Who has the world’s best attack?
As Bob Dylan observed in a song a few years ago, Things Have Changed. For the first time in perhaps 35 years, there is no outstanding attack in world cricket.
Since the turn of the millennium, there had been no doubt about who had the heaviest arsenal: it was Australia. They were the only country with a great fast bowler (Glenn McGrath) and a great slow bowler (Shane Warne). Both were big wicket-takers who also kept the runs down - a pair of captain’s dreams. But now they have gone, leaving a thousand-wicket hole.
Brett Lee is pacey and watchable, but erratic and hittable. Stuart Clark has made a phenomenal start - on the list of all-time Test bowling averages, he is in the top ten, ahead of practically every bowler you’ve ever heard of - but he is a nominee for Best Supporting Actor rather than a leading man. And he has played only one Test, and taken only one wicket, outside the bouncy tracks of home and South Africa.
Lee and Clark will presumably be joined by Stuart MacGill and AN Other. MacGill is a fine, sparky legspinner, but the only times he has looked in Warne’s class have been when Warne was in the same team, which seemed to spur one of them on, while putting the other’s nose out of joint.
The fourth man could be an instant hit like Clark: Mitchell Johnson, the regular understudy, has been auditioning well. Equally, it could take him 10 or 15 Tests to settle at the highest level. He will certainly be targeted. Throw in a bit of Andrew Symonds’ allsorts and Michael Clarke’s amiable slow left-arm, and what have you got? A testing but not daunting attack.
Not that the other countries have much to write to Australia about. South Africa have the strongest seam attack now that Shaun Pollock has found his niggardly old mojo, but they still haven’t discovered the existence of spin: even when he desperately needed fourth-innings wickets yesterday, Graeme Smith barely used Paul Harris.
England had a fine seam attack for two years, but when the feisty fourth seamer, Simon Jones, got injured, and their coach Troy Cooley left, the unit fell apart. Matthew Hoggard and Andrew Flintoff are dependable, Steve Harmison has forgotten how to take wickets overseas, and everybody else is either shunned (Jon Lewis) or growing up in public (Jimmy Anderson, Saj Mahmood, Liam Plunkett).
India have the best spin attack in Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh, but Greg Chappell doesn’t like playing them in the same team, which must be a relief to most of his opponents, even if Harbhajan has not been at his best lately. Zaheer Khan, Irfan Pathan and Sreesanth are on their way to being a fine seam attack, but they are merely handy at the moment.
Pakistan have probably the best attack in the world on paper, but in practice … well, if they were all fit, not banned, and speaking to the captain and the coach, they’d be terrific: Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Asif to open, with Mohammad Sami or Umar Gul in support, a bit of Abdul Razzaq or Shahid Afridi … but then a weakish link in Danish Kaneria. New Zealand have Shane Bond, who is very fast and very good, but nothing else to frighten the horses. Sri Lanka have one genius, one yeoman, and one interesting slinger. West Indies? Well, their one-day bowling is promising.
They all seem much of a muchness. One way of distinguishing between them is to use the LG ratings. Australia’s top four bowlers are Clark at 7, Lee at 12, MacGill at 21 and Jason Gillespie (my dear old thing!) at 22. Total 62. I wondered if any other country could do better. Here are the results for the main teams, taking their top four bowlers and using the ratings as they stood yesterday.
England 65
Hoggard 6, Flintoff 8, Harmison 18, Panesar 33
Pakistan 58
Shoaib 9, Gul 15=, Kaneria 15=, Asif 19 (Now on 11th)
India 67
Kumble 3, Pathan 14, Harbhajan 24, Sreesanth 26
Sri Lanka 74
Murali 1, Vaas 11, Malinga 30, Fernando 32
South Africa 48
Ntini 2, Pollock 4, Nel 17, Kallis 25
New Zealand 62
Bond 6, Franklin 13, Vettori 20, Martin 23
West Indies 118
Collymore 10, Collins 29, Edwards 39, Taylor 40
And the winner is … South Africa. (Although they still don’t have a spinner.) The ratings are not, of course, gospel. They are too swayed by recent form, as if reacting against career averages, which are not swayed enough by it. But they are not crazy either. And by their reckoning, Australia now have only the third best attack in the world, equal with New Zealand. By the time of their next Test, in November, they will be even lower, because Johnson, or whoever, will start with a much lower rating than the one Gillespie is clinging onto. Test cricket is about to become more interesting.