Election predictions

Just wanted to start a thread to see how people think election results will turn out. Who do you think will win and who will win each area?
If you want to be specific you can write down every minute detail of who wins eac particular area.

It would be good to see whose te closest to predicting Pakistans mood or shall I say the rigged elections to be…

I think PPP wwill sweep Sindh, some areas of balochistan, Punjab - will be split - PPP, PML-Q, PML-N, NWFP - might be won by MMA again…not sure how NWFP will go at all…will PPP, ANP do better than last time?

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To save them from facing shameful defeat in coming election, I think that it would be good idea that PPP along with all parties in opposition boycott the election. Though I believe that PML(Q) and allies would win the election with over whelming majority even if opposition parties do not boycott the election, nevertheless, it would be great to see present government with allies securing over 80 percent of the seats, and to have no one from opposition in Assembly to hinder reforms and constitutional changes.

We should remember that NRO is just an ordinance and not Law passed through assembly. Hence after election, government can retract or let the NRO lapse, than put BB and NS both in prison for foreseeable future.

As for these used cartridges in opposition parties thinking of starting mass demonstration after election, than they are living in fool’s paradise, as that would never happen, as I do not think that they have any reasons to give to the people to come out on roads, neither they have much support amongst the masses, as masses are quite happy with unprecedented work done for common people by present government.

Some of the interesting news in coming election is that: Fazlur-Rahman group has joined hands with PML(Q) in Sindh and are doing adjustment for coming election (Fazlur-Rahman party has reasonable support in upper sindh as well as South Punjab, along with huge support in Balochistan and respectable support in NWFP).

Further news in today’s DAWN is that Jamia Binnoria (Karachi), the biggest Madrassa in Pakistan with influence all over Pakistan, has given their support to MQM in next election (surprising news and must be a big shock for MMA as well as other political parties). Well, the reason they gave for supporting MQM could harm MMA and other parties further, as the reason they gave is their acknowledgement of the work done by MQM for the welfare of common people.

[http://www.dawn.com/2007/12/02/local6.htm

KARACHI: Jamia Binoria to support Muttahida in elections
By Our Staff Reporter

KARACHI, Dec 1: Religious scholar and Jamia Binoria administrator Mufti Mohammad Naeem has announced support for the Muttahida Qaumi Movement in the general elections, scheduled for Jan 8, 2008.

He was talking to newsmen accompanied by City Nazim Mustafa Kamal who paid a visit to Jamia Binoria in Site Town on Saturday.

Mufti Naeem said the decision to support MQM candidates in the elections was taken keeping in view the fact that this party was working for the welfare of the common man.]

All above shows that PPP or parties in opposition have very little chance to win next election anyhow, even in Sindh. As for Punjab, the way NS and BB got reception, no one can expect that they could win many seats there, probably handful of seats if any. Reputation and performance of MMA in NWFP means, next government in NWFP may be of PML(Q) too. Same can be said about Balochistan (coalition government of PML(Q) and Fazlur-Rahman group).

So … its best bet for parties in opposition to boycott the election to keep their unpopularity under cover, and thus sit in their houses without a voice. I believe that in 2013 election, they would lose ground so much that they won’t be there to even boycott elections.

[It seems that amongst all politicians, Fazlur-Rahman is cleaver politician and knows where the wind is blowing, Realising that, he is joining hand with government else he would also going to have no future in politics. In the end, to work for the well being of people and country does pay off, that present government intends to cash, and Fazlur-Rahman wants a bit of share in it, rather left out in lurch.]

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Interesting...and some ppl here have claimed MQM is against Jihadis and radicals. Now they have joint forces. We will need two or three SWAT operations at Karachi in future.

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Interesting indeed, rather a bit surprising too :)

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:rotfl:

Only 80%, mush would be disappointed that under his watchful eye and despite his ballot rigging he will only be able to secure 80%. Far shorter than that other rigged elections for the president post where he secured 95% of the vote. What is the world coming to. Mush only getting 80% of the vote.

Now in a free and fair election PML (Q) would be struggling to save their deposits. That is the difference between reality and rigged elections.

