Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

No one should be surprised…except maybe PPP/BB supporters.

Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

Tariq Butt
Wednesday, September 21, 2011

ISLAMABAD: While Pervez Musharraf has been formally named by the government in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination case and plans to return to Pakistan to start his politics, all top civilian and military players — Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, Asif Ali Zardari and General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani — committed to the US in 2008 to provide him immunity when Washington pushed them hard.

Zardari cited a British anecdote about the Spanish empire and said “tell the most powerful man in the world that there is no way that I would go back on what I have said,” the March 23, 2008 US Embassy Islamabad cable written by Ambassador Anne W Patterson and released by WikiLeaks said covering her separate meetings with Zardari (Aug 23), Gilani (Aug 21) and Kayani (Aug 20) after Musharraf’s resignation and before Zardari’s election as president.

Zardari noted that he already had firmly committed to the US, the UK, and Kayani that indemnity for Musharraf would be forthcoming.

The ambassador wrote that due to the cooperation of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Zardari is “walking tall these days, hopefully not too tall to forget his promise to Kayani and to us on an immunity deal.”

The cable said that ambassador stressed that only the promise of indemnity had persuaded Musharraf to step down as president. “We believed, as we had often said, that Musharraf should have a dignified retirement and not be hounded out of the country.

It said that in separate meetings with Zardari, Gilani and Kayani, ambassador pressed for quick action on immunity for Musharraf. Zardari and Gilani said flatly that they were committed to providing immunity, but not until after the presidential election. “Pushing immunity now, they believed, could jeopardize Zardari’s candidacy. Kayani expressed concern that if immunity becomes tied up with the ongoing debate over the judges’ future, it may never happen. Zardari plans to continue to slow roll action on the judges’ restoration but remains confident that Nawaz Sharif will not walk out of the coalition. Nawaz’s deadlines for action on the judges continue to pass unfulfilled,” the cable said adding that the MQM decision to back Zardari for president has strengthened his hand against Nawaz Sharif, who is left with the option of walking out of the coalition but having little prospect of forcing a new general election in the short term.

Ambassador urged Zardari to do it (immunity) quickly. Zardari said flatly that to do it before he was elected president would lose him votes, but he would do both the legislation and a presidential pardon as soon as he was elected.

According to the cable, Kayani said he took Zardari’s commitments to Musharraf as the most important argument in persuading him to resign. Zardari made very specific commitments to Kayani. Now, for Zardari to delay it makes the army chief look bad within his own institution “and I have to bring the army along with me.”

Kayani also noted that the delay does nothing for Zardari’s reputation for trustworthiness. If this issue gets conflated with the judges and with Zardari’s own desires to be president, it will become too complicated to pass, Kayani said.

Gilani said the PPP was going to provide immunity for Musharraf, but timing was important. They were afraid that putting forward immunity legislation would lose them votes for Zardari’s presidential campaign. Ambassador pressed on this issue, saying that Musharraf would never have agreed to resign without the promise of immunity. Gilani assured ambassador that he and the party did not want vengeance. Regarding immunity, Gilani said, “Many will say that we have done a deal with America, but still I understand that we have to do it.”

Zardari revealed that he also had leverage over Shahbaz Sharif, who through paperwork snafus, had been technically elected illegally for a third term as chief minister. This, too, would have to be resolved in parliament, Zardari said. “So I can give them something they want,” noted Zardari, “that’s what politics is all about.”

After an August 20 meeting with visiting US official Dell Dailey, Kayani asked ambassador to stay behind and discuss his concerns that Zardari was delaying Musharraf’s immunity bill.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

I think situation has changed now. I don't think US gives two hoots whether Musharaf gets immunity or not. They have no use for him now as they realized he has lost whatever support he had among the people.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

^ I don't think it was about support before either. In fact, musharraf would not even think of dabbling in politics when he resigned unlike now.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

NRO... tit-for-tat.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

In the beginning he had the public support. In fact, it would be very difficult for any dictator to take over a vibrant country like Pakistan without passive support of public (i.e. public opinion). He was supported by majority despite his unwise decisions like Kargil when political class working over-time for peace with "Bus rides".

Even today there are reports attributed to Gen. Kayni saying "it is not the time for take over". Army knows well it does not have the public support and in fact, for the first time Pak army on the defensive, after OBL and Karachi air force base attack.

As time passes, the figures of recent history are either most hated or most loved. In Musharaf case, it looks like the earlier, as people see the "support for US after 9-11" as the root cause of all of today's problems. Its another story that (the support) could have eliminated all of yesterday's bad choices. Unfortunately, Musharaf choose an approach of having the cake and eat it too.

Another reason why I say, US is not keen on Mushraff anymore is that, it has realized (very late) that Pakistan has not really changed it's methods of achieving thier strategic goal in Afganistan and it's been the case right the start. They thought there were weaning Pakistan away slowly and steadly, but alas it's not the case. Musharaf has been playing them all along.

It's apparant that due to our domestic financial situation US can't stay engaged in Afghanistan for a long time. Therefore, there is a renewed urgency to take Pakistan out of Afghan equation. Last thing US wants is Afghanistan having client state of Pakistan - an ally of China, when US is not around.

