Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Sunni and Shia volunteers will go for jihad in Iraq against each other.
.
some people from Pakistan may go there but I don't think anyone in that region care about Pakistan as a country. All religious hocus pocus aside, they don't care much for the poor cousins.
Some loonies in various pockets of Pakistan (you know which ones I am talking abt) will however jump up and down, burn some rubber and get some horrible photographs taken for publication and 'image building' in newsweek and time. that news item will start with "the US ally and front line state in the war on terror, Pakistan, erupted into ...bla bla'
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Sunni and Shia volunteers will go for jihad in Iraq against each other.
I disagree...if the Iranian Revolution did pit Sunni against Shia on a broad scale during the 1980's, then this wont either. You may see an increase in violence among the fringe groups...but nothing major.
In any case, Muslims who neither consider themselves Salafists (capital-s, not small s) or pro-Iranian Shia could care less, and are too busy shaking their head in disbelief at how gullible the Iraqis are for going after each other instead of oh...I don't know...the bloody INVADERS amongst their midst...
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
yes
er..no, not to the extent of desiring civil war, atleast to people familiar with the nature of Iran’s earlier involvement and the current situation in iraq. the original question remains therefore, cause even given Iran’s earlier involvment, their political interests lie in a civil war not happening and the present govt remaining stable.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
In any case, Muslims who neither consider themselves Salafists (capital-s, not small s) or pro-Iranian Shia could care less, and are too busy shaking their head in disbelief at how gullible the Iraqis are for going after each other instead of oh...I don't know...the bloody INVADERS amongst their midst...
During the Iranian Revolution, our country was not as Islamic as it is today.
Zia was implementing his Islamic Reforms and foreign Sunni Extremist Fighters hadn't set up schools in our country which preach hate towards anyone who is not a Sunni Muslim.
Now we have a war in Afghanistan, global war on Terrorism, which has enraged the Islamic World and the current war in Iraq is ratcheting up tensions even more.
Just like the Spanish Civil war in the 1930's drew in Nazi Germany and USSR to support opposing sides and foreign fighters from the West to fight against or for socialism.
So will this civil war in Iraq draw in volunteers from across the world.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
So if its not spread then its definitely protection of shiaism in pakistan. Just like how Saudies look out for their brand so do the Iranians. I remember back when Taliban movement was in full swing in Afghanistan in 90s, the relations between Pak and Iran were prolly at their lowest point and Iran had also amassed its forces along both borders.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
The Iraqis themselves are siding firmly with Iran - even the previously boot-licking Kurdish leadership is taking Iran’s side on this US interference in Iraq’s domestic affairs. The Kurdish statement once more points out that it is the USA that is undermining peace in Iraq.
Good to see some Muslim brotherhood going on, even under the boot of the US occupation.
Iraqi Kurds, among America’s staunchest supporters, condemned the detention Thursday of six Iranian diplomats during a raid by U.S. forces on an Iranian consulate in the Kurdish city of Irbil.
The Kurdish president and regional government released a statement calling for the release of the six detained during the early-morning raid and firefight. One of the diplomats later was freed, the U.S. military said.
“The U.S. action does not conform to the policy of attempting to spread security and stability throughout all of Iraq,” the statement said, adding that the raid was conducted without local approval.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
although a proxy war in Iraq may keep US occupied with Iraq and not have the support at home to do something against Iran, be spread to thin to try and do anything, and not have much support n global community to do anything.
Stability in the region right now is actually not in Iran’s interests.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
I agree that is one of the main reason.
And there you have it in a nutshell. Thank you very much.
Irans motive in afghanistan/Pakistan was never to root out sunnis by creating a sectarian war, (that was sipahe sahaba's goals against shias btw) it was an overall a defensive move in response to the reguar shia killings, to protect the shia minority and also to represent them to the marjae based mainly in iran, iraq.
The need or motive for that is not at all present in iraq as shias are for the first times in decades in position of power (as limited and controlled as it may be) and hence any sectarian violence or civil war will not only undermine the shia gov and thier leadership, but also damage Iran's close relationship with the government.
Something Iran cannot afford or is willing to do as ravage said, it is not in their interests to encourage a civil war as they have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
The only nation to gain anything from accusing Iran is America. They're very uncomfortable with the growing ties b/w the two neighbours and hence are trying to throw the spanners in the work to stop that. Not a clever thing to do if you're in an already precarious situation where you're not really wanted either... the most likely scenario is that it will only unite the two nations even more...which works well for most of us, so its all good. :-)
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
thats a valid answer.
but if that is the case then wouldnt you see more bombings in sunni neighbourhoods? shia sourced violence like in Pakistan has once again been reactionary and after 1 or 2 years of unidirectional violence on shias and generally non-bombing type violence (bombing is more visible and disruptive and causes more havoc) but more or less badly targeted targeted killings. Unless the suggestion is that iran is funding the sunni groups to kill shias, its hard to explain why for that period iran didnt instigate the infighting, and when it did they did it in that limited way. It would presumably always be in their interests to keep US occupied.
