Pushing Pakistan to a corner - could it be part of the strategy for US???
**Seeing that Pakistan is not giving up its approach to gain strategic depth in Afghanistan, US might be thinking “why not make Durant line the front line of the battle”. ** Openly alienating US and drawing a hard border would automatically result in one of these scenarios:
It would result in Pakistan overtly supporting Taliban element within Pakistan who are not going to keep quiet and that will result in direct confrontation with Afghanistan (with US/India on the background). If the muted response from rest of the world to the recent border skirmish is an indication, Pakistan can’t assume the rest of the world would jump to its aid.
Although cut-off US links, Pakistan may become frustrated with Taliban and take action on it’s own against them inside Pakistan (akin to a father who defended a son in public but took him to task to set him right).
Either way the US would achieve it’s objective. A moderate Afghanistan buffering Iran and prevent China (through ally Pakistan) gaining access to middle east. (I think, is the most beneficial solution to all including Pakistan.
Wonder what guppies think of this conspiracy theory?;);)
What makes you think US is looking forward to Exit Strategy, the way US is handling things clearly sight they want to leave sooner than later, the only thing they are looking forward today is an honorable re-treat, same what they were looking in Nam, some decades back... and this is only for political mileage only.. because no retreat is honorable retreat.. Period!
I don't think the Americans want to leave the region, they want their combat troops leave the region where as they will have their bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan to secure their security as well as economic interests.
I don't think the Americans want to leave the region, they want their combat troops leave the region where as they will have their bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan to secure their security as well as economic interests.
American never wanted to leave Vietnam either, but there are certain things American have realized, they have not been able to defeat resistance movement in last 10 years, the 100,000+ troops proved to be sitting ducks and technology has paid off little... there are other reasons/factor as well but it is also true that Americans does not have much of a choice... they can either continue what they are doing and gradually loose all its ally or just leave the region asap by agreeing to some kind of road-map, which if get implemented then good otherwise who cares...
Hanibal let's see what happens, the afghan war is in an interesting phase now I hope that that the region as a whole does not suffer the consequences much,
Doppleganger if the americans keep their bases in Pakistan and Afghanistan after the war automatically china goes out of the picture. There could be another regional picture emerging with Pak, china and Russia but that needs a lot of courage from Pakistani side. China wouldn't want a superpower on its doorstep and Russia would try to avenge its dismemberment when ever it gets a chance.
I'm almost same as on Syed views USA want a strong and one and only USA policies in the region as far as Afghanistan 100 percent puppet of USA with close and secret ties with India to secure the goals in region Pakistan don't think and act as what USA thinking. Jesa bhi dirty game ISI involved are its seems Pakistan not wana be a Yes Sir student as like Afghanistan.
It's not Pakistan thou it's Afghanistan who doing same role again A trouble maker.
I can't disagree to your point, American do want their strong presence is the region.. but can they have it their way? i know they will try but are in position to dictate terms?
Well the next few months will be very important to see how things unfold, as the things stand at present every thing seems to be going wrong for the Americans
Hanibal let's see what happens, the afghan war is in an interesting phase now I hope that that the region as a whole does not suffer the consequences much,
Doppleganger if the americans keep their bases in Pakistan and Afghanistan after the war automatically china goes out of the picture. There could be another regional picture emerging with Pak, china and Russia but that needs a lot of courage from Pakistani side. China wouldn't want a superpower on its doorstep and Russia would try to avenge its dismemberment when ever it gets a chance.
If there is a will then there is a way. Pakistan can always limit the bases if it really cares about its economy. I don't think it is america, but lack of initiative on the pakistani side to fix things that is the main problme.
What makes you think US is looking forward to Exit Strategy, the way US is handling things clearly sight they want to leave sooner than later, the only thing they are looking forward today is an honorable re-treat, same what they were looking in Nam, some decades back... and this is only for political mileage only.. because no retreat is honorable retreat.. Period!