No country can have a client state in the old fashioned way. Its mutual benefit that drives the relationship these days. It can only be achieved through economic co-operation and China has understood that very much. Its relationship with many of the African countries are based on that principle.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

There is an important reason why US would still care for Musharaf's safety - it has a history of supporting & shoring up dictators for what they perceive to be strategic causes. Future dictators will be less willing to cooperate in those ventures if they do not think USA will ensure their safety

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

I am not talking about 1999, but comparing his resigning in 2008 and 2009 to the political space he has found in 2011.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

I dont want him to come back to Pakistan!! :(

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

I think he has less of a public support in 2011 compared 2008/09. In fact, Musharaf must have expected things to get worse when he left and people would want him back. Unfortunately, for him people are now blaming him for the mess, they blame his decision to join US war-on-terror. Hence, he is of no use to US.

My opinion, people who hate him now are doing so for the wrong reasons. Todays problems are not because he took the country to side with US, but he was less than honest in his participation in the war-on-terror - in what he assumed to be of strategic importance to Pakistan.

Today the problems are insurmountable becasue 1) the Jihadi elements have entrenched themselves in Pakistan, developing their own eco system 2) Pro-longed war has created fatigue of war among common population 3) Army or at least elements of it are still not willing to participate whole heartedly and 4) to make matters worst civilian government does not have the will power to be the masters of the armed forces. (It's almost like they are apologitic about army having to report to them - after OBL and Karachi air base attack, they had perfect opportunity to assert themselves - they should have accepted Pasha's resignation).

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

War in afghanistan was lost that day that two dollar ho Betray-us took over. I mean what kind of strategy is that that lets just redeploy to big cities, as Soviets conquered afghanistan in less time than it took the US without any real opposition and Soviets or najibullah afterwards never lost a city to the mujahideen. I think there is a good article that i have to search that basically said that US needs a dynamic relationship with Pakistan (better trade policy for one) instead of paying Pakistan to do America's dirty work. I think the gora was right, since America has withdrawn from the afghan border and now wants Pakistan to attack every tom, dick and harry so that not only haqqani attacks the troops at full strength, but also militants from afghanistan flock to fight the pakistani army while americans twiddle thumbs.

I think the pakistani army is to blame for getting a Sons of Iraq awakening deal, where Betray-us gave $300 per sunni soldier for them to serve as shields for the americans. It might have been a "brilliant strategy" in Iraq, though not really but politics is politics ;), but the taliban come from a sizable majority group in afghanistan unlike the sunni minority in iraq. Sunnis were afraid of being killed off by the shiites, hence their deal with america, but what is the fear of taliban? Taliban just has to wait them out and then fight the NA in afghanistan, where Pakistan would sooner than later support the taliban just because if india, iran etc were funding NA.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf


He MUST come back to Pakistan, justice must be served.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

Yup. He should be hanged for treason.

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

I don’t think sunnis supported the US in Iraq out of fear of shia. Actually it was the hatred of al-Qaeda and affiliates. Iraqi sunnis are pretty secular and not extremist at all. They initially supported Qaeda because they of America. But when Qaeda started imposing their extremist Talibanic ideology over common people then they revolted against them. They realized that Qaeda is a bigger threat for them than America. Hence Sunni Awakening groups.

Similar thing happened in FATA and Swat in Pakistan. People there initially supported extremists due to US. But when Talibanic extremists started showing their true colors then they realized how barbaric and un Islamic these people are. Hence the creation of lashkars.

And the same thing happened in Kashmir. There also the population first approved the “mujahideen” who were being trained and sent by pro-fasad ISI of that time. But then quickly Kashmiris realized what kind of monster they were. Thus they stopped supporting them. (This actually hurt Pakistan big time).

Extremism is its own biggest enemy.


Regarding reasons of Sunni Awakening in Iraq, here is an article confirming that sunnis turned up against Qaeda due to its extremism. They didn’t do it out of fear of shia.

http://legacy.signonsandiego.com/news/world/iraq/20070325-1237-fightingbackinanbar.html
RAMADI, Iraq – Not long ago it would have been unthinkable: a Sunni sheik allying himself publicly with American forces in a xenophobic city at the epicenter of Iraq’s Sunni insurgency…The 36-year-old sheik is leading a growing movement of Sunni tribesmen who have turned against al-Qaeda-linked insurgents in Anbar province.

Al-Rishawi, whose father and three brothers were killed by al-Qaeda assassins, said insurgents were “killing innocent people, anyone suspected of opposing them. They brought us nothing but destruction and we finally said, enough is enough.”

Re: Zardari, Gilani, Kayani promised immunity to Musharraf

[quote]
And the same thing happened in Kashmir. There also the population first approved the "mujahideen" who were being trained and sent by pro-fasad ISI of that time. But then quickly Kashmiris realized what kind of monster they were. Thus they stopped supporting them. (This actually hurt Pakistan big time).
[/quote]

Well, AQ pissing off the shiites also played its role like bombing imambargahs. The less said about the kashmir the better.