CJ restored: Now whats next

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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The 62 years old car of Pakistan has been running on such an uneven journey that no one is sure of anything. For example: 2 days back no one could say that Govt would really reinstate the judges due to their past behavior. Making promises and then not keeping them looked to be the simple but only principle of present administration.
Now, with the new change would take in effect from 21st, what next for Pakistan, which has been fighting with countless problems both inside and outside the country. How will CJ+PM+President combination work?
Here is what Ruetors say about this:

SCENARIOS-What next in Pakistan? | Reuters

SCENARIOS-What next in Pakistan?

March 16 (Reuters) - Pakistan’s government agreed on Monday to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as chief justice in a surprise move to defuse a crisis and end agitation by lawyers and activists. [ID:nLF205623]

The decision is seen as a climb-down by President Asif Ali Zardari, who had long resisted reinstating the judge, fearing Chaudhry could undermine his position, and a victory for his main rival, opposition leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Tension will linger between Zardari and Sharif whose parties, the countries’ two biggest, have long been rivals. Analysts say there is no trust between the men and both are hard-nosed political battlers.

Following are some scenarios for the nuclear-armed country which is also struggling to stem Islamist militancy and revive a flagging economy:

TENSION OVER THE SHARIFS’ ELIGIBILITY

A main issue that could inflame tension is the question of the eligibility of Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz, to hold elected office.

A Supreme Court ruling last month barred the Sharifs from elected office and triggered this crisis. The Sharifs said Zardari was behind the ruling that was based on old convictions they say were politically motivated.

In a first step toward reconciliation, the government said on Saturday it would seek a review of that court ruling. Tension will build if the Sharifs are not made eligible for election quickly.

CONFLICT OVER PUNJAB

Another, related source of tension between Zardari and Sharif is control of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous and politically important province, returning more than half the members of the National Assembly.

Last month’s Supreme Court ruling nullified a by-election victory by Shahbaz Sharif, and disqualified him from holding the office of chief minister of Punjab. The Sharif party’s government was thrown out of power in the province and Zardari imposed central rule there for two months.

The Sharifs’ party is the biggest in the provincial assembly but it does not have a majority. Zardari’s PPP is second biggest while a party set up to support former President Pervez Musharraf holds the balance of power.

A bid by Zardari for control of Punjab would spark a political battle with the Sharifs. Control of the province was a main source of conflict between the two parties in the turbulent 1990s.

LEGAL PROBLEMS

Chaudhry earned a reputation as an independent-minded maverick that eventually led former President Pervez Musharraf to sack him. Similarly, Zardari has feared that if Chaudhry was restored he would rule Musharraf an illegal president and overturn an amnesty the general had given him and his wife in 2007 to allow them to return to Pakistan without fear of prosecution on old corruption cases they said were politically motivated. Analysts expect Chaudhry to be cautious and make no hasty moves to rake up old controversy, but they also say he might not be able to prevent the revival of legal challenges to Zardari’s amnesty. That could spark tension between the president and the judiciary. If the amnesty was ruled illegal, that could result in cases against the president being resurrected, a prominent lawyer said.

MORE STABLE POLITICS

Optimistic analysts say Chaudhry’s return has restored faith in Pakistan’s democracy and political order and that will contribute to stability. They point to the constructive role of a growing middle class, civil society groups and the media. They also point to the role of army chief General Ashfaq Kayani, who was involved in negotiations that led to the judge’s restoration. Whereas in the past, military leaders might have been looking for an excuse to step in and take power, Kayani’s help in defusing tension might show a new kind of power structure was evolving. Zardari, though weakened, is seen as a survivor who can live with the setback to his credibility. Sharif, at least in the short term, may not want to be seen grasping for power after taking what was seen as a principled and widely popular stand on Chaudhry’s restoration, the optimists say. (Additional reporting by Augustine Anthony; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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Re: CJ restored: Now whats next

positive step forward lets hope and finger crossed

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Seriously, I think they'll be now opening up cases against Mr. Musharraf...unless Army or US comes in the mid and refrain them from doing so

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All being said and done, what happened in Lahore should not be repeated. Creating anarchy, revolting and mobilizing people against government, taking disagreements on the streets, attacking government through conspiracy and propaganda, making a mockery of law and order, physically attacking police forces. If everyone who has a disagreement with the government takes this route, there will be very little difference between Sudan and Pakistan.

This may have worked for political gain in the past, but at the cost of the country. Now is the time for all political parties to behave in a civilized manner. Leaders who preach and claim to practice democracy must obey its laws. Such anarchists can and should be dethroned and purged with the unanimous agreement of all major institutions of the country, naming, Army, Federal government, Judiciary and Intelligence.

Shareef summed it up right, "Change is on its way." I agree with him this much.

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Very well said!

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I guess the coming days and weeks will be very interesting. There appear to me more questions than answers. Especially with the wording of the speech and waiting until CJ Dogar retires?

