Quake unlikely to bridge India, Pakistan on Kashmir
10 Oct 2005 10:21:06 GMT
By Y.P. Rajesh
NEW DELHI, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Pakistan is unlikely to take up India on its offer to help tens of thousands of people hit by the massive weekend earthquake despite a new warmth in ties, officials and analysts say.
The hitch is Kashmir, the divided Himalayan territory claimed in full by the neighbours and now the scene of devastation after an earthquake of 7.6 magnitude.
Accepting Indian help would mean giving Indian troops – experts in disaster relief – access to Pakistani Kashmir, the area worst affected by Saturday’s earthquake.
That would be a public relations disaster for Islamabad as it would show Pakistan as incapable of managing relief in a region which New Delhi continues to claim to be an integral part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, analysts said.
Besides, it would have security implications as Pakistani Kashmir is known to house Islamist guerrillas fighting against New Delhi’s rule in Indian Kashmir.
“Our men and machines are ready to go across and help them,” said a senior Indian defence official. "But I would be majorly surprised if we get a call.
“This is not just any region we are talking about. This is Kashmir, so we can understand their hesitation.”
Kashmir, a breathtakingly scenic region, has been at the heart of India-Pakistan rivalry since the subcontinent gained freedom from British colonial rule in 1947.
Both nations claim the region in full but rule parts of it. They have fought two of their three wars over it and were near the brink of another in 2002.
India blames Pakistan for a 16-year Islamist revolt against New Delhi’s rule in Indian Kashmir in which tens of thousands of people have been killed. Pakistan denies the charge.
Although ties have warmed between the nuclear-armed neighbours since they launched new moves to make peace two years ago, progress over Kashmir has been slow.
BRIDGE TOO FAR?
Hours after the deadly earthquake centred near the India-Pakistan frontier in Kashmir struck, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and offered New Delhi’s sympathies as well as its readiness to help.
He was told Pakistan would get back. Two days on, there still has been no word even though Islamabad has appealed to the international community for assistance.
“At the moment, we are assessing our requirements,” Pakistani Foreign Office spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said when asked if Islamabad was taking up New Delhi’s offer.
“We see that the earthquake has also hit parts of India and IOK (Indian occupied Kashmir). The Indian government is also undertaking rescue operations. If need be, we can help them like they have offered us,” she said.
Analysts said the devastation in the two Kashmirs did not compare. While officials say the death toll may hit 2,000 in Indian Kashmir and the fate of 10,000 more is still unknown, more than 20,000 died in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir.
Besides, India, with the fourth largest military in the world, was well equipped to deal with domestic requirements as well as help neighbours, as it did in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami last year.
More than four years ago, when a devastating earthquake struck the western Indian state of Gujarat, it broke the ice between the bitter foes and launched “earthquake diplomacy”.
Then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who had previously refused to meet Pakistan’s Musharraf, took a telephone call from him and Islamabad sent planes with tents and blankets.
While some Indian and Pakistani analysts expected the latest earthquake to bring peace dividends to south Asia others said the hopes may be misplaced.
“It would have a dramatic effect on the India-Pakistan dialogue if Pakistan accepts India’s offer for help,” C. Uday Bhaskar of New Delhi’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses said. “But the reality is this is highly unlikely because of all the complex elements involved.” (Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider in ISLAMABAD)