Re: Zardari’s Woes: Pakistan’s Dismal Economy, an Angry Army
Good analysis Ali.. However I don’t agree with you that PPP will emerge as the largest party. PPP at the moment is being considered anti Punjab by the masses here (Although personally I don’t think that’s true.. they are simply incompetent/corrupt) due to 14-20 hour load shedding here. The price of diesel/fertilizer is not helping PPP cause with rural/agriculture base. The fate of PPP in Punjab this time will be worse than 1998 election. Even some strong constituency candidates who won the election from PPP platform in Punjab last time.. are looking for an opportunity to ditch the party and look for some other ticket. I am saying this because I am in touch with some electoral regular players who consider the next election in Punjab is going to be between PMLN and PTI. Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan have realized this fact and are not firing their ammunition on PPP.. they have started to take strong positions against each other. At the moment PMLN in Punjab has an advantage over PTI in electoral politics.. but who knows how the things shape up in next few months. With media on their side PTI can make some serious dent on PMLN if they are able to keep up the momentum. PTI has to be cautious from the hawks who want to resist “electables” joining the party by chanting “lota” slogans. PTI must continue with their pragmatic approach.. SMQ has to play a vital role to keep the sense prevailing in the party.
As far as KP is concerned PTI is very well placed there. They may form the next provincial government there and win a large number of NA seats from KP. Both JUI F and ANP are bound to lose a lot in KP.
I don’t know much about the electoral politics in Sind. I think PPP still appeals to the rural Sind population on ethnic grounds. They will comfortably win most of the seats from rural Sind but some strong individuals may cause some upsets.
Karachi can be a little different this time. MQM can lose 3-4 seats because mohajir vote is a bit divided this time in some affluent areas. If bogus votes are eliminated it will become a little challenging for MQM who rely mostly on mohajir votes who constitute 48% of the city population. PTI will focus on 2-3 constituencies specially in the parts of the city where there is a significant Pushtun population.. and they will try to divide the MQM’s mohajir votes. The eventual dream of MQM in Sind is to get the provincial government which is only possible if PPP seats are divided in rural Sind and MQM can find a coalition partner/or enough independent MPAs who can support MQM to form the provincial government.
Nothing will change in Baluchistan. 20 seats will be won by 15 different parties who will join whoever is forming the government.
Interesting times ahead. As I predicted earlier in another thread.. it seems if nothing major happens in next few months.. PML N will form the next federal government.. and PTI will form a strong opposition. PPP with much lesser numbers will probably join the coalition to evade the corruption investigations from their present misrule. PML N also will probably prefer PPP as their coalition partner compared to MQM.
I predict the power dynamics are going to change a lot in next election. Presently the only party with support base all over the country is PTI. All other parties including PPP have become regional parties. This fact will eventually be accepted by all the players in power politics.. and we will see even less powers for the center and provinces becoming more autonomous. Not exactly a good direction for the country as we need a strong federal govt. who take up the construction of dams, a logical unified power policy, build infra structure like railways/road for better connectivity, unified monetary policies for economic development.. and take harsh decisions for over all good of the country rather than taking narrow regional approach.