Will Musharraf play the “India Card” to gain support? A Kargil like incursion or a support to Khalistan would get all the support from Pakistanis. He could very well start talking about Indian interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs in an effort to stoke nationalistic feeling. ISI is already trying to create trouble in Indian Punjab and Kashmir.
When considering Pakistan, don’t forget about India
By Mathew N. Schmalz
Talk about Indian hegemony always gets some traction in Pakistan, even though most Pakistanis realize that India is not the cause of their recent troubles.
http://www.telegram.com/article/20071113/NEWS/711130362/1020
India has not figured much in recent discussions of Pakistan.
Ever since the emergency rule was declared in Pakistan, news reports have focused on what Gen. Musharaff will do next. While Musharaff has proclaimed his actions necessary to save the country from extremists, it is clear that his real opponent is the independent judiciary and his real goal is to maintain his increasingly tenuous hold on power.
Although the situation in Pakistan most immediately affects its South Asian neighbors, the American press has been rather myopically fixated on implications for the “war on terror.”
When it comes to Pakistan’s neighbor India, coverage of emergency rule has been mingled with reports about the current cricket match between India’s and Pakistan’s national teams. If nothing else, such media attention underscores how much the two nations share in spite of their history of conflict.
Judging by letters published in prominent Indian newspapers, it seems that Indians are most concerned with the plight of ordinary Pakistanis and, while popular opinion is less than sanguine about the possibility of Pakistan becoming a stable democracy, there is hope that emergency rule will only last for a period of weeks. If that happens, cricket again will dominate the agenda and Indian concerns about military rule in Pakistan will abate.
This situation could change rapidly if Musharaff plays one of the few cards he has left in his hand: the India card.
Pakistan has felt increasingly hemmed in by India. On one side, Pakistan no longer exerts the influence it once did on its border with Indian Kashmir — a result of outside pressure applied to the Pakistani military to curtail its support of Kashmiri militants agitating for independence from India. On the other side, Pakistan has seen Afghani President Karzai develop quite cordial ties with “close friend” India.
Talk about Indian hegemony always gets some traction in Pakistan, even though most Pakistanis realize that India is not the cause of their recent troubles. But if Musharaff decides not to back down from emergency rule, he could very well start talking about Indian interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs in an effort to stoke nationalistic feeling.
As long as the United States seems to be involved in trying to rein in Musharaff, India is likely to pursue a public policy of restraint, both rhetorical and otherwise. But if Musharraf tries to divert attention by pressing India on Kashmir or Afghanistan, we might find once again that we were mistaken to forget about India when talking about Pakistan.
Mathew Schmalz is associate professor of religious studies and director of the college honors program at College of the Holy Cross, Worcester.