Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is set to announce the results of its investigation into allegations of fraud during August’s presidential election.
It has been recounting a sample of suspect ballots and its findings could force a second round of voting.
BBC News examines possible scenarios.
KARZAI IS DECLARED THE WINNER
As results stand presidential incumbent Hamid Karzai leads preliminary results with about 55% of the vote, considerably ahead of former foreign minister Dr Adbdullah Abdullah, who has 28%.
Karzai questions vote fraud panel
High stakes in Afghan vote recount
A candidate needs to secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid a second round run-off.
The votes that are confirmed by the ECC to be suspect are likely to be invalidated by Afghanistan’s election commission.
If Mr Karzai retains more than 50% of the vote even after votes are invalidated then he will be confirmed as the victor and there will be no second round of voting.
Hamid Karzai would then embark on another five-year term as president.
This result may anger supporters of his nearest challenger Dr Abdullah - primarily Tajiks and Uzbeks based in the north of the country - where Dr Abdullah won the majority of the vote.
There is the possibility of demonstrations by people in these areas angered by the outcome of the recount.
But this would also depend on the margin of victory for Hamid Karzai.
It is still not clear if Dr Abdullah will accept the results should Mr Karzai be declared the winner even after the recount.
AFGHANISTAN PREPARES FOR A RUN-OFF
If votes for Hamid Karzai fall below 50% after ballots are invalidated then the constitution states that there has to be a second round run-off between the two candidates with the most votes.
AFGHAN FRAUD ALLEGATIONS
- 30 Sep: UN recalls envoy Peter Galbraith following row over the vote recount process
- 15 Sep: ECC chief says 10% of votes need to be recounted
- **8 Sep: **Poll complaints body orders some recounts nationwide
- **8 Sep: **IEC says votes from 600 polling stations “quarantined”
- 3 Sep: Claims 30,000 fraudulent votes cast for Karzai in Kandahar
- 30 Aug: 2,000 fraud allegations are probed; 600 deemed serious
- 20 Aug: Election day and claims 80,000 ballots were filled out fraudulently for Karzai in Ghazni
- 18 Aug: Ballot cards sold openly and voter bribes offered
Election: Main fraud allegations
This has to be held within two weeks of the announcement.
But the rapid onset of winter from early November will make matters difficult. Severe winter weather is likely to make parts of the country almost inaccessible.
There is fear that the journey to a local polling station in the depths of winter will simply be too gruelling for many Afghans.
In addition, the authorities will have to once again mobilise election officials, polling stations, polling cards, security and organise the collection of ballot boxes and counting.
Decisions about the location of polling stations and the staff they hire to man them will also have to be made to prevent repeating mistakes made in the first round.
The election itself took months to plan. The run-off would have a matter of weeks. But authorities are reported to have already printed ballot papers.
Correspondents say there is no guarantee that the authorities could prevent the security breaches and corruption that marred the first round.
But delaying a vote until the spring could leave Afghanistan in political limbo at a time when major Western powers are pondering whether to send more troops or not - leaving the way open for militants to make their mark.
Many analysts suggest a substantial delay is highly unlikely.
A UNITY GOVERNMENT BRINGS OPPONENTS TOGETHER
Another option which has been mooted is that the main challengers form a power-sharing government.
Even if Mr Karzai’s vote drops below 50% there is the possibility that a deal is brokered whereby members of Dr Abdullah’s team are somehow included in a Karzai cabinet.
Dr Abdullah himself may even be included even though he has previously ruled himself out of such an arrangement.
However, in recent days he has appeared to have softened his stance.
In comments to the press on Wednesday, Dr Abdullah said: “Once results are announced, I would be open to dialogue.”
And in an interview on US television earlier this week, Mr Karzai said that for the past seven years, he had been known as “a man who brings inclusiveness”.
“The unity of [the] Afghan people is paramount here and we will continue to strive for that,” he said.
TRADITIONAL LOYA JIRGA TO RESTORE LEGITIMACY
Some analysts have suggested that one possible course of action is that a loya jirga - a traditional tribal gathering of senior politicians and tribal leaders - meets to broker a solution to the impasse at some point in the political process.
This could happen at any time whether or not Hamid Karzai retains 50% of the vote after fraudulent ballots are discarded.
One possible scenario is that a run-off is called, Mr Karzai wins a second round, but he still convenes a loya jirga at the end of it all to suggest solutions which could restore legitimacy and credibility to a bedevilled process.