Youth - The key to the next elections

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Youth will be the key in the next elections. Which ever party mobilizes them and convinces them to vote could make all the difference. Register your votes every one and do exercise it where ever you guys deem fit.

Shifting demographics: Youth bulge spills onto electoral rolls – The Express Tribune

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**ISLAMABAD: **Months of campaigning by political parties and independent groups, asking the youth to register their votes for the upcoming elections, appears to have been a step in the right direction.

**For the first time, Pakistan’s much-touted ‘youth bulge’ has manifested itself on the country’s electoral rolls. According to data released by the Election Commission of Pakistan on Saturday, almost half the registered voters, or 47.5% of 84.3 million, are under the age of 35.
**
Earlier estimates had placed the percentage of youth amongst registered voters at around 35%.

The percentage, however, is more significant when one considers that the total turnout in previous elections varied between 32 and 36 per cent. The millions of youth who have registered their vote for the first time, therefore, are likely to play a significant role in the overall results of the next elections.

The push by most mainstream parties to engage and invest more in campaigns and politicking on the youth-heavy social media seems to not be without reason.

**Age-wise break up
**
An age-wise break up of the 2012 electoral rolls shows there are now 16.2 million registered voters between the age of 18 and 25 years. Of them, some 1.5 million turned 18 between January and June this year.

According to the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), on average, 12,000 to 15,000 new computerised national identity cards (CNIC) are issued daily, majority of them to those who have turned 18 recently. The largest chunk of registered voters, 23.8 million, however, lies in the 26 to 35 year age bracket followed by 17 million voters between the age of 36 and 45. Almost 12 million voters lie in the 46 to 55 year age bracket, 8.4 million between the age of 56 and 65 while another 6.7 million are over the age of 65.

**Deceased, missing
**
According to NADRA officials, a total of 92 million CNICs have been issued so far, however the number of registered voters stands at 84.3 million. Those who have not been included were either deceased, or those belonging to the Azad Jammu Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, said Chairman NADRA.

However, since NADRA has no mechanism to know the exact number of deceased people, some political parties accuse the authority of keeping millions of deceased people in the voter lists.

A ruling Pakistan Peoples Party lawmaker, Sughra Imran, had claimed in the Senate that 15 million votes of deceased persons have been included in the new list, but has been unable to substantiate her claim so far.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 5[SUP]th[/SUP], 2012.

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Re: Youth - The key to the next elections

now… how many laptops would be needed here? :halo:

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Re: Youth - The key to the next elections

^ :D

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Re: Youth - The key to the next elections

The young voter – The Express Tribune

The young voter

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The writer is professor of political science at LUMS

It is not possible to make exact predictions about the voting behaviour of citizens according to class, gender, race, ethnicity, age or on the grounds of their locations. However, these are the very subjects of interest among elections experts around the world. True, it is possible to sketch some clear patterns of voting behaviour if some organisations establish data bank voter-exit surveys registering their profiles and asking questions about which candidate or party they voted for. By accumulating information over decades, pollsters and electoral analysts have formed patterns. However, these are just patterns with variations depending on economic circumstances, social equilibrium or instability and general stakes of citizens and the credibility of the candidates and parties in the run.
What about the electoral behaviour of Pakistani voters? We know very little. Most of the things that we say about electoral behaviour are based on party positions and the number or percentage of votes the candidates obtained. There is not much for the exit polls except some efforts by Gallup Pakistan. The picture remains murky and may remain so unless our data bank of exit polls improves and Gallup or other organisations develop expertise for the long run.
Voting behaviour —the social, economic, political and personal factors or interests that determine an individual’s choice on the polling day — is an important subject to investigate for parties as well as for analysts. At the moment, we go by caste, creed, tribe, ethnicity and other social solidarity group analysis. The individual is always missing as we make two unfounded and unempirical assumptions about Pakistan. One, Pakistan has not changed or if it has, it is too slow and small to be counted. Second, individuals — no matter where they live, what they do or what social or economic mobility they have achieved — are first and foremost members of a larger social solidarity group. And the influence of those groups weighs heavily on the political choices individual makes.
Pakistan has changed over time and so we must change our lenses when looking at Pakistan. As we prepare for the next general elections, we need to keep in mind some important changes. About half of the voters are new, young voters under the age of 30. We don’t exactly know how they are going to vote but casting them in the old template will be as mistaken a view as believing that they will transform the electoral outcome. We don’t know much except information by neutral surveys from distant lands like the Pew Research Centre that shows the popularity of various leaders; the Kaptan is way ahead of President Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.
How the young voter is going to vote is the worst fear of the PML-N and the PPP, knowing well that their leaders cannot match the popular appeal of Imran Khan. Lacking that personal touch, President Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have groomed themselves as masters of elite-network politics — court electables and you will be fine. One of the most interesting things to watch from now until the conclusion of the next general elections is how the youth factor — which is apparently a PTI strength — will play out against elite-network politics that Imran Khan has also embraced belatedly. The young voter factor may not have uniform effect, though. It may have uneven impact in urban constituencies more than rural ones.
I cannot say if the old social solidarities and voting blocs will remain firm in infirm social and economic conditions and when the ‘mandated’ rulers have much to answer for their performances. Perhaps, more than that, passivity or activism of the youth may determine party fortunes.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 7[SUP]th[/SUP], 2012.

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Re: Youth - The key to the next elections

I am not sure about the validity of these polls or atleast their relevance to electoral victory.

Mind you Qazi Hussein had also banked on youth votes in 90s and he made "Shabab-e-Milli" but after election na shabab rahi na milli.

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Re: Youth - The key to the next elections

There's a lot of difference Between today and 90's, JI did not have this popularity. This time around people are fed up with both leading political parties and Pti has cashed onto that. I can see all around me, my family and friends, things have changed and thats the reason of desperation of pmln.

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Re: Youth - The key to the next elections

well i hope it works this time andi hope IK is in it for the long haul, i am afraid that he may leave politics if he fails next election