wats up every one. When ever i read a pakistani newspaper there is always some kind of article on next Pakistani general elections. I was wondring who do u guys think will win the next general eclections??
My vote will be for current goverment!!
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
President-General Musharraf will WIN whichever party achieves "victory". :)
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
The PML Q will win, not because they are popular but because Musharraf wants it to. Pakistani democracy at its best.
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
Yup, Army controlled 'elections' are a constant in Pakistan, with more direct manipulation when you have Army govts
We have never had a completley fair election, free of Army/agency interference
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
i have a feeling that people’s party wouldn’t mind falling victim to some manipulation. with muslim league divided (let’s not forget that PML(N) still has the third largest vote bank, although they’re not in a position to win many seats), people’s party has a very good chance of reasserting itself. after years of dormancy in Punjab, the party is becoming active again, and they enjoy considerable support, especially in rural areas.
i also predict a clash of interest between MQM and PPP. MQM has been critical of Q-league, but perhaps they are going to realize that the real threat to their political agenda comes from PPP, and not Q-league, which is practically president’s party. There is a degree of resentment in the ranks of Q-league with the way party leadership has been used, but they are unlikely to pose any serious threat to the present set-up.
there is absolutely nothing wrong with MQM trying to make inroads into other provinces (unless they decide to replicate their old underworld structure loyal to only one man), but the truth is that they may not be able to achieve their objectives in a couple of years. It will take time. however, they might bank on establishment’s/Musharraf’s support to win a few seats. we have already seen this phenomenon in AJK assembly. i think that neither PPP nor Q-league is going to like MQM’s penetration into their costituency. and it’s interesting to note that during their rallies in Punjab, they have blasted Q-league leadership as well as the progeny of the leadership. all Shujaat can do is grumble. such allies are rare. PPP is unlikey to allow MQM to treat it the way they have treated Q-league. Considering the humbleness and and impotence of Q-league in Sindh, a PPP-MQM set-up in Sindh cannot be ruled out after next election.
it’s hard to predict what will happen in Balochistan and NWFP. it depends on how religious parties fare in the election.
on national level, again, it’s hard to predict anything at this stage. much depends on PPP. there are three types of political forces in pak politics these days. those who are absolutely opposed to military rule (PML-N, JI, TI). those which are opposed to military rule but are open to ‘deals’. i place JUI and even PPP in this category. third type of politcial grouping includes Q-league and MQM, which have their separate agendas and ideologies, but are going to support Musharraf for one reason or the other.
people’s party has an important role. if they throw their weight behind the anti-musharraf group, the present set-up is going to be shaken. if they enter some kind of ‘deal’ with the president, they will be back on the treasury benches, and the next PM could be from PPP.
disclaimer: this is how i view pak political scene. I could be wrong. unlike many of you i have no politcical affiliation. 
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
Interesting analysis, especially your point about the PPP-P accepting less than “fair” election results. This news piece in today’s Nation describes how the party has in effect accepted the results of the last elections.
Violation of selection criterion irks PPP candidates
There is widespread resentment in the ranks and files of the PPP against the screening out of around 60 party heavyweights in the preliminary process of selection. The aggrieved candidates have maintained that party leadership has authenticated the election results of 2002 polls issued by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) by opting to make the ECP results as the basis for its selection criteria. It is pertinent to mention here that PPP leadership assigned the task of selecting probable candidates for award of party tickets have devised a formula, according to which, only those party ticket holders would be entitled to get tickets for 2007 polls, who lost the 2002 election for a National Assembly seat by a small margin of 5000 votes or less. Similarly, for a provincial assembly seat, only those candidates would get tickets, who lost the last election by a narrow margin of 3000 or less votes. This formula is based on the election results of 2002 polls issued by the ECP, but in some cases, exceptions to this formula have also been made to accommodate certain party ‘heavy weights’, ignoring their performance in the last elections. “This is in contravention of party stance that 2002 elections were massively rigged, and that PPP candidates actually got more votes than declared by the election commission”, a party source observed while pointing out dual party stance on the fairness of the 2002 elections.
Party men are also perturbed over violations of the set criterion, as some so-called ‘heavy weights’ have been exempted from application of the 5000 and 3000 votes formula, and many more are likely to be awarded tickets despite their poor performance in the last elections. In Punjab and Federal Area, at least 15 PPP candidates who lost 2002 election by a wider margin (more than 5000 votes) have been considered for party ticket in violation of the said criterion. They include Dr. Babar Awan, Mushtaq Awan, Jehangir Badr, Rana Shaukat Mahmood, Sardar Aseff Ahmad Ali (though not PPP ticket holder in 2002 elections but got only 647 votes as independent candidate), Khalid Kharral, Afzal Sindhu, Mirza Nasir Baig, Ahmad Mukhtar Awan, Gen (Retd) Saeedul Hassan Zaidi. Fakhar Imam (not a PPP candidate in 2002), Makhdoom Imadudin and Ghulam Farid Kathia, In NWFP, 19 party ticket holders includng Gen (Retd) Naseerulla Babar Dr. Arbab Alamgir Khan, Dr. Karamatullah Khan, Rahimdad Khan, Saifullah Khan Khattack, Masood Khattack, Sardar Abrar Ahmad, Faisal Karim Kundi, Dawar Khan Kundi, Usman Shah don’t fulfil the criterion laid down by the party leadership, but they are very likely to get party ticket. As per sources, some aggrieved candidates have written letters to the party chairperson Benazir Bhutto expressing their resentment over the said criterion and its violations.
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?164743
No objection to contesting elections under Musharraf, says Maulana Fazl
Monday January 01, 2007 (0003 PST)
MINA: Opposition leader in National Assembly (NA) Maulana Fazl ur Rehman Sunday said that he has no objection to contesting in general elections in the presence of President Musharraf.
He expressed these views while giving talking to Pakistani Media here in Mina.
He was of the view that real opposition is MMA and not PPP in the parliament underlining that decision of Supreme Council is final and there will be no change in resignation issue.
He further urged the people of Pakistan to support him in the efforts to restore true democracy in the country.
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
It's a general election, and to my knowledge only one general is contesting. Still with manipulation already on it's way (this is true democracy according to Mush haha) , it's more a question of scale. I suspect Mushys supporters will go overboard and aim for a clean sweep.
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
i was wondering how Musharraf is going to engineer his own reelection as president for the next term. when is his current term going to end? what are the ‘constitutional’ options?
Re: Who will win 2007/8 General elections?
The MMA leader is only following suit from the PPP-P which made that kind of announcement earlier, and is now also accepting the 2002 election results.
Polls under Musharraf acceptable: Fahim](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/showthread.php?t=237895)