World's collapse, India's rise?

Rahul67 · March 21, 2006, 9:05am

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

Have you read book "World is Flat"...
India may not have, though its clearly on the path to move to be a pivotal player in grand scheme of things. There are challenges, but those aren't as big as India overcame in last 50 years...

Navtech · March 21, 2006, 9:45am

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

rahul, seem to be economic analyst....very sensible reply

rvikz · March 21, 2006, 10:55am

Re: World’s collapse, India’s rise?

The world economy will likely be 80% larger in 2020 than it was in 2000, and average income will be 50% higher. While the United States will retain its role as the world’s dominant economy and military power, China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, will see their clout grow substantially, the council predicts.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-01-13-long-view-usat_x.htm

mo293 · March 21, 2006, 12:44pm

Re: World’s collapse, India’s rise?

And yet still an average american will spend more on toilet paper…

vineshvk · March 21, 2006, 2:00pm

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

^they are wasting their money then..no wonder india progress and americans only buy toilet papers..:)

Shak_killS · March 21, 2006, 2:04pm

Re: World’s collapse, India’s rise?

Bro, US is not colapsing, if it will it will make sure everyone go down with it. They will play and stay on Top.

India is on good track, but far behind than China, Japan, or Malaysia

and before claiming a superpower status, out sourcing alone cant make india a superpower. a long way to go for India to surpass China,

one thing I can agree, its a Population Super power already set to cross china.

Lahore_981 · March 21, 2006, 2:09pm

Re: World’s collapse, India’s rise?

^… LOL @ population super power

Khaawb adhoorey sahee
Khwaab sahaarey to hain

Navtech · March 21, 2006, 2:32pm

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

seems americans spend too much time in toilet.

Navtech · March 21, 2006, 2:40pm

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

Wait for a decade or two, my friend. ur population superpower will be popular super power unlike US

Grumpy · March 21, 2006, 3:16pm

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

Rahul India will never get a permanent UNSC seat. It would be impossible.

Secondly 90% of the stuff you mentioned means very little in real economic terms. Can you feed all your people? How diversified are your industries? How long will you maintain that comparative advantage? How will countries react to more global trade talks and the like. That is what matters.

The Sensex hitting 11,000 means jack. Unless you have a completely free market economy (which India does not have) with a large private sector system. Not 70 families owning 70 companies, but share holders and the like, only then does the index rating matter. This is basic economics.

Textiles will not be better off because China will flood the market. The MFA lapsed in 2005 but it was extended to keep China at bay. When China enters the ball game, all textile prices shall depreciate just like they did with commodities.

I don't have time to respond to the rest of the nonsense i read. Toot your own horn if you like. You will just be another 3rd world country like us 50 years down the road.

Rahul67 · March 21, 2006, 5:00pm

Re: World’s collapse, India’s rise?

This is a good reasonable enough reply (atleast no abuses)…
I will agree with some points with you, though I refuse to look into crystal ball saying what will happen in future, Since within last 50 - 60 years we have divided our nation (yours and mine) in three, World has united Germany, USSR is gone, EU came into being and many more… hence no looking into Crystal Ball for me…50 years before that we didn’t have automobile…

Grumpy:

Rahul India will never get a permanent UNSC seat. It would be impossible.
<< See if India or some other countries are strong enough for the seat and that isn’t provided only UN will lose its utility. Remember league of nations. Though yes, this is a tough challenge and may not happen, it will need more economic growth and real politik>>
Secondly 90% of the stuff you mentioned means very little in real economic terms.
<<This is a generic reply so I can’t answer, I see many a points are real economic indicators. GDP growth rate, New employmet opps (I only mentioned IT, same numbers are available for other sectors), Indian companies buying foreign companies, solving energy problem without dependency on oil, >>
Can you feed all your people?
<< Yes, India can, India does have surplus food, it has problem of supply chain breaking down, that it needs to rectify that, if we fail to provide food to people we may prove you right, but if are able to, we may prove you wrong >>
How diversified are your industries?
<<Valid point, though not necessay if you are good in some, Still we are looking at Pharma, Textile, Manufacturing, Food processing, Shipping, hospitality, Retail, beyond IT and the growth rates in all these been good.
How long will you maintain that comparative advantage?
<< If you are talking about IT cost advantage, than yes as we grow we have to go up the value chain and that’s already happening, that’s why chip design center is so important. large Indian IT companies are already spending big buck in product development, and that could be interesting fight to watch.
If you are talking about competitive advantage, that’s an ongoing process with on easy answers>>
<< Just to add, the design centers of GE (one out of four in world), GM, Honeywell, Sony, are in India. This is pure science research not IT. >>
How will countries react to more global trade talks and the like. That is what matters.
<< Reactions been good, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Germany, France, UK, US had trade treaties signed in last six months to a year>>
The Sensex hitting 11,000 means jack. Unless you have a completely free market economy (which India does not have) with a large private sector system.
<< You really know your stuff, In that case China shouldn’t even come in for discussoin, with no currency convertibility. Still Rupee is fully convertible, talk is not about whether India is free but how to make it more free and its opening up more and more with every budget. Private sector is bigger than public sector in all the areas except defence production. Government is constantly selling off more and more equity in Public Sector, though there are pressures from communists remain. Still the process is on. >>
Not 70 families owning 70 companies, but share holders and the like, only then does the index rating matter. This is basic economics.
<< Absolutely right, that’s where share market come into picture. I will try to get statistics, though its no longer the case. Though you seem to have read something about India, since that was the case around 10 years back>>

Textiles will not be better off because China will flood the market. The MFA lapsed in 2005 but it was extended to keep China at bay. When China enters the ball game, all textile prices shall depreciate just like they did with commodities.
<< that’s a possibility, China with its labor for food in rural areas can just overwhelm this market, lets see what happens in long run>>

I don’t have time to respond to the rest of the nonsense i read. Toot your own horn if you like. You will just be another 3rd world country like us 50 years down the road.

<<All I am saying we are seeing more positives in India in last 6-7 years. Yes if India doesn’t take care of challenges, it may still be third world country 50 years frm now, or if we do believe in what many in rest of the world is saying (Not Indians) we can be one of the major economic power… >>

See man, I know we are progressing, I have no illusions that we can derail, though hopefully democratic system which is based on well being of all and participation of all will keep us on track.
Now may be I am spending too much time just trying to state facts… So let me take a break from this thread for good…

vineshvk · March 21, 2006, 5:02pm

Re: World's collapse, India's rise?

who is denying the fact that china has progressed much.. India is a late bloomer.. We would reach there. The difference between china and india is that , china has a authoritive power and can take bold decision..while india cant. if only india had a very strong leadership, and not afraid of taking decision however unpopular it may sound at first, india would grow much faster.
But yes India is progressing and can be felt when u r in India.