Afghan War End Game

Ali_Syed · May 12, 2012, 8:28am

I want to discuss the relationship of Pakistan and Afghanistan with reference to the Afghan end game.

Before doing that lets go a few decades back to the theater of war between South and North Vietnam and the role of Cambodia during the war. There are a lot of similarities between the two issues.

1959 Vietnam war began, between Western supported South Vietnam and Communist North. The communist rebels from the North took refuge in the jungles of South Vietnam to fight foreign occupation. The US involvement in the conflict escalated during the early 1960’s. Cambodia led by Prince Sihanouk tried to remain neutral during the war to avoid larger regional conflict. The Americans started believing that Cambodia is supporting the rebels in Vietnam, although the Cambodians had allowed the Americans to kill the rouge elements (as per the Americans) in the border areas (of Cambodia and Vietnam) using B-52 aircrafts (napalm and cluster bombs). The Americans killed hundreds of thousands of people in Cambodia alone.

In 1970, American supported General Lon Nol deposed Prince Sihanouk who then allied himself with Khmer Rouge (which was quite small then). Due to heavy American bombardment and US supported puppet ruling Cambodia, Khmer Rouge found new recruits. In early 1970s Vietnamese and US forces invaded Eastern parts of Cambodia. By 1972 the Khmer Rouge comprised of 50000 people many of them had joined to take revenge from Americans. In 1973 the Americans vacated Vietnam and the Vietnamese withdrew from Cambodia. With the result Khmer Rouge came into power in Cambodia and started genocide of their people. With the result in 1978 Vietnam attacked Cambodia and installed a puppet regime there, in 1988 Vietnamese started withdrawing their troops and a cease fire was declared in 1991.

The Cambodians remained as neutral as they could but the Americans alleged that they are playing a double game, they bombed the border areas (since they believed that communists had set up sanctuaries there), with the result Khmer Rouge was formed and later what they did with their people is also horrid. There are stark similarities between the conflict of Vietnam and Cambodia and the one that we have now (Afghanistan and Pakistan).

Before 911 and the resultant invasion of Afghanistan we had not heard about taleban in Pakistan. American attacks in Afghanistan caused some rogue elements to flee to Pakistan, and then following US orders without proper planning TTP came into existence. American drone attacks and Pakistani operations continued to provide recruits for TTP, even after losing more than 35000 people still we have to hear the words that Pakistan is not collaborating and that there are sanctuaries on our side of the border.

On the other side almost all of Eastern Afghanistan including Paktia, Paktika, Nuristan etc have been handed over to Taleban. The Americans want to bring back a bulk of their forces from Afghanistan. As per the recent US-Afghan strategic pact some US forces will stay in Afghanistan post 2014. In the presence of Americans no one can force the taleban (including Pakistan) to negotiate with them. On the other hand drone strikes are continuing disregarding the pleas from government, military and even parliamentary resolutions which has pushed a large population of the country away.

US is counting on Pakistan to deliver on a few things to show to their public that they have won the war:

**1) Pakistani operation in NWA (the Do more Mantra):-
**
While news are coming out from Afghanistan regarding the US patching up with the taleban, and tolerating sanctuaries in Eastern Afghanistan. How can the Americans expect to confront taleban when they themselves are negotiating with them. As we have to stay in the region, tomorrow when the Americans will leave it would be us who would have to bear the brunt of the US policies.

**2) Pakistani help in bringing the taleban to the negotiating table:-
**
With the news of US-Afghan strategic pact coming out, I dont see Pakistan will be able to convince the taleban to come to the negotiating table with the occupying forces still in Afghanistan.

**3) Open the NATO supplies:-
**
Maybe this is the easiest one amongst the three, but by aggressive posturing it will not be able for the government to open them as easily as in the past. If they are opened, it could have negative repercussions for us domestically especially with the drone strikes continuing but that’s not of American concern.

Considering all this what realistic options have we got now for US-Pakistan relationship with regards to the Afghan end game?

The Constraints that we have is that any instability, civil war and division of Afghanistan on ethnic lines is not in our interest.

Ali_Syed · May 12, 2012, 2:22pm

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

The only way out of this issue is that first of all the policy makers will have to abandon any dreams of strategic depth if that still exists, they should also acknowledge that any instability in Afghanistan will have negative repercussions for the country. The time has come for Pakistan to discuss its limitations with US, as well as take the nation into confidence about the important events that are shaping the neighbourhood.

