Why Saudi Government is NOT supporting civilian government in Pakistan?

Why Saudi Government is NOT supporting civilian government in Pakistan?

You ever wonder why Saudi government is not helping out the civilian government? With all the trips Zardari, and his PM, and his FM have made so far, nothing has come out of it. nada. zilch.

And what’s up with Nawaz sharif. Even his “direct links” are not helping. Do you think Saudi Government is hoping that civilian government will collapse in Pakistan. What could be the reasons for such apparent indifference?

Some guppies have pointed out that zardari or other civilians are corrupt so no one wants to put money in Pakistan. But any donor can set up pre-conditions as to how the money will be spent in Pakistan.

Moreover the $$ coming to Pakistan will probably be sent back to Saudi as payments for the imported oil. Any thing leftover will be used to pay $4-5 billion yearly interest on loans that Pakistan has received in the past.

Thus a large scale “syphoning off” of Saudi donation is not possible.

Another factor to consider is this. What do Pakistan offer in return for the bailout money from Saudi or even China? more interest on that money? Would Saudi’s sharia government would expect Pakistan to pay interest? Chinese could possibly do.

But if you ask for interest, then it is not really bailout. It is a loan and possibly on very very high interest. You know when Pakistan’s bond rating goes down, the interest rate goes up.

There are so many of these scenarios that are puzzling. That why Saudis would not bail out civilian government?

Daal mai kuchh kaala lag raha hai? :hmmm:

I hope not. This government needs all the handouts it can get to get Pakistan out of the mess created by their inactivity. They certainly have no plans - so the handouts are the only solution. :frowning:

From what I know, most countries under American influence (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Japan, Western Europe, Canada, etc) and world financial institutions (IMF, World Bank, IDP, ADP) only helps a country if USA gives a nod. America controls many world countries economy through IMF (USA is major donor and policy maker of IMF).

At present, I think USA do not want Pakistan to get cash until Pakistani economy comes back directly under American control, through IMF. Pakistan is an unpredictable country and USA can only control Pakistan economically. Obviously, USA was not happy when Pakistan got rid of IMF in ‘Dec 2004’ and Pakistani economy was progressing fast, getting independent of outside influences. Anyhow, there is advantage with IMF loan as such loans come with lot of conditions, and IMF monitors the economy. Looting and plundering the country is possible but not that easy, and that is the reason Zardari and Nawaz may have around couple of billion dollars each, not 10s of billion dollars each.

Corrupt reputation of present rulers helps in finding reasons of not giving any cash to Pakistan. One can think themselves that when Shaukat Aziz left in Nov 2007, Pakistan had $16.5 billion cash in banks, plus billions of dollars in open market, enough to keep rupee stable at $ = Rs 60 for years. What happened today?

Anyhow, it seems that Pakistan has agreed to take IMF loan and thus USA has given the nod to IMF, so that IMF could lend Pakistan around $6 billion dollars (in the end, it could be more) at around 5 to 6 percent interest. Such loan is called ‘aid’ because of its low interest rate and generous repayment conditions, usually with repayment holiday for years. In commercial market, Pakistan with present rating could not have raised loan and even if they had, it would have been at much higher interest rate plus very harsh repayment conditions, without any repayment holiday.

Further, America has already committed with $1.5 billion aid a year for next 10 years (total $15 billion). Maybe they might come up with some more money. Hopefully Saudi Arabia may also agree to give $4 to $5 billion oil on differed payment as they are also waiting for a nod from their boss in Washington. If USA would agree then World Bank, Asian development bank, Islamic development bank, UAE, Kuwait, Japan, Canada, and Western European countries, all would start giving loan to Pakistan at concessional rates, as USA has huge influence in all these banks and countries, all of them act with American nod.

Anyhow, as far as those countries other than under American influence, Iran has already agreed to give some oil on differed payment and investment in Pakistan. Hopefully, China might also come up with some help (actually, even though it looks that decision of China is completely independent, it seems that China also makes move seeing American mood, as they have huge economical interest with USA. Amongst world influential countries, it seems that only Russia is taking completely independent decisions).

