I invite you guys for a brain storming to analyze who might have gained or lost from BB’s assassination. Please be objective and provide the reasons of your analysis.
Let me start by identifying any stake holders.
**Internal Stake holders:
**
Musharraf
Chaudries of Gujrat
Fanatic mullahs (read Taliban, Al-Qaeeda etc.)
Nawaz Sharif
MQM
Other PPP fractions (Sherpao, Ginwa Bhutto etc.)
Internal PPP leaders
…
…
**External Stake holders:
**- USA / Israel
India
Afghanistan
Russia
China
Iran
…
…
Could we now try to identify the objectives, which might be achieved by BB’s death?
And who might have gained/lost what from reaching those goals?
*Internal Stake holders:
*
- Musharraf - a lot of people wil suspect musharaf/government but maybe the ISI shoulde be classified separately. maybe they thought bhutto's and sharof's arrival could split the country - one becoming the leader in sindh, other punjab. other reason mush coul dhave done it is because he did not want her to be popular and was running out of ideas to deal with her.
Chaudries of Gujrat - dont know much about them but surely they would not want to take this risk.
Fanatic mullahs (read Taliban, Al-Qaeeda etc.) - the taliban/al qaeda do not necessarily have to be made of mullahs. of course they wanted to get rid of her for obvious reasons.
why was nt she killed while in peshawar? WHY pindi?
Nawaz Sharif - highly unlikely
MQM - highly unlikely
Other PPP fractions (Sherpao, Ginwa Bhutto etc.) - highly unlikely
Internal PPP leaders - more possible as it gives them a chance to take power
...
...
**External Stake holders:
**- USA / Israel - hard to say what the USA wants in pakistan? a passive muslim state is the one thing we could agree on i guess. does the usa/israel want a united pakisan or split into several countries? they nuclear factor - my view is that one day they will take out the nuclear but even then will they take out all of it? surely thats a gamble?
if the USA were behind this they would do it for 2 reasons:- 1. to get rid of a leader they thought could do them favours 2. to bring her back and cause instability or bring her back, killer her and cause instability.
India - however weak pakistan is, india will lurch ahead but i doubt the would do this BUT they can very easily be supporting extremists against pakistan. plenty of offices in pakistan to do it.
Afghanistan - has no policy of its own and will just be a country where india or the usa will exercise their might.
Russia - i doubt it
China - maybe did nt see their interests in bhutto and thought she would swing too far the american way
*Internal Stake holders:
*
- Musharraf - a lot of people wil suspect musharaf/government but maybe the ISI shoulde be classified separately. maybe they thought bhutto's and sharof's arrival could split the country - one becoming the leader in sindh, other punjab. other reason mush coul dhave done it is because he did not want her to be popular and was running out of ideas to deal with her.
Chaudries of Gujrat - dont know much about them but surely they would not want to take this risk.
Fanatic mullahs (read Taliban, Al-Qaeeda etc.) - the taliban/al qaeda do not necessarily have to be made of mullahs. of course they wanted to get rid of her for obvious reasons.
why was nt she killed while in peshawar? WHY pindi?
Nawaz Sharif - highly unlikely
MQM - highly unlikely
Other PPP fractions (Sherpao, Ginwa Bhutto etc.) - highly unlikely
Internal PPP leaders - more possible as it gives them a chance to take power
...
...
**External Stake holders:
**- USA / Israel - hard to say what the USA wants in pakistan? a passive muslim state is the one thing we could agree on i guess. does the usa/israel want a united pakisan or split into several countries? they nuclear factor - my view is that one day they will take out the nuclear but even then will they take out all of it? surely thats a gamble?
if the USA were behind this they would do it for 2 reasons:- 1. to get rid of a leader they thought could do them favours 2. to bring her back and cause instability or bring her back, killer her and cause instability.
India - however weak pakistan is, india will lurch ahead but i doubt the would do this BUT they can very easily be supporting extremists against pakistan. plenty of offices in pakistan to do it.
Afghanistan - has no policy of its own and will just be a country where india or the usa will exercise their might.