The relationship between America and Pakistan should be realistic and not based upon false notion of 'strategic allies'. The issue of drone attacks needs to be sorted out (the government needs to convince the Americans that the drones have become counter-productive) diplomatically, lastly Pakistan should try to bring the taleban on the negotiation table with the Afghan government. Strong diplomacy is required to bridge the differences between US, Afghanistan and Taleban and then improvement in relationship of Pakistan with all regional countries.

Amal · May 13, 2012, 1:24am

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

While Pakistan still does not seem to be finding it easy to do away with the 'strategic depth' philosophy, ground realities seem to have changed inconspicuously as Pakistan has actually itself become 'strategic depth' for Taliban.

There are two impressions (they call them facts) that Pakistan has come to be known for: 1) Pakistan's army is runing the Taliban and 2) Pakistan's territory is being used for cross-border attacks. Islamabad needs to assure the world that it has lost all of its leverages over Taliban because of international policies. But if anyone is still serious about bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, then Pakistan be backed fully backed by the international community to bring an end to an 'international misery'. Over a decade has gone into this war along with trillions of dollars and thousands of lives, yet the world remains in the middle of nowhere.

Secondly, Pakistan also needs to show to the entire world that it rules its territory effectively and the writ of the government is working on every inch of the country. Islamabad should tell the world that cross-border infiltrations take place because Afghan borders are not being properly manned by the international forces and thus Pakistan cannot be solely blamed from the open-for-all border.

Amal · May 13, 2012, 1:33am

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

US plans punitive action against Pakistan

WASHINGTON: A far-reaching legislation has been introduced in the US Congress that would deduct $50 million from the aid to Islamabad for every American killed by terrorists operating from the safe havens in Pakistan with the “support” of ISI.

“Pakistan has for decades leveraged radical terrorist groups to carry out attacks in India and Afghanistan,” Congressman Dana Rohrabacher said introducing the ‘Pakistan Terrorism Accountability Act of 2012.’

The legislation would require the Department of Defence to list all Americans killed by terrorist groups operating with impunity inside Pakistan and Afghanistan and supported by elements of the Pakistani government.

For each person killed, $50 million would be subtracted from US foreign assistance to Pakistan – a requested $2.2 billion – and given to the victim’s family.

“For too long America has funded the Pakistani government, giving it free money, while elements of the ISI and Pakistan’s military operate militant groups that are actively murdering Americans. Americans will not accept this,” Rohrabacher, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, said.

“Pakistan helped to create the Taliban and Pakistan’s intelligence service hid Osama Bin Laden from the US for years. Today, one of the most dangerous and sophisticated groups killing American troops in Afghanistan is the Haqqani network, which is closely operated by the Pakistani government,” Rohrabacher said.

The legislation says Pakistan, through ISI, maintains control and influence in Afghanistan through militant groups like the Haqqani network, to secure its strategic position and expand its sphere of influence, not only in Afghanistan, but also in Kashmir and against India.

Asserting that ISI has strong links with the Haqqani network, the legislation said that it shall be the policy of the US to limit the United States’ foreign assistance to Islamabad if Pakistan’s military or intelligence services continue to support or provide assistance to organisations that target American citizens.

“Of the amounts made available for assistance to Pakistan for fiscal year 2013 or any subsequent fiscal year, the President shall withhold $50 million for each United States citizen who is killed as a result of actions of ISI or support provided by the ISI to other organisations or individuals, including the Haqqani Network,” it said.

Press Trust of India

Though I have no clue as to how does the US aid help Pakistan, but I believe that the country is not capable of withstanding any penalty from the US. And if we know Washington well, it's only the begining.

Ali_Syed · May 13, 2012, 1:50am

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

Amal:

While Pakistan still does not seem to be finding it easy to do away with the 'strategic depth' philosophy, ground realities seem to have changed inconspicuously as Pakistan has actually itself become 'strategic depth' for Taliban.

There are two impressions (they call them facts) that Pakistan has come to be known for: 1) Pakistan's army is runing the Taliban and 2) Pakistan's territory is being used for cross-border attacks. Islamabad needs to assure the world that it has lost all of its leverages over Taliban because of international policies. But if anyone is still serious about bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, then Pakistan be backed fully backed by the international community to bring an end to an 'international misery'. Over a decade has gone into this war along with trillions of dollars and thousands of lives, yet the world remains in the middle of nowhere.

