Comprehensive New Poll Shows Most Kashmiris Favor Independence

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
1

The results of a fascinating new study conducted on both sides of the LoC were released today. To my knowledge, this is the largest and most comprehensive poll to date conducted on this issue, and the first poll ever conducted in Azad Kashmir.

The results on the Indian side of the LoC are very consistent with all of the previous polls conducted in the state. Over 82% of ethnic Kashmiris favored independence (ranging from 74-95% between districts), with 10% favoring India, and 4% favoring Pakistan. Not surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of Jammuites favored remaining in India, as did the most of of Ladakh.

The results from Azad Kashmir were very interesting. 51% supported remaining in Pakistan, while 44% wanted independence. Though it’s nowhere near a majority of the population, I’m actually quite surprised by how much popular support there is for independence in Azad Kashmir.

It’s also interesting to see that the idea of joint sovereignty (floated around by Musharraf and supported by some elements within the pro-India establishment in Indian-administered Kashmir) was unanimously rejected in every single district that was surveyed.

Kashmiris favour independence over India, Pakistan

Srinagar, May 26, 2010:

More than 75 percent of people in Kashmir Valley, the centre of a bloody conflict against India, want an Independent Jammu and Kashmir, an opinion poll conducted by a UK based research house suggested.

The Chattam House released the report Wednesday.

The first ever poll on the issue to be conducted across both sides of Jammu and Kashmir divided by a line of control between India and Pakistan concluded that more than 43 percent of the state’s population wanted independence of the whole region, while support for the two options provided under the UN resolution i.e. joining India or Pakistan stood at 21 percent and 15 percent respectively.

The results, however, have been found highly polarised along religious lines in the Muslim dominated state.

The researcher Robert W Bradnock, senior visiting research fellow at King’s College London conducted the research for Chatham House with technical support from Ipsos MORI, in conjunction with FACTS Worldwide India and Aftab Associates in Pakistan.

A total of 3,774 respondents aged over 16 and selected on the basis of quota sampling were interviewed (face to face). Three districts of Indian administered Kashmir Doda, Pulwama and Kupwara were excluded along with Neelum Valley in Pakistan administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Bradnock who has also explored attitude to alternate solutions said that the results of the poll suggest that there was no single proposition for the future of Kashmir which could be put to the population of the former princely state and get majority support.

“One conclusion is clear: a plebiscite along the lines envisaged in the UN resolutions of 1948-49 is extremely unlikely to offer a solution today,” Brandock concludes.

Response

Independence: In aggregate 44 percent in AJK and 43 percent in J&K said they would vote for independence. However, while this is the most popular option overall, not only does it fail to carry an overallmajority, on the Indian side of the LoC it is heavily polarised. In the Kashmir Valley Division, commonly regarded as the core region of Kashmiri identity and of demands for its political recognition, support for independence runs at between 74 percent and 95 percent. In contrast, across JammuDivision it is under one percent. In Leh it is thirty percent and Kargil twenty percent.

**Joining India: **Twenty-one percent overall said they would vote to join India. However, only one percent on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control said they would vote for this, compared with 28 percent on the Indian side. In the Vale of Kashmir support for joining India was much lower, down to just two percent in Baramula. Only in Jammu and Ladakh Divisions was there majority support for joining India, rising to as high as eighty percent in Kargil.

**Joining Pakistan: **Fifteen percent overall said they would vote to join Pakistan. Fifty percent of the population on the Pakistani side of the LoC said they would choose to join Pakistan, comparedwith two percent in J&K, on the Indian side of the LoC. Badgam, in the Kashmir Valley Division, had the highest percentage vote for joining Pakistan at seven percent.

Link to the original study

2

This conclusion, however, is incorrect. The districts of Poonch and Rajouri in Jammu both have large (non-Kashmiri) Muslim-majorities. In both districts, nearly all of the respondents favored remaining in India. Similarly, 80% of the population in Muslim-majority Kargil (where the people are Ladakhi/Tibetan) favored remaining in India.

