this is a good article about nukes pose to the world.
Tuesday November 13, 2001-- Sha'baan 26,1422 A.H
I Hassan
Banish the bomb
The writer is a former broadcaster, commentator, foreign correspondent and a freelance columnist
Two recent statements about Pakistan's nuclear capability or capacity do not bear scrutiny. The first one was made by General Musharraf during a press interview. He stated that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal was in safe hands and that it was the cornerstone of the country's defence. The second was by a government spokesman (no doubt emanating from the first source) that Pakistan's nuclear armaments were so secretly stowed that nobody knew where they were and nobody could ever know.
For these statements to be flowing out with such rapidity, there must be a good reason. That reason became obvious when a few days ago President Bush issued a warning that terrorists were likely to get hold of either nuclear devices or obtain the means to make their own nuclear bomb. A suggestion was made that terrorists would or could steal nuclear material. Both General Musharraf and the government spokesman were in fact reassuring President Bush that this country was out of bounds to nuclear thieves.
Now, I shall take up the General's declaration. He as a soldier should know better than the mullahs who day in and day out mouth the same tune that the nuclear bomb is the best defence we have. The general should know that it is the worst possible defence, for defence it is not. The possession of the bomb is the worst possible threat of offence. For a small country to possess one is to do itself the worst possible disservice. First of all it must be reiterated what a nuclear bomb is. In spite of the fact that our generals think that it is an extremely loud bang, they along with the mullahs do nor know that three or four strategically placed bombs on Pakistan will put paid to the country. It will be annihilated. Everything will cease to function.
If Mangla and Tarbela dams are breeched billions of gallons of radioactive water will sweep down the country. Thereafter there will be nothing to eat for those who may have survived extinction. They would have hardly any water to drink. In fact they would wish that they had died with the first blast. And if our valiant soldiers think that they will be sitting pretty in their bunkers, safe and alive, then they had better start studying the after effects of a bomb explosion. They too would wish that they were dead if they survived at all.
All this will happen or can happen, by over touting the bomb. The attacker who could be the one with enormous depth which this country does not have, in order to avoid being hit by a nuke would pre-emptively lodge the first two or three strategic bombs. That would make it impossible for Pakistan to retaliate. If on the other hand Pakistan did not have the blessed bomb, then the opponent may not want to use his bomb. There would appear to be no need. The best defence for Pakistan is to renounce the bomb altogether, as indeed it is for the whole world. I shall revert to this later.
For the second spokesman of the government to declare that nobody knows where Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is stored or located is poppycock. It is an axiom that for a secret to be maintained, only one person must be in possession of it. The moment a second person knows the chances of a leak increase. With a secret like the nuclear arsenals, hundreds of persons are in the know. Those whose business it is to find out will find out. After all when the first nuclear bomb was being developed in the 1940s, it was the topmost secret of the world. It was code named Project Manhattan. Despite all efforts to maintain this secret, the Germans knew and they were racing to come out with a bomb before the Americans could. The Germans lost the race and consequently the war.
Now when President Bush says that terrorists can steal the bomb or the enriched uranium or plutonium to make it, he may not have been hinting at Pakistan but the latter felt bound to assert that Pakistan's nukes were safe. The greatest source for obtaining either the bomb or the material to make it is either Russia or the US itself. They between themselves have 98% the material or bombs. It is no longer unthinkable that somebody should smuggle a nuke into New York and blow it up. After the demolition of the twin towers of the WTO, NY, nothing is too outlandish and unthinkable. A bomb can be smuggled into New York in a container. Thousands of containers are landed in that city. It is impossible for anyone to check the contents of every container before despatch or after receipt.
The remedy therefore is for all nuke possessing nations to dispose of their bombs and their bomb making material. For this purpose both Russia and the US are well suited to lead and work toward arriving at a treaty or protocol to ban the nuke. After all after World War I, poison gas was banned by a Geneva Convention. To this day that agreement has held. And poison gas was not half as horrific as a nuke.
Tony Blair, the super salesman who is going around frantically trying to sell refrigerators to Eskimos, as it were, could employ his considerable talent in the pursuit of the abolition of the bomb. After all, in the weeks since Sept 11, Mr Blair has paid visits to Berlin, Paris, New York, Washington, Brussels, Moscow, Islamabad, Delhi, Riyadh, Amman and Tel Aviv. And now he is off to Washington on the Concorde. Never in the days of yore did a British Prime Minister ever leave his proverbial imperial throne, except at the time of Munich in 1939 when Mr Chamberlain went to meet Hitler. Now the monarch sits in Washington. Once the bomb is banned altogether and disposed off by everyone, that will be the time to breathe easily and relax.
The News International, Pakistan