Secondly, Pakistan also needs to show to the entire world that it rules its territory effectively and the writ of the government is working on every inch of the country. Islamabad should tell the world that cross-border infiltrations take place because Afghan borders are not being properly manned by the international forces and thus Pakistan cannot be solely blamed from the open-for-all border.

I agree with you that Pakistan should secure its land from the terrorists but the situation is very complex, like in Cambodia when the Americans bombed the border areas the militants moved inwards. The bombing raids plus a pliant regime in the country gave rise to Khmer Rouge. If we see our condition, sustained operations plus American drone strikes have produced some of these elements (TTP). If this issue could have been solved militarily NATO/ISAF would have done that by now. The thing is that for the failure in Vietnam, Cambodia was made a scapegoat, now the failure in Afghanistan is being labelled on Pakistan. Its history repeating itself. Thats why I believe very active diplomacy is needed to tell the world about Pakistan's sacrifices so far and how we can help the international community in resolving the issue (if they can) and what are our constraints.

Ali_Syed · May 13, 2012, 1:55am

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

The US is sounding as if Alqaeda and Taleban are only Pakistan's issue, while they are spending trillions of dollars in this region, large areas of Mali, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen have fallen to Alqaeda and other militant groups. Maybe Africa and Yemen are much more dangerous in the world now, the Americans should go and spend some of their energies there too.

I knew this was bound to happen in the end, its the governments fault who tried to portray the relation with US as a strategic relationship if they had been realistic it would have been good for us as well as Americans.

Ali_Syed · May 13, 2012, 2:07am

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

I think by the self help Kerry is talking about in case Pakistan does not take action against ‘terrorist sanctuaries’ they will take action themselves, they have done this in Cambodia as well at the fag end of the war.

For some time I believe that the Americans wants Pakistan to attack all of the taleban groups as this will have the following benefits for them:

Taleban will forget Afghanistan and all of them will turn their guns towards Pakistan
Americans can show to their people and the world that they have won in Afghanistan
Pakistan will become irrelevant in the Afghan equation

Resultantly Pakistan could destablize to an extent that Americans will have to help an “ally in distress”, end of war in Afghanistan and beginning of a new in Pakistan. Pakistan’s nukes any one??

**WASHINGTON - US Senator John Kerry, a long-time pro-Pakistan voice on the Capitol Hill, has joined the Obama administration in warning Pakistan over alleged sanctuary for Afghan militants, raising prospects of American recourse to “self-help” options.
**
The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee raised the question of the “continued danger of a sanctuary war being prosecuted against the forces” in Afghanistan at a hearing on upcoming NATO summit in Chicago.

“I am a veteran of a sanctuary war and I know how insidious it can be, and I personally think that it is unacceptable to have a zone of immunity for acts of war against armed forces and against the collective community that is trying accomplish what it is trying to accomplish,” the Democratic senator said in a statement.

**“That means Pakistan has to become more assertive and more cooperative, and we may have to resort to other kinds of self-help depending on what they decide to do,” the influential lawmaker added.
**
A House of Representatives panel has already moved a resolution to condition economic and military assistance for Pakistan with reopening of supply lines and its performance in support of American efforts in a number of counterterrorism areas in Afghanistan.

**Pakistan continues to be a target of criticism and mounting pressure by Congressional leaders as Washington races against time to show some degree of progress towards stability in Afghanistan at the Chicago Summit later this month.

**Pakistan has to cooperate more, says Kerry | DAWN.COM

Amal · May 13, 2012, 2:10am

re: Pak US relationship - Afghan War End Game

While we have been doing patheticaly bad in almost all walks of life, diplomacy seems to be the top jewel in our crown of shame. We have always been bad sellers and I don’t know what kind of career diplomats we have been producing. There is a saying in Urdu that a kid does not get milk until it cries, we do not know how to cry.

India did a splendid job by moulding the world view into its own by continuously hammering that Pakistan was waging a proxy war in Kashmir. I do not get to listen to any of my diplomats that international policies are failing and Pakistan could lead the world into finding a peaceful solution to the issue. We need to cry at the top of our voice or we will be run over by circumstances.

Your example of Cambodia as a scapegoat is highly relevant in our context :k:

Ali_Syed · May 13, 2012, 5:34am