The results are highly polarized along ethnic lines, not religious.

3

Re: Comprehensive New Poll Shows Most Kashmiris Favor Independence

very often on this gupshup board i read comments that kashmir is in total contorl of army...no freedom of press is allowed....foriegners have no entry to kashmir....and here is an independent servey.....in contradiction to all fandamentalist propaganda...

& thanks janab....article is interesting and unbiased...

4

on the indian side, 47% of the state's population is pro-india and only 43% is pro-independence.

however unlikely, the only conceivable non-status quo outcome is a partition in which the few pro-independence districts in the valley are carved out. these districts comprise only ~10% of the state's territory so as a worst case option for india, this is definitely worth it.

clearly pakistan is completely irrelevant in this whole equation. as for pakistani kashmir, nobody really wants or cares about it so that's irrelevant too.

5

I wouldn't say Pakistan is completely irrelevant in this. Clearly, there are only two viable sides to this equation; Pakistan and India.
This is just one of many polls, another Dutch poll comes to mind as well, that have found a similar results. I think these polls play a pivotal role in India's calculus. Every peace plan, that has thus far been agreed upon but not implemented, sees India giving up a portion of the Valley to Pakistan. This lets Pakistan save face, but also lets them deal with a majority, in their territory, that want independence.

6

There is no way Pakistan can get Kashmir (Indian side) included as part of Pakistan.

The best Pakistan can get is independent Kashmir in which case it will lose all the AJK, Gilgit and Baltistan.

What is Pakistan gaining by spending so much on sponsoring militancy in Kashmir under the name of moral support? They could utilise all the resources and money to develop NWFP, Sindh etc.

My question is:

What has Pakistan gained by spending so much (time/money) on Kashmir?

And why do 44% of Kashmiris in Pakistan administered Kashmir want independence? If they were happy and as fellow Muslims they should prefer to stay with Pakistan.

Look at Non Muslim Kashmiris, All Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs would like to stay with India and do not support independent Kashmir.

7

Re: Comprehensive New Poll Shows Most Kashmiris Favor Independence

I think the poll clearly demonstrates that approaching the problem with goal of somehow maintaining the territorial integrity of the colonial state is a mistake, and will only breed further instability in the region.

As I've repeatedly stated in the past, the only viable solution is to trifurcate the state - with the Kashmiri-majority districts forming an independent state (possibly like Bhutan - with complete independence, but cooperation in terms of foreign relations). In that scenario, Jammu would become a full Indian state in its own right, and Ladakh would become a union territory, as it has been requesting for years.

India would retain nearly 75% of the current Indian state's territory, and wouldn't have to cede an inch to Pakistan. According to the survey, within that territory 86% would be in favor of remaining in India (with 0% in favor of Pakistan, and less than 2% in favor of independence), effectively quashing the possibility of any further pro-independence agitation in the region.

As for the Pakistani-administered areas of the state, it would seem that the pro-Pakistan camp still form a slim majority in the region. My guess would be that at least some of the support for independence in the region stems from (a) gross political mismanagement and the denial of constitutional rights to the people in the region; and (b) the presence of a sizeable ethnic Kashmiri-refugee community, who should be repatriated to Kashmir anyways. AJK and Gilgit/Baltistan need to be granted some sort of official status under the Pakistani constitution, and get effective, autonomous, elected governments.

8

What does India gain from holding all these people who want nothing to do with India hostage?

Why are you so content with holding these people against their will?

Pakistan will be content with allowing these people their legitimate right to self determination. Indians on the other hand see this only as a shallow territorial issue. For Indians there is no humanitarian issue here at all, for them its just a matter of ego.

9

You think it is not a territorial issue? If it was humanitarian Pakistan would not killed millions of Bangalis in East Pakistan. They would not stop from Biharis to come to Pakistan who have been stranded in Bangladesh for thirty years. Dont talk about humanitarian issues.

Is Pakistan ok with losing AJK, Gilgit and Baltistan if Kashmir becomes independent?