BBC NEWS | World | South Asia | Clouded details of Pakistan deal

Clouded details of Pakistan deal

By M Ilyas Khan

BBC News, Islamabad

Tension has eased, optimism has been renewed and a wave of jubilation has swept through the country. A long, fraught night in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, culminated in the government’s decision to reinstate the chief justice who was sacked more than a year ago. Lawyers who had campaigned for Iftikhar Chaudhry’s reinstatement were ecstatic. The public was also happy, because the decision had averted a major confrontation between the two largest political forces of the country, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of President Asif Ali Zardari and the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) of ex-PM Nawaz Sharif. The two parties had together swept the 2008 elections and formed an alliance to rule the country. The alliance was widely welcomed by the electorate as it meant that the two parties would not resort to the political squabbling of the 1990s which destabilised successive governments and impoverished the economy.

Transfer of power

But the parties drifted apart over the question of the reinstatement of Justice Chaudhry, who had been sacked by military ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf in 2007. Public aspirations can no longer be ignored either by politicians, soldiers or judges, Justice Chaudhry included. Many say Gen Musharraf sacked him because he feared the judge might upset his plans to win a second term as president. Gen Musharraf’s successor, Mr Zardari, had pledged to reinstate Justice Chaudhry but was accused of delaying the move because he feared the judge might revive corruption cases against him. Those cases were instituted by the government of Nawaz Sharif in 1997 but were withdrawn by Gen Musharraf’s government under the transfer-of-power deal which paved the way for the 2008 elections. That transfer-of-power deal also apparently contained an agreement that would protect Gen Musharraf from prosecution for actions during his leadership.

So what backroom deals were done to secure this latest accord, apparently sealed following high-level negotiations in which the army and some US diplomats played a key role? What deal has been done on charges against Musharraf? While the government has apparently agreed to make Justice Chaudhry the chief justice, it is still not known if this will mean a reversal of Gen Musharraf’s order to sack him. Legal experts say a reversal would expose Pervez Musharraf to prosecution for illegal conduct, something many say is unlikely to happen. If, on the other hand, Justice Chaudhry is being offered an arrangement that does not term his sacking illegal, then the PML-N and some top lawyer leaders may have agreed to let Pervez Musharraf off the hook. Then there is the question of Nawaz Sharif. His PML-N threw its weight behind the lawyers’ movement after the Supreme Court upheld a ruling to ban him and his brother Shahbaz from elected office. Shahbaz was chief minister of Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, and had to step down. The central government extended federal rule to Punjab. It seems the government has now offered a judicial review of that judgment. This, together with the decision to reinstate Justice Chaudhry, has rekindled hopes for many that the two parties may revert to the post-election phase of mutual cooperation. There is certainly a growing feeling that politically motivated cases, such as those against Mr Zardari or the Sharifs, have damaged the credibility of the judiciary.

Aspirations

But what of Justice Chaudhry himself? Will Chaudhry now be reluctant to delve into the controversial? In the past, he has shown himself to be an independent minded judge, not shy of passing judgments that hurt government interests. He shot down some privatisation deals of the Musharraf government and forced the intelligence agencies to produce political prisoners they had earlier denied they were holding. But Justice Chaudhry has now been sacked twice. First in March 2007 and again in November of the same year. Although, on both occasions, public pressure played a decisive role in his reinstatement, some analysts say Justice Chaudhry may now be reluctant to delve into matters that will prove controversial. The people want justice and the rule of law, but also political stability, democracy and equal opportunity. In the presence of an aggressive media, public aspirations can no longer be ignored either by politicians, soldiers or judges, Justice Chaudhry included.

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Ofcourse, people want stability. Hope we get it. Times are still dangerous and the bomb blast in RWP has proved that.

Sing a Song according 2 Ur Mood !!!!!
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The SC ought to look into May 12 massacre and give closure to the families of the deceased. So many precious lives were lost on that day, and the SC owes it to the people to deliver them justice.

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Re: CJ restored: Now whats next

The first things he should go after:

  • Repeal the NRO
  • Kick Musharraf out of the Army House and reopen the illegally acquired farmhouse cases
  • Investigate the May 21st atrocities at the hands of the MQM (CJ owes us that)
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Re: CJ restored: Now whats next

Indications are coming in that CJ will not be sitting through and listening to NRO cases, in an effort to show impartiality and fairness. The bench may be made consisting of other justices.

This according to Aitzaz Ahsan. This is just an indication, and is not a sure thing.

I would however expect him to raise the issue of missing persons cases which was left hanging in the middle, as well as Govt transactions which have since taken place, i.e. selling of the mine(s) to non-nationals, lal masjid fiasco and determine whether what the then govt. did was right or wrong and bring a closure to it so the justification that many use "suicide bombings happen because of lal masjid action" can be over and done with, and other national issues which need urgent and much deserved attention.

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I think CJ has bigger task in front of him then these petty issues...( although all these carries certain importance but still bigger tasks awaits CJ)

CJ have given the nation an idea of independent Judiciary and the benefits of justice... He has to lay soild foundations on it.. he has to build up team of judges and at the same time he has to clean the Justice system from the judegs like Dogar...