Yes, US is looking to leave (that's why I am calling this an exit strategy), but not without some sort of guarantee that Pakistan will NOT move in with its cronies (i.e. Taliban) and control Afghanistan. Ever increasing closeness to China and prevalent anti-US feeling in Pakistan is enough to cause concern in US mindset.
A face-off/stand-off between Afghan (with US backing) and Pakistan would be a cheaper (both monetarily and politically) war for US to fight. But in order for this to happen, the world has to believe Pakistan is indeed synonymous with Taliban and has ambitions of controlling Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the recent direction of events makes one think it could easily happen by 2014. To be honest, there is truth in the fact, that Pakistan is still not willing to give up on Taliban and wants to control Afghanistan through Taliban.
US is playing this game as it knows fully well, that there is no way they can contain or eliminate Taliban without Pakistan's full co-operation. Unless, Pakistan does either a) Force Taliban to moderate and enter compromise (ideal solution) with Afghan people or b)Disassociate completely from Taliban and do all it can to eliminate them, my prediction is likely to come true.
I hope Pakistan proves me wrong and does one of the above once the anger dies down.
The fact that the Civilian establishment which in the recent years appeared to be beginning to gain control of the Armed forces is on the back foot again, makes one fell less optimistic.
US out of picture and the regional powers, i..e Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan take control of thing and jointly sort out the mess, US is not in the region nor does it borders with Afghanistan... even Russia would like to have no role in Afghanistan.. so it is immediate neighbors of Afghanistan who should be there and not some one for land far far away...
US's target in Afghanistan was not Taliban govt, Taliban were there way before US came and i would say, with the full support of US as well... so taliban was not problem back then, taliban won't be problem in future as well because Mulla Omer have already stated that they'll make sure no body uses their land for terrorism..
So here is the scenario, US leaves Afghanistan, with its liking or not, things will get back to normal, after all , Afghanistan never had friendly relation with Pakistan, it was until Russians invaded and Afghanies were left no where to go but Iran and Pakistan...
The US will keep at minimum 3 bases in Afghanistan. They are not leaving. Any thought of that is fanciful.
And Katdaddy in both those scenarios mentioned Pakistan faces terrorists attacks and dead civilians. How does Pakistan benefit in that. Only a gora would think like that.
Ever increasing closeness to China and prevalent anti-US feeling in Pakistan is enough to cause concern in US mindset.
The americans will never comprehend the reason due to which hatred is increasing in Pakistan against their imperialistic policies because they don't want to know.
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A face-off/stand-off between Afghan (with US backing) and Pakistan would be a cheaper (both monetarily and politically) war for US to fight. But in order for this to happen, the world has to believe Pakistan is indeed synonymous with Taliban and has ambitions of controlling Afghanistan.
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If someone is living in a pipe dream that a failed country by 2014 will be able to stand up against Pakistani army is living in a fools paradise. The world should go and pay karzai billions of dollars for at least 15 years for his corruption.
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To be honest, there is truth in the fact, that Pakistan is still not willing to give up on Taliban and wants to control Afghanistan through Taliban.
US is playing this game as it knows fully well, that there is no way they can contain or eliminate Taliban without Pakistan's full co-operation.
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Yes they played their games in Vietnam too. Besides the American think tanks were talking about dismemberment of Pakistan before 911 that makes us believe this is one big game.
The US will keep at minimum 3 bases in Afghanistan. They are not leaving. Any thought of that is fanciful.
And Katdaddy in both those scenarios mentioned Pakistan faces terrorists attacks and dead civilians. How does Pakistan benefit in that. Only a gora would think like that.
That Three bases enough for USA to continue keep their agenda inside or out of border? As soon as they leave karzai's rule start shaken and again a conrol Afghanistan war start. Keep only bases might work in but not in Afghanistan!!
I dont think they would want to leave Afghanistan, they for sure want to reduce their troops there, which in turn reduces their expenses and number of boby bags heading home... but they are here to stay, the work is not done yet, Pakistan is still breathing, holding on to its nukes... US is not going anywhere, until they are forced to go in any way, and it is very hard to make it happen.
