Election predictions 2013

Re: Election predictions 2013

Thanks Seb for putting the discussion back on the track.

Mr Pasha, this is the pessimistic mindset that Pakistan definitely does not need. You go and vote for thiefs. I will look forward for PTI to come into power. And it will as long as elections are fair and according to non-bogus voters' list. I am just keeping my fingers crossed to get the right of vote (for overseas pakistanies like us). You will see how we will reconstruct this beautiful country.

Re: Election predictions 2013

There was a good discussion about ground situation in beginning , than wishes came out like

You are right .
We should examine the ground situation .

Re: Election predictions 2013

so according to you, since ground situation is not for fair and square elections, you will continue to support thieves? That's absolutely very wrong, Sir Pasha.

Re: Election predictions 2013

Whoever thinks Zardari will hold a free n fair elections will really get disappointed. I'm sure he's got a evil plan in his crappy mind already. And based on that, PPP will again sweep upcoming elections and be in govt. :P
Rest can be seen in post-elections era whether ppl come out on street or no.

Re: Election predictions 2013

You live away and Pakistan is your dreamland .
I understand your love for Pakistan and I appreciate it .
But here the ground situation is much different .
We are surrounded in thieves .
I find only Achakzai and present Khan of Qalat as Mr clean only but unfortunately both have no impact on our politics .
Actually we need a new social and regional contract before elections but that is near to impossible .
And question of supporting thieves
We all are doing that .
I find no difference in corrupt ,Bhatta Khors , Chandah Khors and Puppets of establishment .

Re: Election predictions 2013

:(

Re: Election predictions 2013

Ehasan bhai i would 100% agree with you if only overseas Pakistanis were allowed to vote but unfortunately that is not the case and some of our beloved Pakistani brothers can't think beyond parties/individuals/groups etc.
As someone mentioned above, ZAB didn't have to worry about any other west Pakistan leader unlike now when IK is against:
Zardari who enjoys support from blind supporters who would even vote for a dog if allowed to contest election and he iscapable of buying media (already in the process), opponets, vulnerable poor people etc
And Nawaz Sharif who people love simply because he is at least a bit better than Zardari and most opportunitist would support him simply because he has better chance to grab the power.

Re: Election predictions 2013

Likely scenario:

Punjab (148 seats on offer)

PMLN - 75
PTI - 45
PPP - 15
PMLQ - 10
Others - 3

Sindh (60 seats on offer)

PPP - 30
MQM - 15
PMLN - 2
PTI - 5
Nationalists/JI/Others - 8

KPK (47 seats on offer)

PTI - 20
ANP - 5
PMLN - 4
PPP - 2
JUI - 5
JI - 3
Others - 8

Balochistan (14 seats on offer)

PTI - 4
PMLN - 1
PPP - 1
BNP - 4
Others - 4

In my opinion Imran Khan will NOT become our next Prime Minister as he is not ready to form an alliance with any of the parties in current government.
Even if he forms an alliance with JI, Baloch nationalists, Sindh nationalists and even JUI/MQM (highly unlikely but for argument's sake) he will still not be able to form the government as he needs at least 170+ seats in total. Even if Imran takes 100 NA seats somehow, there is no way he will find coalation partners who can bring another 70+ NA seats.

PPP will form an alliance with anyone you can remotely think of to come back to power so it is likely that they will return but i still can't see their government if they don't form an alliance with PTI or PMLN. Same scenario for PMLN as well as they will get around 80 - 85 NA seats in total so they will need to join hands with either PPP or PTI.

Conclusion: No party will be able to form the next government (open secret) so the most likely scenario is PMLN forming an alliance with PPP, MQM and some others.

Punjab - PMLN government
Sindh - PPP & MQM
KPK - PTI (Possible alliance with JI)
Balochistan - PTI + Nationalists

Re: Election predictions 2013

Isn't this the very thought which led to the creation of Pakistan to begin with????

My party cannot loose! My Party is right, rest are security risk! My party can only lead the country out of misery and in case my party doesn't win then Pakistan is doomed, then There is justice in the whole wide world, there security-risk parties are going to sell Pakistan, so lets not make them govt even if they have won.... need to come out this mind set and face the music!!!

The Party you are talking about do not have presence in half of the Punjab... they are non-existent in Sind, they have nothing of much weight in Balochistan and in KPK things may surprise you... and you are talking about clean sweep in a fair and square elections!!! come out of dream world and check the ground realities, your party leader did nothing over the period of last 2 years to organize the party at UC level, something instrumental in wining elections in Constituency based democratic business...

But yes, let us leave the ground realities ( which are ugly) aside, let us forget about it and let us make a mindset which says that only my party can win and if they loose, then it would be more of rigging and then there will be agitation and we will not let any other party rule even if we have to break the country!!!

You are again on the right track for that!!!

Re: Election predictions 2013

Irony is that the above statement applies a lot more to party you support. Let's ignore the ground realities that they are equally corrupt and just vote for them hoping that they will not repeat the same mistakes they made in the past (mind you things hardly changed for PMLN during their 4.5 year rule of Punjab). The same mentality lead to PPP being elected in 2008 and we have seen the results so yeah let's just ignore the past and vote for PMLN, we will get sick of them and ask for PPP back and things will go this way forever until maybe one of Bhutto's or Sharif's grand sons or great grand sons will realize what there forefathers had been doing.