I think that if all goes well and Pakistani corrupts in office start thinking about country more than their pocket, then there is good chance that Pakistan may rebound back, as World situation was never as good for Pakistani economy as it is today. Under right policy void of corruption, Pakistan can grow even faster than last 8 years.

For instance, if confidence on ‘Pakistan’ returns than it is possible that capital that flown out of country might start returning back. If Dubai property market starts collapsing as it is expected due to world financial crises, then maybe huge fund could come back from Dubai to Pakistan too. Crude oil price has also fallen to less than $70 a barrel and could go further down, that would save Pakistan a lot of dollars from expected import bill, helping Pakistan balance of payment and economy. Pakistan imports over 300,000 barrels a day. During last fiscal year (2007-08), Pakistan imported around $12 billion worth of crude oil at an average price of $110 per barrel. This year if price stays at less than $70 a barrel, that would save Pakistan around 4 to 5 billion dollars in 2008-09, maybe more. Pakistan exports are rising and chances are that it could be around $25 billion this year. Obviously import with low crude price and due to increased rupee value, could even go down below $25 billion export. Remittances are also increasing and it might reach $7 billion dollars. I believe, Pakistan is still getting around $600 million from USA as reimbursement payment every year.

Compare to pre-2000 era, expenditure on Pakistan debt servicing … around Rs 600 billion … that also because rupee devalued 36 percent from Rs 61 to Rs 83, and interest rate in Pakistan increased several percentage points during last few months, else debt servicing would have been Rs 350 billion or less … and defence (Rs 300 billion) with respect to federal tax revenue has gone very low. In late 90s, cost of Pakistan debt servicing alone was more than federal tax revenue but in 2008-09, Pakistan is expecting Rs 1300 billion in federal tax revenue, twice what it would cost to service debt. Pakistan has already finished subsidies on oil, food, gas and electricity. So Pakistan would be left with plenty of money for development or loot (I think that all Jiyalas and ganjalas should return to Pakistan and nag their bosses for their share :)). Anyhow, I hope that Jiyalas and Ganjalas would be kind to Pakistan and would leave some money for development work too. It may be wishful thinking for Pakistan, but let hope for the best, as in the end it is Pakistan that matters. :slight_smile:

IMF offers $6bn package -DAWN - Top Stories; October 22, 2008

IMF offers $6bn package
By Anwar Iqbal

WASHINGTON, Oct 21: The United States has repeated its offer to help rescue Pakistan from the current financial crisis as diplomatic sources in Washington say the International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide $6 billion to the country to boost up its ailing economy.

“It’s hard for me to speculate,” said State Department’s deputy spokesman Robert Wood when asked if the IMF had agreed to offer a rescue package to Pakistan. But “we obviously will try to see what we can do to help Pakistan get through its financial crisis”.

Pakistan had “no choice but to seek help from the IMF,” said another State Department official. The official, who was not identified, was quoted in the US media as saying that Pakistani officials knew it would not be a popular decision in Pakistan but they had to go to the IMF.

“It won’t be popular with the public and it sends a lot of negative signals about Pakistan’s financial situation, its creditworthiness. But it’s a decision the Pakistanis are going to have to make,” he said.

The country’s inflation is running at around 25 per cent, and its foreign currency reserves are rapidly depleting, forcing the government to seek emergency cash advance from friendly countries and international financial institutions.

Pakistan is reportedly discussing a $10 billion to $15 billion support package with the IMF and other bodies.

Diplomatic sources in Washington have told Dawn that the IMF has agreed to provide $6 billion to Pakistan to stabilise its economy and to help avoid defaulting on foreign debt repayments due next year.

The money will be available at 5 to 6 per cent interest while Pakistan also has agreed to readjust its monetary policies to qualify for the loan.

