Here’s an assesment of the political landscape after elections. PPP-MQM-Mush Vs the Rest. Idea isn’t new but its an interesting read nevertheless:
**A Musharraf-Benazir future? **](The News International: Latest News Breaking, World, Entertainment, Royal News)
By Gibran Peshimam
So here we are. The Shakespearean ‘deed’, as it appears, has been done. Subscribers to the speculations of a PPP-Musharraf ‘deal,’ rife for the best part of the year, but hovering around political circles well before that, have, as of late, been armed with telling evidence. While neither side has come out and said it, (in fact, if anything, they are actually still denying it), based on the compilation and adding up of a few sound bytes here and there, particularly during and after the London APC, one cannot be blamed for discharging a loud ‘A-ha!’ While, it may just be the prevalence of active imaginations with the elections just around the corner, and a product of overanalyzing every major political player’s moves, half the fun in politics is, after all, speculating and, upon being proven right, basking in the glory of that infinitely satisfying ‘I-told-you-so.’
What can we derive from Benazir Bhutto’s no-show in the London APC, her party’s withdrawal from the conference, her comments on foreign news channels, including CNN, the PPP’s issuance of a dissenting note after just the second day’s proceedings in London, their silence on the boycott of MQM or their disagreement with the APC’s adopted policy on Musharraf? The PPP and President Gen Pervez Musharraf have already entered a deal and that’s what I’ve believed for a while now. Except, I don’t quite like the connotation of the word ‘deal’ and instead prefer to call it an ‘understanding’ – which is a word that Benazir Bhutto, I feel, has been using more so than usual lately. The ‘understanding,’ it should be mentioned, is less nefarious than many would care to think. It revolves less around the possibility of rigging come the general elections and more around Musharraf’s belief that the army background aside, the PPP and Benazir are in tune with his agenda, which is not the case with his current PML-Q government.
This was amply on display on numerous occasions. For example, the president would go one way (Women’s Protection Act) and the central leaders of the Q, particularly Chaudhry Shujaat, would go another (i.e. seeking amendments in the original document). In more recent terms, it was also on display in the president’s outright ire at Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa’s burqa brigade juxtaposed with Shujaat sympathetically calling the stick-wielding, black-veil wearing moral police our ‘daughters.’ I mean, even religious parties such as the Jamaat-e-Islami have been less sympathetic relative to Shujaat and his readiness to capitulate to the Lal Masjid administration’s demands. By emphatically finishing off the Lal Masjid’s resistance, sans any negotiations, Musharraf has sent a clear message.
The PPP, on the other hand, knows full well that if Benazir is to return she needs a green signal from Musharraf – but that’s an old and overused analysis. The more important point, politically speaking, is that Benazir would also relish the opportunity to work with a general who is more in tune with her party’s agenda. Previously, she had to work with praetorian conspirator Mirza Aslam Beg during her first stint as PM, and entered her second run at premiership having to deal with what some termed to be a provincialism-tainted feud with the president-COAS partnership of Farooq Leghari and Jehanghir Karamat.
It has stymied any chance of Benazir showing the leadership qualities that many believe she is in possession of because she has been held up by petty control issues rather than more important ones of governance. A prior understanding with a man that holds both those posts, and who is also closer to her ‘liberal’ school of thought, is extremely beneficial to her. Working with Musharraf may just provide her party the opportunity to grasp the position of the main political party of the country, which is something that it hasn’t quite been able to do, despite its unquestionably large grassroots support.
However, where the support for this PPP-Musharraf nexus will come from is the key question. They cannot stand by themselves, that’s for sure. A majority of the Q won’t side with them. Current coalition partners, the PPP Patriots, made up of PPP runaways, will obviously not be acceptable either. MMA and the PPP? Don’t think so. Definitely not the PML-N. Tehreek-e-Insaaf? Still too insignificant (though they may yet have a better showing in the next elections). That leaves us with the MQM.
Regardless of the shaky past between the PPP and MQM, this set-up will suit both well. Remember that it was the MQM’s exit from the first PPP-led coalition in 1990 that shook the foundations of the government, which eventually fell months later. But this situation is different. They have a common, khaki-attired peacekeeper in Pervez Musharraf to assure the continuity of the détente. The MQM has come a long way and is a lot more politically mature and experienced, and a lot less-activist than it was 17 years ago (May 12, regardless of the prevalent belief, was not solely the MQM by any stretch of the imagination). It can also continue its quest to expand its vote base outside Karachi-Hyderabad-Mirpurkhas, and increase its activity in Punjab without hindrance from coalition partners, as is the case currently with the PML-Q, because PPP’s vote bank is more spread across Pakistan than that of the Q’s and will be less affected than the Q by MQM’s venture into a few areas of Punjab.
Moreover, in context of the current scenario the fit is a lot more sustainable. The previous nature of politics, revolving mainly around the political cleavage of ethnicity and provincialism, has been watered down considerably and has been replaced by a new cleavage that is very clearly based on the liberal/secular-conservative/religious ideological divide. The MQM and PPP and Pervez Musharraf are, by and large, all on the same page in terms of liberal/secular policy. In any case, I should also say that a very reliable source mentioned to me that whether or not either party liked it, it was the only option and, ironically, the best one overall.
In the spirit of a shift away from ethnicity-based politics, there will be another player in this equation: the ANP. Though the ANP and MQM are once again at loggerheads in Karachi, the opinion is that a settlement can be reached if the latter is willing to negotiate some incentives in terms of economic respite that will prove beneficial to the large Pakhtoon community of Karachi. The ANP is also relatively secular in terms of party ideology and can help bring in the votes in the NWFP to offset the MMA.
During the final days of the Lal Masjid operation, and right before the PPP’s complete pullout of the APC, Benazir appeared on a couple of shows on foreign television channels, including CNN. What she said captured the ideological divide perfectly. She said that she or her party would, in no way negotiate with terrorists, which is exactly the opposite of what the other parties at the APC were saying, and, as it turns out, exactly what Musharraf ended up doing a day later with Lal Masjid.
She also didn’t rubbish an understanding with Musharraf the way she had in the past. Essentially, the PPP, right before the elections, has completely broken itself away from the opposition and tacitly joined itself to its ideological equal, Musharraf, which, in the words of Humphrey Bogart’s character Rick in Casablanca, could just be the, “beginning of a beautiful friendship.”
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and get a hint from the edited msg 