NY times Op-ed today. Here is the link for article.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/27/opinion/27benjamin.html
Here is the link for the SITE organization that it mentions, interesting to see once again that it is run by the people of the book.
http://www.siteinstitute.org/
What the Terrorists Have in Mind
By DANIEL BENJAMIN and GABRIEL WEIMANN
Published: October 27, 2004
With less than a week before the election, President Bush is seeking to turn the favorable ratings he receives for his prosecution of the war on terrorism into a clinching advantage. His latest television advertisement, using a pack of wolves to stand in for foreign terrorists, ends with the line: “Weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm.” He has backed up this sentiment in his foreign-policy stump speeches. "In a free and open society, it is impossible to protect against every threat,‘’ he told a New Jersey crowd. “The best way to prevent attacks is to stay on the offense against the enemy overseas.”
Of course, Mr. Bush is correct: A central part of our strategy must be to pre-empt terrorists, attacking them before they attack us. But not all offensive strategies are equal, and Mr. Bush errs by arguing that the one being employed is doing the job. One need only listen to the terrorists and observe their recent actions to understand that we face grave problems. After all, their analysis of the battle is a key determinant of the level of terrorism in the future.
To get a sense of the jihadist movement’s state of mind, we must listen to its communications, and not just the operational “chatter” collected by the intelligence community. Today, the central forum for the terrorists’ discourse is not covert phone communications but the Internet, where Islamist Web sites and chat rooms are filled with evaluations of current events, discussions of strategy and elaborations of jihadist ideology.
Yes, assessing this material requires a critical eye since there is plenty of bluster and some chat room participants may be teenagers in American suburbs rather than fighters in the field. Some things, however, are clear: There has been a drastic shift in mood in the last two years. Radicals who were downcast and perplexed in 2002 about the rapid defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan now feel exuberant about the global situation and, above all, the events in Iraq.
For example, an article in the most recent issue of Al Qaeda’s Voice of Jihad - an online magazine that comes out every two weeks - makes the case that the United States has a greater strategic mess on its hands in Afghanistan and Iraq than the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan in the 1980’s. As translated by the SITE Institute, a nonprofit group that monitors terrorists, the author describes how the United States has stumbled badly by getting itself mired in two guerrilla wars at once, and that United States forces are now “merely trying to ‘prove their presence’ - for all practical purposes, they have left the war.”
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist now wreaking havoc in Iraq, sees things in a similar way. “There is no doubt that the Americans’ losses are very heavy because they are deployed across a wide area and among the people and because it is easy to procure weapons,” he wrote in a recent communiqué to his followers that was posted on several radical Web sites. “All of which makes them easy and mouthwatering targets for the believers.”
Clearly, the president’s oft-repeated claim that American efforts are paying off because “more than three-quarters of Al Qaeda’s key members and associates have been killed, captured or detained” - a questionable claim in itself - means little to jihadists. What matters to them that the invasion of Iraq paved the way for the emergence of a movement of radical Sunni Iraqis who share much of the Qaeda ideology.
Among the recurrent motifs on the Web are that America has blundered in Iraq the same way the Soviet Union did in the 1980’s in Afghanistan, and that it will soon be leaving in defeat. “We believe these infidels have lost their minds,” was the analysis on a site called Jamaat ud-Daawa, which is run out of Pakistan. “They do not know what they are doing. They keep on repeating the same mistake.”
For the radicals, the fighting has become a large part of a broader religious revival and political revolution. Their discussions celebrate America’s occupation of Iraq as an opportunity to expose the superpower’s “real nature” as an enemy of Islam that seeks to steal the Arab oil patrimony. “If there was no jihad, Paul Bremer would have left with $20 trillion instead of $20 billion,” one Web site declared.