Re: Who will win the ICC Cricket World Cup 2015
I have analysed 7 teams taking into account players averages and Strike rates. These teams are Aus, SA, Ind, NZ, Eng, SL and Pak. I took most likely 11 out of 15 players and their batting order (though,obviously in actual play, things could be different). Plus, it is obvious that some players may do better in WC than their averages and some would do worse(this is true with all averages), and this cannot be taken into account. It is also true that some players (like Pakistani players) have scored most runs on flat pitches of Sharjah and Dubai pitches, thus their averages may not be as good on pacy and bouncy pitches of Aus and NZ, and that cannot betaken into account too.
Anyhow, as averages and Strike Rates are, this is what is expected (on average) from different teams to score. From here, we can determine the strength of each team (if anyone wants to, I can give the calculation how I came to average scores for each team). I have not gone through for WI and hence I could not say where they stand in the list.
On average after 50 overs:
Aus: 275 for 7
SA: 272 for 7
Ind: 268 for 7
NZ: 266 for 9
Eng: 251 for 7
SL: 242 for 7
Pak: 237 for 7
Note: As can be seen, any above average performance of a team on particular day followed by below average performance from opponent means, result could be different (weaker team winning), as few runs separate teams… though, as these scores are average scores, it normally takes into account exceptional performances (good or bad) and it is these few runs in practice makes lot of difference.
Looking at the figures, I believe there is very little chance that Eng, SL or Pak would qualify for Semi Final, though in ODI ranking, SL is number 4 above Eng at 5 and NZ at 6, but still, it seems (from players ave and SR) that NZ and Eng would qualify above SL.
From above figures, it is clear that team that would make top 4 (and would play SF) would be Aus, SA, Ind and NZ.
Final could be between Aus and SA (unless one eliminates other in SF).
I believe** Australia **would win the cup.
Second favourite is SA.
Note: I used 11 players I think would play for each team (in reality, players could be different, as each team have 15 players to choose from). Further, I only took players current career averages and Strike Rates. Anyhow, occasions could come when players perform above or below their averages, so in the end, results could be entirely different.
Another thing I did not took into account is bowling strength of teams. It means, there is flaw in analysis, as maybe 250 could be good score against one team and bad score against another. Anyhow, I think for the purpose, team batting strength is good indicator of team strength. I also did not gave any runs to any team as extra, though normally there would be on average, around 10 runs extra per inning.