The country has already withdrawn subsidies on oil and oil products, a major IMF demand that may hurt millions of ordinary consumers across Pakistan.

“Since Pakistan had already taken some of the most difficult and painful measures, the IMF is willing to help,” said a diplomatic source involved in negotiations between Pakistan and the IMF.

Diplomatic sources said the United States is playing a key role in persuading international financial institutions to help Pakistan but it is also urging Islamabad to undertake serious economic reforms.

Some of Pakistan’s key allies, such as China, also have urged Pakistan to go to the international community with concrete economic plans for seeking assistance instead of “going door-to-door, asking for money,” said Shahid Javed Burki, a former finance minister and vice president of the World Bank.

At the State Department briefing, Mr Wood refused to disclose US plans for helping Pakistan but assured Islamabad that Washington was considering various options.

“It would be premature for me to get ahead of what we may decide to do back here from Washington … but obviously, the situation there is of great concern, not just to us, but obviously to the Pakistanis,” he said.

“And so we will look at ways we can try to help Pakistan, you know, get through this crisis. But beyond that, I don’t have any specifics for you.”

Pakistan’s front-line role in fighting terrorism persuades Washington to help prevent an economic collapse. Policy planners in Washington fear that an economic meltdown will leave this nuclear-armed country of 160 million at the mercy of extremist groups like Al Qaeda and Washington wants to avoid this.

Other Western and Middle Eastern nations also have similar fears and are willing to help.

Re: Why Saudi Government is NOT supporting civilian government in Pakistan?

BurqaPosh, why would nawaz push the Saudis for money, hes not part of this Government.
The responsibility lies with Zardari, and self exiled Mafia leader Altaf of the MQM (the biggest leader after zardari who is in the coalition apart from Wali). However, he has already asked the UK Govt to bail him once though (giving him asylee status), so they might not listen to his squels and howlings.


I'm sure Saudis wanted Nawaz to be in power but since someone else was handed over the power hence the displeasure. A minor possibility may be that they want dictator-like govt in Pakistan too.

Why would Nawaz use his links for Zardari? NS would want the govt to fail to raise possibilities of knocking Zardari out of govt.

At some point "national interest" has to take precedence over partisan politics. There is no guarantee that zardari's fall means automatic rise for Nawaz.

In fact Zardari's fall will probably result of an utter failure of civilian government and the masses may not have stomach to support yet another civilian.

Haven't we learned anything from the past? Our civilians do not play a positive role both from treasury benches AND opposition benches. If they do not follow "Pakistan first" approach then even the very concept of civilian government is prone to failure.

Nawaz Sharif/Zardari and "national interest"? All they are interested in the interest they can get from all the accounts in banks. Its time to re-adjust your bar!

Lets start sending our civilians leaders for a diploma at PMA Kakul then.

Saudi lobby doesn't exist in Pakistan or they don't know how to influence the Pakistani politics. Saudi government need to learn for Israeli government, how they are able to influence the entire world.

Saudis not supporting a civilan government in Pakistan? so just cuz they haven't doled out bag load of cash to Zardari, does it imply they're not supporting the new government?

daku zardari's approach is completely wrong to begin with. He's been going around the world making those idiotic statements : "I need $100bn" with no conditions attached. He has no solid economic reforms plan to show to the world about how to correct the situation, but he's been begging for hard instant cash. No country, specially in the given worldwide situation would be interested to entertain such ludicrous pleas.

Or better yet. Our generals must learn to play civilian politics "AFTER" they retire from the military. Some did try like Asghar Khan. But they ought to use their charism (if any) to rally the masses behind them.

Using military power to govern the country may be a last ditch effort. But we should ask the army guys to join (or start) a political party and then try to lead the nation. Short cuts are only good in short term. Long term vision needs consistent hard work and a vision. May be we do not have a vision thing figured out for Pakistan.