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In free and fair election PPP and PMLN could win with land slide. MQM would keep Karachi and Hyderabad, PPP would sweep interior Sindh and Southern Punjab, and PMLN would take rest of the Punjab. In NWFP ANP would take major chunks of votes along with Sherpo group and JUI and JI would be distance 3 and 4th places respectably. In Baluchistan, nationalists and Q league would win some seats...PPP would take rest...MMA might get few seats...but this can only happen in free and fair election.

The way the things are right now Q-league will get about 140 seats and MQM about 40 and JUI about 30 seats. Thats more than enough for them to form next government and make Pervez Ealhi the PM.

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vote for imran

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Is he taking part in the democratic process?

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if he is contesting from your area that is.
do people not understand parlaimentary system?

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Horrifying isn't it? Just imagine what impact such a government would have without PA directly interfering then. I think that's not what US of A would ever had dreamt of.

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if he does then vote for him.

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if ever he chooses to contest from my area he'll get my vote.

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Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan has had ZERO effect on the politics of Pakistan, and he got such a pathetic welcome by his supporters is a fact now being openly voiced by his party leaders, and unashamedly pro-Nawaz papers like the Nation. Plus the widely predicted defections from the PML Q to the PML N has not materialised at all. This probably explains why Nawaz is dithering about boycotting the elections, as he has realised his stock has considerably plummetted over the 8 years he has been in Royal exile. Hence, I think in a free and fair election the PML Q will fair pretty well, and will definetly get a majority in Punjab, with the PPP taking Sindh, MMA coming out in top in NWFP, but not quite a majority, and a mixed result in Balochistan.

But let me venture an early prediction. Of the 342 seats up for grabs in the National Assembly the final tally could look as follows:-

PML Q - 114
PPP - 86
PML (N) - 34
JUI (F) - 25
MQM - 20
JI - 15
ANP - 10
PML (F) - 6
PPP (Sherpao) - 4
Others (Independents etc) - 28

  • Those marked in bold form the present ruling coalition * - 172 seats are required to form a majority govt. - 228 seats are required for a 2/3 majority.

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U should have added JUI(F) in govt wing as well, and if iam not wrong then the independents etc normally tries to stay in the govt. benches, so Mush led parties has got the simple majority to make a govt... anyway, Mush led govt have done alot damage in past five years ( Balochistan, Swat, Tribal Area, lal masjid) i wonder what they will successfully install anarchy in Punjab and Sindh.

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in my humble opinion

I guess PML-Q will lead in Punjab
PPP will lead in Sindh
MQM will again win city seats in Sindh
PML-n will get around 10-20 seats
ANP will get more seats than MMA in NWFP this time, with PML q some seats
Blochistan - local parties will have lead combined PML-q and PPP will have some seats

Overall PML-Q with associates will manage to get majority need to form next Govt in centre, and Punjab easily.
they have to struggle in NWFP and Blochistan , IF ANP on its side PML-q can form something there too.

Sindh will be tough fight if MQM and PML-Q joined against PPP it will be neck to neck for govt. who will pay for the small parties or members will form the government.

Blochistan will be horse trading paradise again.

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dude allready posted a topic

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Now that Nawaz Sharif has decided not to contest the rejection of his papers, it is looking more likely his party will boycott the elections. That almost automtaically means the seats his party would have won will go to the PML Q instead, and probably ensure they have enough seats with the MQM etc to form the govt again.

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Brother, I don't know why you believe that PPP and PML(N) would get more NA seats than what they got in 2002? What has changed in last 5 years that they became so popular? Again, what made you think that JI, a party that has history of always being a failure in election, would get so many seats?

Plus you wrote that you believe PML(Q) would do fairly well in coming election, still I could not understand that if that is so, how you reduced NA seats they have secured in 2002 election (including independents who joined them and are now part of PML(Q)).

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You are exagerrating. MQM can not win 40 seats under any circumstances.

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PPP can no longer win from Saiekei areas, I think. ANP will do better in NWFP. Balocuhistan will remain same. We can not say anything surely about Northern Punjab. What the voters are thinking over there!

Either they will stay at home supporting IK's boycott or they may vote for either Q or N.