead the ruling coalition post election.. unless the establishment plays some role at that time which is possible. Presently army is very wary of PMLN and they think that PMLN is anti army.. specially General Kiyani is not very fond of NS. He can play some role behind the scene to stop PMLN from coming in the government. Establishment has weakened a lot post Musharraf.. it will be interesting to see if establishment can still manipulate the government formation..

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Re: Election Predictions

I agree PTI has had a declining trend, but I think that they have already cornered a vote bank, which will vote for them, regardless. That should give them 30 odd seats, and I feel they could get another 10-20 seats from the undecided/new voters.

I would be very surprised if PTI became a part of a ruling coalition, and so will many other PTI followers. It will essentially put the party in the same bracket, and they will lose their individuality.

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Re: Election Predictions

It seems PTI can get a good number of seats from KP. Urban Punjab would be interesting to watch.

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Re: Election Predictions

PTI will clean sweep if not then Pakistan will be doomed !

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Re: Election Predictions

Nice analysis Silaaj.

I think we can get a more realistic picture of the overall situation on the ground if all of us present a picture of our constituencies. Who won last time and what trend/mood are we seeing this time.

For example, my constituency is NA-6 Nowshera-II. Historically, here the battle has always been between ANP and PPP/PPP(S). Here is last year’s result:

This time it seems highly likely that PTI will win this seat. Though I am not in Pakistan but I know families and friends who have joined PTI in bulk and my father who is a staunch supporter of ANP says PTI will give a very tough time to ANP this time. People are not very happy with our current MNA and ANP does not have any good candidate for the next election in our constituency. On the contrary, the person who came second last time has joined PTI though he is unlikely to get a ticket this time. The guy who is most likely getting the ticket from PTI is a new comer but has an extremely good reputation.

So from my constituency, I see PTI beating ANP. The difference from last election:
PTI+1
ANP-1

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Re: Election Predictions

^ In KP, it seems PTI will give a tough time to all its opponents.

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Re: Election Predictions

This is my constituency:

[TABLE=“width: 100%”]

NA-126
Lahore-IX
[TABLE=“width: 100%”]
[TR]
Result Announced

Detail Result

Umer Sohail Zia Butt
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML N)
[/TR]

Umar Sohail Zia Butt won the elections last time on PMLN’s ticket, he is not a good candidate and most probably will be given a ticket again since he is a relative of Nawaz Sharif. Most of the roads of his constituency are in a bad condition.

Most of my family members who have been voting for PMLN in previous elections will be voting PTI this time. PTI has introduced a strange phenomena in Pakistani politics, as I have family members who are PMLN and PPP supporters, but the children of almost all will be voting for PTI.

Its still not easy to predict winners at the moment as PTI has not announced its candidate for the constituency, but Lahore would be the battle between PTI and PMLN with PPP as spectators.

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Re: Election Predictions

50 seats for PTI I think you guys mistaken bus seats with MNA. IK will be lucky to score 10 to max 15. If PMLN didn't do any blunder before elections they are all in for sizable win of over 110.

PPP will take at least over 60 seats, I am predicting more seats for ANP & MQM then compare to last elections. JI will vanished if they didn't do seat adjustment with PMLN.

The interesting areas to watch is interior Sindh & South Punjab.

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Re: Election Predictions

Just out of curiosity, and pardon the ignorance, but what do you mean by the "establishment"?

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Re: Election Predictions

This is what i posted in old thread "Election predictions 2013" but i will make a few updates:

  • Punjab (148 seats on offer)

PMLN - 85
PTI - 30
PPP - 15
PMLQ - 10
Others - 8

Sindh (60 seats on offer)

PPP - 30
MQM - 15
PMLN - 2
PTI - 3
Nationalists/JI/Others - 10

KPK (47 seats on offer)

PTI - 20
ANP - 5
PMLN - 4
PPP - 2
JUI - 5
JI - 3
Others - 8

Balochistan (14 seats on offer)

PTI - 4
PMLN - 1
PPP - 1
BNP - 4
Others - 4

Total:
PMLN = 92
PTI = 57
PPP = 48
PMLQ = 15
MQM = 15
JI = 8
ANP = 5

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Re: Election Predictions

Mostly people in Pakistan believe establihment ie army.. In fact establishment in Pakistan means army chief. We are brought up to love our army.. Therefore when we refer to this role of army chief we prefer to call him establishment..

15

Re: Election Predictions

Four or five only
Understand this
Blaming Musharraf, 3 others for Kargil fiasco, a first in Pak Army

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Re: Election Predictions

So according to your assessment, PPP gets at least 60 (lets say 70), and PMLN over 110 (lets say 120). That comes to 190 seats. And PTI is going to get a max 15 (lets say 10). That makes it 200.
Independents will get about 15 seats...and the small 1 man parties will get a total of another 15 seats. That brings the total to 230. Another 20 odd seats for misc parties like JI, JUI, etc. and the total is 250.

Now that leaves us with 90 more seats, which according to you, will be distributed between PMLQ, MQM and ANP.

PML-Q is a gone case....and will get a fraction of what they got in 2008.
MQM and ANP will pay for the terror in Karachi. Whats happening in Karachi is 90% party sponsored, and even if the govt doesnt admit that, the people know that.
Combined, these 3 parties got 92 seats in 2008. Repeating that would be a tall order.

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Re: Election Predictions

All your fellow 'Nirralas' are predicting around 50 seats , This is not cricket and you are not playing against Canada .
Ni sasi e baykhabray ! Ganja lay gia shahr lahore
نی سسئی بے خبرے گنجا لے گیا شہر لاھور

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Re: Election Predictions

Tsunami agaya hai uncle so be careful :ik:

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Re: Election Predictions

My prediction is based on the electoral rolls of 2008. Please keep in mind that those electoral rolls have been dry cleaned, and 4 crore fake votes have been thrown out...and 4 crore fresh genuine votes have been added. You should worry about PPP. Benazir's death is old news now, so no more sympathy votes.

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Re: Election Predictions

This is an excellent prediction.
I would think that PTI would get perhaps a handful more seats than this and PMLN & PPP a handful less.