Re: Who can Lead Pakistan in this situation?
pakistan
Four strengths to build on
By Moazzam Husain
Sunday, 24 May, 2009 | 10:04 AM PST |
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On the eve of September 11, 2001, the country was a pariah state under a military ruler — impoverished, bankrupt, a source of proliferating nuclear technology and a state using jihadis to further its regional territorial interests.
The 1990s had ended as what many termed a ‘lost decade’ in which a population bomb had exploded. Seven years and $10bn after 9/11, there is enormous international goodwill. There is noise and chaos of a democracy. Following the inflating and bursting of a real estate and stock market asset bubble, the economy is again in despair. A double game has ended as a political consensus appears to be developing against Islamic militancy. Large parts of the NWFP are still outside government control.
Since 9/11, 30 million people have been born — a generation that risks a strong probability of witnessing in their lifetimes cataclysmic events of a type only their ancestors would have seen a century earlier, that fateful summer of 1947 when ‘…violence spread from one part of Lahore to another like a plague. There must have been trained gangs of thugs moving from one place to another. It was hard to reconcile these bloody events with the nature of our life in pre-partition Lahore,’ writes celebrated Indian painter Krishen Khanna in a piece for the book Beloved City: Writings on Lahore edited by Bapsi Sidhwa.
‘No one could have imagined that entire populations would be bludgeoned out and rendered homeless and such cruelty and barbarity would prevail amongst Punjabis,’ Khanna, a blue-blooded Lahori who studied at Government College and spent many childhood days in the shadow of Kim’s Gun in front of the Lahore Museum, tells us. No one probably imagined it on the eve of partition in 1947, and no one can today imagine the possibility of such a scenario erupting again in, say, 2047. Luckily for Khanna, the process of partition ended. He was able to revisit Lahore in 1988 during the First International Biennale of Arts and sketch the cannon in drawings and abstract paintings. On the other hand, the crisis towards which we are now headed does not have a happy ending.
A regional scramble for water is set to begin — with the Himalayan glacial melt — that begins in as little as 10 years from now. The country will have yet another 30 million people by that time. A predicted deluge, followed by water shortages, desertification, and climate refugees are only some of the expected outcomes. Pakistan is going to be hit hard. By some accounts the Cholistan desert is expected to expand — reaching to the outskirts of Sahiwal.
In the interest of its people, Pakistan will need to enter this very challenging era as a significant economic and military power. After losing the last two decades, the next 10 years probably represent the last window of opportunity. Pakistan will need to urgently build on four of its existing strengths if it is to stand a fighting chance of survival in the several difficult decades beginning as early as 2020.
The first of these strengths is the mountain of international goodwill that presently exists for Pakistan. This will not last for ever. This is an opportunity for Pakistan to harness this tide in its own favour to position itself as a significant player for the power politics of the water scramble that lies ahead. Put bluntly, Pakistan needs to look beyond seeking handouts that barely keep its head above the water. Regardless of assurances that ‘we wronged you and we will not walk away’ this window is open only for a while. In a fast-changing world, no US administration can guarantee what future US interests and priorities will be.
In the larger scheme of things, a Pakistan that is unable to take back control of its territory from non-state actors and deny its soil for their activities will find this goodwill beginning to evaporate. It will find it hard to justify possessing and holding on to its nuclear weapons. In time the world may well find a solution to resolve this dilemma. A Pakistan without nuclear weapons in which Islamic militant and other vigilante groups and warlords control dwindling water resources will not be a worry for the United States. It will not be a worry for a powerful next-door India that will be able to trample on the Indus water treaty in the absence of a credible state.
The military is conscious of the fact that the activities of militant Islamists can degrade the capacity of the state to function; it can injure society and impose unacceptable costs on the economy. This ultimately depletes the nation’s economic and war potential. It is also conscious that Pakistan’s perception as a declining power would make it a less attractive partner for the US, France, Iran and even China.
A wise old man who lives on top of a mountain once said: ‘Carry a big stick, but speak softly.’ In this sense, our nuclear arsenal (together with a powerful military) represents the second strength. In terms of a packing list for the future, we will need this big stick when the water scramble begins. We will not need the Taliban. Clearly, therefore, Pakistan had to make a choice between its Islamists and its nuclear arsenal. At last week’s APC, it chose correctly.
The third strength is this country’s energy, agriculture and trade corridor potential — representing an opportunity to develop the economic elements of national power. Pakistan has to get to work on developing its Thar coal assets — using clean coal technologies. Seawater agriculture is an emerging technology that needs to be explored. In agriculture, high-value crops, improvement of soil carbon content, efficient irrigation technologies and forestation along canals should be priority areas when asking our friends to help.
Our fourth strength is a nascent, imperfect and chaotic democracy, one that is dominated by flawed but still, relatively secular parties. Pakistan must consolidate its present gains and evolve its imperfect political system and culture into democratic institutions that are able to deliver what Political Science 101 says a political system should: determine who gets what, when, where, how and why. Impressively Pakistan’s ‘fragile’ democracy has addressed at least one question correctly, when it built a consensus for Pakistan to fight back.
For the two riparian neighbours — both military and economic powers — water wars will be averted by domestic economic factors as much as the strength of their democracies. Domestic conflict will be averted by strengthening, particularly last-mile delivery, of governance and the distribution of public goods. This window is open for a while only. The post Taliban era must soon begin. There is a lot of work ahead.](“http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php”)