While doing so, he need to take actions against corruption and other evils of the society.. giving true relief to the people of Pakistan... shifting the habit down to lower courts.. persuading the judges of lower courts to deliver justice by his actions and words...

I believe if it is done, the NRO-Politicians will flee the country... the murderers will no way out and Pakistan will florish..

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They might try but its very unlikely they will touch NRO and prosecute Musharraf. Govt is reinstating CJ because of Army’s involvement, so army will probably stop any prosecution of Musharraf, Zardari will not let NRO be repealed, in NRO’s case he will have backing of more politicians. Lest see :chai:

As for May 12, 2007, that is very doubtful to because MQM will not let that happen.

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I have a feeling Rehman Malik is about to vacate his position. He has failed miserably from start till now. He failed as the Security chief of BB's rally, he failed at controlling terrorism, he failed at handling the Kasab case properly, he failed at delivering to the President in the current crisis and only made the situation worse which made PML(N) stronger.

He maybe sidelined, nothing has been heard of him or the President in the past 24-36 hours.

Not to mention that Khwaja of PML(N) constantly kept repeating in all the talkshows that Zardari has surrounded himself with non-political persons, so Zardari might work to move them in order to work with other parties so he can secure his presence as the President, or risk a failure of agreements yet again.

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this thread reads like a what i want for christmas thread :hehe:. This sure has given pakistanies hope, thats pretty evident.

I agree with hanibal and ehtasab. it is politically difficult to go after the establishment (read army) given that the army got him reinstated. Musharraf may no longer be COAS but whatever actions he did, he did not do as an individual, but as representative of an institution. Institutions tend to protect themselves. also further political turmoil is counter productive. We need to allow democracy to continue for a few decades, and hope that the system will end cartoons like Zardari, Musharraf, Nawaz and Altaf, rather than any one man.

we dont know what he will do, but i would like the judiciary to focus on systemic flaws that have let down Pakistanies for decades in the institution in his purview. Politicians never get prosecuted, and when they do, they never get convicted. Why is NAB allowed to be used as a tool to buy and sell politicians? thanks to this movement, people now have expectations of atleast one institution, it shouldnt fail them now in providing speedy, universal justice. And someone has to eventually try to get the Army to behave like an army of a modern democracy. Someone has to make them focus on their primary mission i.e. fighting wars and protecting the borders, instead of ruling the country. How is that to be done, when we rely on them to settle political issues?

Baal Ki Khaal
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I think Kayani has turned the page on Army involvement in the politics (atleast publically). Many people were expecting him to come on the Television not the PM, had the current crisis continued. But whatever discussions they (PM, COAS, President) held, seemed to have produced results that were in-line with public expectations without risking another take over where Army chief is seen as the agitator and destroyer of a democratic setup that has just begun after 8 years of Army rule.

Good maneuvering on the part of Army chief i think.

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yar, the army has been involved in any big spats all through the history of our country ever since the first martial law. it hasnt always resulted in martial law (there have only been four military rulers, but their political involvement is much more entrenched)... so this isnt exactly a novel precedent.

it wasnt politically expedient for them to throw a coup at this point. The most I was expecting was Zardari to be removed (possibly violently) if he put up a fight. But he didnt. So it didnt go further.

they retain the power to make major decisions in our country. "he" decided not to takeover. it was an option. and that needs to change. They need to be entirely subservient to elected representatives and the will of the people.

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Yea, no doubt. But shouldn't we blame ourselves as well. We the Pakistani public tend to be very emotional and reach conclusions rather quick. One minute we want the Army out of politics, the next minute we expect the COAS to force President into doing what the public demands.

The public is slowly marching towards that maturity, but more needs to be done. Because until a govt. which itself is disciplined, can be elected, we will contine to expect the Army to rein in on the govt because the politicians turn disagreements into a political war, which needs to change.

When politicians are mature enough to conduct their business in a professional manner which is in the best interest of the nation and public, army will have no choice but to become subservient, but until then.................

Arain Caste?? Help solving the mystery?
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this is why i was apprehensive of this long march stuff. it was calculated to create a situation where the army would it intervene, like in the 90s. we need to have more respect for the democratic process, and learn to live with sucky situations if they are created by the democratic process. It seems that in the short term democracy will gift us with inept, screwed up people like NS and Zardari, who will make unpopular decisions. We need to learn to register our distaste through the system, not outside it.

ideally this would've happened through the assemblies, the way the four provincial assemblies passed resolutions to get rid of Musharraf, it made his situation morally untenable. But for that to happen they would've needed an electoral majority. for that to happen they would've needed to wait for the next elections. but we werent willing for that.

its understandable why waiting for the next elections seemed unsuitable. utni dair mei everyone would've forgot about it, and moved on. perhaps we need something like the mid-term elections in america, where the will of the people is measured 2 years after the presidential elections.

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Turkish model of governance has been talked about for a while for Pakistan, where the the Army, the most powerful institution remains in the background, but only steps in to guide the politicians in the right direction if required. I guess, the events of past 48 hours has accelerated this model for Pakistan. Not a bad thing.

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So why aren't mid terms held currently? Or is it something that has to trigger it such as break away of parties, etc?