Russia - i doubt it
China - maybe did nt see their interests in bhutto and thought she would swing too far the american way
Iran - highlu unlikely.
.
Ok from your post I identify the following objectives, pls feel free to correct me if I am wrong:
prevent the possible split of the country (Internaly: every Pakistani a stake holders here. Externally: friends / enemies of Pak also stake holders, since they would / would not let this objective achieved)
stop her from becoming PM ( every other political party as a stake holder)
create instability in the country (also quite a few stake holders here)
....
....
About "why the blast occurred in Pindi and not in Peshawar". Please elaborate what do you want to emphasize by relating this to Taleban/Al-Q.?
*PS.: The likelihood / unlikelihood who may or may not have caused this could be discussed int he final stages
*
Chaudhries of Gujrat, they always hated her and were very disturbed about her making deals with Musharraf as it was their end if she became the PM, also not to mention the fact their miseries for the upcoming elections and lack of support they have. They also blame BB and her party for Big Chaudhry Zahoor's death.
*Internal Stake holders:
*
- Musharraf -could be his party because although he is in power some of the other members of his party may have done it as they could be thinking Benazir is more popular and has a higher chance of becoming prime minister than them.They also might be thinking that If Benazir isnt here anymore their party will be the most powerful ruling party...
has anyone else noticed or is it just me that thinks Pervaiz Elahi showed more hatred to ppp than the others.He was also trying very way possible to win.I think he may have some thing to do with this.
- Chaudries of Gujrat-dont know
- Fanatic mullahs (read Taliban, Al-Qaeeda etc.) it could be them i think because Benazir always spoke against Extremism and they could have done this because they knew if Benazir comes they'll be in risk and will get caught.
- Nawaz Sharif-could be but Nawaz doesnt benefit an awful lot because ppp was powerful and still is, infact even more.
- MQM-not that likely...Altaf never really wanted to stand for prime minister.
- Other PPP fractions (Sherpao, Ginwa Bhutto etc.)dont know
- Internal PPP leaders dont know
...
...
**External Stake holders:
**- USA / Israel-they'll benefit because as from the riots and everything theres been a huge loss,in terms of money and all that..So it could be them to make it easier to take over once theres a chaos
- India
- Afghanistan
- Russia
- China
- Iran
....
....
Chaudhries of Gujrat, they always hated her and were very disturbed about her making deals with Musharraf as it was their end if she became the PM, also not to mention the fact their miseries for the upcoming elections and lack of support they have. They also blame BB and her party for Big Chaudhry Zahoor's death.
Internal Stake holders:
**
- Musharraf -could be his party because although he is in power some of the other members of his party may have done it as they could be thinking Benazir is more popular and has a higher chance of becoming prime minister than them.They also might be thinking that If Benazir isnt here anymore their party will be the most powerful ruling party...
has anyone else noticed or is it just me that thinks **Pervaiz Elahi showed more hatred to ppp than the others.He was also trying very way possible to win.I think he may have some thing to do with this.
So that gives us another objective : - Personal Vendetta (stake holders: again quite a few here)
Could be Amin Faheem, maybe he wanted to be the new leader of PPP. He was in the car and could have told BB to stand up at the right time and pushed her back as she was ducking.
Could be Amin Faheem, maybe he wanted to be the new leader of PPP. He was in the car and could have told BB to stand up at the right time and pushed her back as she was ducking.
Or it could have been Batman! Sheesh, what a silly theory!
guys as I said before, we can discuss later who might have actually done it. At the moment we are just collecting the possible stake holders and the objectives.
@Khekeshan: Amin Fahim as a leader of PPP is already on the list of stake holders.
Musharraf is the least likely beneficiary. The fall out of all this CAN result in his departure and resignation and after all what he has done to stick to power, this step he was never gonna take.
Taleban/AQ: Top beneficiaries. That does give them enough to kill a 'secular' 'female' who ruled an islamic country and who threatened to put an end to them by any means. plus this also gives the bombers the hidden satisfaction of going straight to heaven.
Chauhdris: They dont have the balls or resources to go that far. Heck, even Nawaz had more to gain then these no-name losers from gujrat.