I dont think India want Pakistan adminsitered Kashmir. Offically it wants entire Kashmir but realistically it know that LOC would become the defacto border. In no way will India give any more land to Pakistan.

10

Why are you dragging Pakistan into this? No one in the Pakistani-administered areas wants to join India, and virtually no one in the Indian-administered areas wants to join Pakistan.

The Kashmir Valley is apparently the only area in the entire former princely state where most of the population favors some sort of change in sovereignty, and it has repeatedly been shown that the overwhelming majority there only want independence.

Again, tying the fate of the whole colonial state together is only going to breed further instability in the region.

11

Re: Comprehensive New Poll Shows Most Kashmiris Favor Independence

From experience I know that most kashmiris either want independence or join Pakistan. They have seen what inhumane things Indian army does to them in jammu-kashmir.

12

from my experience they want to stay with india and that's not gonna change. mirchi lage to pani pe lena.

13

I guess it’s a good thing that there’s a mountain of evidence to show that your alleged experiences are not indicative of actual realities in Kashmir:

1995 Outlook India “Kashmir Opinion Poll”:
72% Independence
19% Pakistan
7% India

2002 MORI (Market & Opinion Research International) Survey:
78% Neither India nor Pakistan (independence was not an option in the study)
13% Pakistan
9% India

2007 Indian Express/Centre for the Study of Developing Societies Survey:
87% Independence
7% India
3% Pakistan

And the current study which shows:
82% Independence
10% India
4% Pakistan

14

Give me a break with this Bangladesh stuff... The entire Bangladesh fiasco was a civil war. And the majority of PAKISTANIS never have and never will support any human rights violations done in their name. That is why we Pakistanis have come to terms with Bangladesh and have even accepted the blame.

Besides, unlike Kashmir which is an issue that is yet to be settled, Bangladesh was a recognized part of Pakistan.

Indians on the other hand collectively support any form of draconian system that ensures its continued illegal occupation of the Kashmiri people.

The official policy of the Pak govt is that the people of Kashmir have a right to decide their own fate, a policy which incidentally shared by the likes of the great Mahatma Ghandi and Nehru himself. . India's official policy is that Kashmir beliongs to India PERIOD.
So who do you think is more concerned with the people of Kashmir? You who would allow an occupation army of THOUSANDS occupy and torture Millions of people, or we who would like to see them gain the same rights that all people yearn for?

As for Gilgit Baltistan. Last I checked the history of the region favors Pakistan. But regardless, I believe Pakistan would and should accept whatever the people of Kashmir choose.

15

What is clear from the survey, that peoples perceptions change over time.
Now more Kashmiri's are happy to remain with India than Pakistan. In the past it was the other way round.

Give this another 10-20 years, and people in J&K will be glad to be with the rising star India, than a conflict ridden country like Pakistan.

16

Re: Comprehensive New Poll Shows Most Kashmiris Favor Independence

^The percentage of people who want independence is over a whopping 80%. "Rising star" or not, India is not what Kashmiris want. And it is unlikely that will change if the survey is anything to go by.

17

You have indeed very fertile imagination. And I hope "that's not ganna change."
:)

18

Actually, looking at the data from the past 15 years, it seems that support for remaining in India has been very stable. Every single survey has found that 7-10% of the population wants to remain under Indian rule.

On the other hand, support for independence appears to have grown, as pro-Pakistan minority has gotten progressively smaller. I suspect that the only change in perception that has occurred over time is that many of the people pro-Pakistan camp have switched over to supporting independence.

19

http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/topic,463af2212,469f2dcf2,487ca21a2a,0.html

As detailed by Human Rights Watch (HRW) in a 2006 report on the region, individuals and political parties who do not support Kashmir’s accession to Pakistan are barred from participating in the political process, standing for election, taking a job with any government institution, or accessing educational institutions.

20

Re: Comprehensive New Poll Shows Most Kashmiris Favor Independence

Just 2% of people in J&K want to join Pak