I like to make 2 points, 1: Gaddari and Yousaf Raza Gilani need to sit down with economic advisers from Pakistan and expatriates involve in economic/ Financal related filed (working in Middle-East, Europe and USA) to come up with a solid economic reforms and development plan.

*Short term economic plan - stablizing economy, fixing the banking sector, etc
*Long term economic plan - stablizing economy, creating new economic zone, further developement of new town and cities (coastal cities: Gwader, Pasni, Ormara, Sonmani), etc.

2: If Saudi-Arabia is willing to give us 10 billions dollar than Pakistan should offer Saudi to form a Pak-Saudi audit committee to make sure that money doesn't go into the pockets of corrupted politicians/leaders like Gaddari and his cronies.

*My suggestion: Offer Saudi to help develop Sonmani and same offer to Russia for development of Pasni.

You got it right about short and long term plans. You are also correct when you say we need to develop coastal towns.

The only problem with you approach is to rely on Saudi or Gulf or Russians to develop Pakistani ports.

These guys do not want to see Pakistan compete with oil exports form CIS. Haven't you even seen that China Russia want to keep CIS oil and gas out of the hands of Pakistan?

Man why are we so ignorant and gullible?

Re: Why Saudi Government is NOT supporting civilian government in Pakistan?

im loving the democracy

well the saudi government did help out by supplying fertilizers during the current wheat and cotton season. (and many of u wouldn;t know how bad that crisis was ..jssst like all the crisis)..

but it seems like the government is carrying a bowl with a hole everything u put in goes out immediately.. searching and scrounging..over-billing..over-texing and even thats not helping i wonder where all this money is going...

besides HOW much a friend can help..there is always a limit to it and i think saudi;s have reached their limit...

Re: Why Saudi Government is NOT supporting civilian government in Pakistan?

What happens when you keep on seeing the same begger at the same red light everytime???? :)

I think we need reforms & I mean serious reforms, and it must include we getting away from dependency on Arabs & Americans. We also need to understand that reason we are in the mess is b/c of our dependency on them & their ability to manipulates us. We need to normalize our relationship with India, Iran, & we should look toward CARs, Russia & China for our trade & energy needs.

Re: Why Saudi Government is NOT supporting civilian government in Pakistan?

^^ U have rightly pointed the problem and provided the diagnosis.

Getting away from dependency is a good thing.

However establishing trade relations and providing services should not be considered "dependency". From the perspective of trade and services, the only place to go is to the West. Americans, Germans, French, UK, and Italians spend a combined total of close to $8 trillion a year. Add Japan and S. Korea to this and the total is pretty close to $10 trillion a year. There is no China, or CAR, or Iran that can ever come close to this HUGE market.

Moreover people trade with you based on better but cheaper goods. Pakistan can never sell cheaper in China, India, BDesh, S Lanka, or even Iran. Thus from trade and services point of view India, CARs, TRUCKs, Russia, and China are duds. Their combined spending per year is not even $0.5 trillions and their labor rates are either lower than Pakistanis, or the slightly higher.

The only thing Pakistan can do is "buy" goods and services from India or China. Thus balance of trade cannot favor Pakistan. We have been "net losers" financially by trading with China or India.

Remember! You trade with beggars and remain a beggar. Or you can trade with rich people and hopefully one day you will be rich too.

Think about it, the West offers a business environment of $10 trillions and their labor costs are much higher than those in Pakistan.

America alone offers 6 times bigger market than beggars combined spending of $0.5 trillions.

So let's all come out this made up Islamic socialistic dreams and start working our backs off for the West (just like Indians and Chinese are doing right now).

Internal reforms and trade with the West is the only way out from our miserable economic situation.

Please stop using retired Generals as scapegoats to blame the mess serving Generals cause. Gul as a retired high ranking officer has every right to his opinion and doesnt have any political strength, just his voice.

People dont just change overnight after the day they retire. Zia and Musharraf made an unprecedented mess when they were serving Generals.

A PMA Kakul diploma doesn't make someone an economist nor does it make them a master of beggary.