Also there has been a bit of shia on shia fighting too, SCIRI’s forces vs Sadr’s Mehdi army. Sadr is known to be anti-Iran. It doesnt make sense that Iran would strengthen Sadr’s political and military might when its own political and military proxy (which is a significant part of the government) suffers from it. Furthermore like I said before any partition of Iraq reduces the Iranian piece of the pie, so presently their interests lie in a unified iraq with a proxy shia group like SCIRI governing.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
err because that was my original question that you were attempting to answer?
Although you redirected it to the motives in afghanistan and pakistan, the comparison was still with the situation and motives in iraq.
Please check back to post 14 and 16, the question was aimed at those who believe Iran is involved in stirring sectarian violence, and im not of them, hence i didnt see fit jump in to and give my reasonings before you guys gave yours. :halo:
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Zia was implementing his Islamic Reforms and foreign Sunni Extremist Fighters hadn't set up schools in our country which preach hate towards anyone who is not a Sunni Muslim.
As I said, their influence to date, and the scope of the sectarian killings, as been akin to LA gang violence. At best.
The Iranian revolution had 20 years to export itself, but has never won mindshare among the Shias of Pakistan. Ditto for the Arab-Salafist import.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Ma Mooli sang
**err because that was my original question that you were attempting to answer?
Although you redirected it to the motives in afghanistan and pakistan, the comparison was still with the situation and motives in iraq. **
No, your point was that Iran could not be possibly behind it and that they would not have any motives to do that.
My point is that iran in looking out for its own interests, ideological or otherwise, is notorious for interfering in sectarian relations and is part and parcel of sectarian friction in these countries. We looked at Pakistan and Afghanistan just now, please study Lebanon as well.
so it is not far fetched that Iran would actively engage in Iraq to protect its interests, and the easiest card to play is sectarian card..and the insurgency. It allows iran a longer leash..
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
O peoplon its all about economic benefits and share in power. You destabilize countries around and the you beomce the regional power. That attracts attention from investors, not matter of what type they are. If you cannot destroy a country atleast having or securing relations in policy making spots can gear some favoritism towards your country when it comes to trade pacts or other agreements. The means of achieving these goals vary and Iran has used sectarian violence from time to time to damage the economy or progress of its neighboring countries. Its that simple from a 50000 foot level.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
**err because that was my original question that you were attempting to answer?
Although you redirected it to the motives in afghanistan and pakistan, the comparison was still with the situation and motives in iraq. **
No, your point was that Iran could not be possibly behind it and that they would not have any motives to do that.
I had a question that you attempted to answer but got lost somewhere in between, here it is again i quote:
[quote]
A straight forward question to the gullible folks who believe iran is responsible for the sectarian violence,** what would thier motive be to do so?**
[/quote]
After volunteering to answer the q, half way through you go on to ask...
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Throughout the whole two pages of discussion mr. fraudia, your main argument has been 'they were involved in other countries hence they must be involved in iraq aswell.' Im sorry but if thats the logic you're following then you hardly have any ground to stand on. The argument doesnt really hold any water, in that it woud never stand up in court, but if thats all you have to go on, then i guess...i'll have to leave it be. :)
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Ma Mooli - sometimes the obvious stares at you but deductive reasining may say it isn't there...
look at your own sequence "you hardly have any grounds to stand on ...because your arguement doesn't hold water ...because it would never stand up in a court of law..."...isn't that simply stating the same proposition 3 different ways rather than proving any cause effect?
Given Ahmedinejad and ayatollah disposition to US it is almost impossible that Iran is not interfering
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
So do rioters and murderers after a natural disaster get the same no-fault free pass from you? What about a withdrawing army that murders and rapes hundreds of thousands on their way out? Do they get a free pass because they feel like “the other guy strarted it” or some other ridiculous excuse? Why would killing and flaming sectarian violence get a free pass just because conditions exist for them to do it?
And Iraqis themselves and the government they elected share some responsibility because they aren’t trying very hard to do anything about it.
Re: Americans storm Iranian Consulate; 5 hostages being held
Americans will be horrified of killing 600k people anywhere - I also know an overwhelming majority will easily give up on oil if they realize that's what it would take to get cheap gasolene.
Americans just don't know/think that 600k have been killed. Only the 3K marine loss is visible.
I myself don't know if that is any where near that range - To me 5000 is bad enough to not want any part of it.
But as to your conclusion that America is responsible for whatever chaos is vested in Iraq, I would partially agree. Yes Americans have the responsibility to law & order since they disbanded the governance and military/police as part of their strategy.
But I think there are 2 other big stakeholders to blame too. What about the surrounding 'brotherhood' of nations. Have they lifted a finger to help? Yet we don't stop hearing of 'the middle east peace'. You think regional peace will just be gifted by outsiders?
And then what about the Iraqis themselves? How much time do they need to come to senses that their religions factions are ensuring there is no peace?
My point, and please don't think I am saying Americans did all right, is that Americans in general have their hearts in the right place but W has followed strategies that backfired