Re: Election predictions 2013

Yeah the only right and clean and party with prospectors is PTI, rest are security risk and if by any chance they win, let us not make them the govt as per the mandate, lets divide/break Pakistan again!!! because other than my party rest of the parties are security risk.... keep this mantra going on!!!

and because i am not from the party you are, because my believes are not what you have, because my heroes are not what yours are... i am dispensable.... that is how we are... wonder why we mourn when a Shia is killed, or Sunni is killed or Muhajir is killed or Punjabi is killed or Pathan is killed or Christian is killed or Baloch is killed.... but do we mourn.. no we don't mourn for them, we do it for our party/fellow believer... that is the nation we are...

we accept things will change overnight!!! yeah thats what we call day dreaming!!

Re: Election predictions 2013

I am not a blind supporter of PTI nor is it my party. I support it because the other two are tried and tested FAILURES. Sorry to burst your bubble as you are a strong supporter of one of them. At least the party I am supporting does not have £500m worth of property overseas in name of their son and yet do not pay any tax as they their income is so meagre. What a shame.

Re: Election predictions 2013

Let me say it clearly here... it is not PTI or PML or PPP or ANP or MQM or whatever... it is the attitude you showed which i am objecting and as i can see in your reply, you haven't got the point, as a matter of fact failed to rise beyond party lines...

again just to make it clear to you, you said:
**
[QUOTE]
Five more years of PPP and nawaz family league will be the end of Pakistan.**.
[/QUOTE]

and comment was, when will we grow up ! when can we think beyond party lines, when can we thing beyond every other believe... in short when can we think as a Pakistani!!! 41 years have passed, we called the winning party of that time a security risk and accuse them with all the charges with which one can be portryed as a traitor!!! what happened then !!! country broke and it so happens that the co-called self-righteous party who blamed everyone was one of the prime reason!!!

Seems from your statement that the same attitude have not changed or we have not learned, we continue to say that other than me, every one is security risk.... to me the person who says that himself is the biggest threat to the people of Pakistan

I hope some day you will start thinking beyond party lines!!! although old habits seldom go away!!!

Re: Election predictions 2013

Yeah just to answer your comment, the party you are supporting does not need to build all these... they sons and daughter of the party leader are living like a royalty and i believe will inherit millions if not billions of pounds...

Re: Election predictions 2013

As the thread is meant for election predictions 2013 and not why we should support a certain party.. I'll try to remain within the domain of the topic meant for discussion.

If there is a country wide election tomorrow where you can vote directly to elect your Prime Minister.. I have no doubt in my mind that Imran Khan will sweep such a poll from Karachi to Khyber. Unfortunately we have a parliamentary system of election where you choose your candidates from your constituency. A typical constituency in Pakistan is more than 5/600,000 thousand people with more than 300,000 registered voters. A constituency is like a mini city where local politics play a big role. As hanibal has pointed out.. the ground reality is PTI is very weak on UC level. Take for instance Karachi.. why is it so difficult to defeat MQM.. their organization exist in every street/mohalla. When local population have some grievances.. local level MQM sector in charge will take care of such problems.. Now PTI does not have any grass root organization in Karachi except for perhaps NA 250.

Everyone in this forum more or less agrees no party is in a position to get out right majority. The next government will be formed by the single largest party.. every other party will try to join this coalition and would not like to be left out. We have seen this during the present tenure. PTI perhaps would opt to sit in the opposition in such a scenario.

Nothing is going to happen to Pakistan.. we are a very resilient nation. Our basic economic numbers/potential is not bad.. financial sector is robust.. corporate profits are growing.. in spite of all the energy issues a lot of businesses are growing/performing.. we have a management problem/issue in the country which will not be solved overnight. A strong PTI opposition watching the governance in Pakistan will be probably better than out right PTI government..

Re: Election predictions 2013

Arent you a staunch supporter of PMNL itself Now dun say you are not!

Re: Election predictions 2013

hanibal, what you will find is that most PTI supporters are actually Pakistan supporter rather than "Party supporters", if they see a better option than Imran Khan then most will switch (including myself) because they think about their country more than party. Reading your previous posts, you might make statements like "Oh yeah only PTI supporters are Pakistanis and rest aren't" but that is not my point. What i am saying is that most people supporting PTI are sick of old parties and see Imran Khan as a ray of hope.
The same can't be said about some PPP and PMLN supporters who will NOT vote for a better person even if an ANGEL comes from skies. Based on performances PPP and PMLN should NEVER win next election but sad reality is that they will rule us for another 5 years.

Re: Election predictions 2013

And to them, Pakistan and Pakistani means, Tehreek-e-Insaaf and member of tehreek-e-insaf!!!

Re: Election predictions 2013

^ that's the same for all party supporters unfortunately and we have been trying both parties at least since 1985, and the country has regressed with each passing day.

Re: Election predictions 2013

Why dont you lead the way and practice what you preach.