We all have read many times how Karzai has been negotiating with Taliban for over a year and occasionally US has shown willingness to let Taliban share power in Afghan govt.
So if negotiations at some point are successful and Taliban manage back to power in Afghanistan, where does it leave Pakistan?
Would Taliban spare Pakistan and move out completely and not have ill-feelings towards Pakistan?
Would they stop disrupting activities in Pakistan?
What would Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan do?
Re: What happens if Taliban do come into power again in Afghanistan!?
Well this takes into account a few issues. Firstly have the Military and the ISI kept solid links with these elements. If you read the Western Media we all sleep in the same house and share breakfast. If that is the case we should have no problems with the Taliban as we are already in league with them.
Then comes the issue if we are not in league with them and while we are fighting them, the US and Karzai are busy trying to appease them. That may actually explain where the hell these Taliban are getting so much money to buy RDX and TNT or specifically getting the supplies needed for the suicide bombings.
However if th Taliban do come to power in Afghanistan it provides our military with much needed strategic depth. However lets not discount the India or US factors either. They do not want to see a stable Pakistan. So if the Taliban do come into some form of coalition, it would not be to our advantage.
Additionally we must see how much interlinkages tehre are between those in Pakistan and those fighting Afghanistan.
Frankly if this does happen, we would need to move in fast. We need to move in and establish schools right off the bat teaching the people in Pakhtunkwa a less crazy version of life.
We'll do whatever be directed by Washington. Firstly, Whatever Karzai says and does, it also comes from Washington so its actually a two point steps taken by US officials:
1) Ask karzai to ping Taliban leaders to come forward and talk. This may be a great trap but they may also want Taliban leaders to come out of their hideouts, sit on the table letting US re-estimate Taliban power correctly. Also that will lead them to estimate the possible areas where OBL may be hiding.
2) Pushing Pakistan to take as much forceful action as possible in the areas around Afghan border. If pakistan crushes Pro-taliban forces or if somehow, they find OBL, they'll never let Karzai talk to Taliban then, rather they will continue and decimate Taliban forces.
They have just changed their tactics but they'll never let Taliban come into power that easily.
err... I'd like to make minor correction to the subject.... Its not a question of IF but WHEN... WHEN Taliban come to power.... And yes when they are back in power it will be business as usual except heroin production will go down to same level when they were in power... ... Influence/activities of anti-pak elements will be reduced and you will see less terrorist attacks in Pak..
And of course in the end there will be lot of noise blah blah blah and US will declare victory and go home..
That will be the gist of Afghan war always have been always will be. Welcome to the land of tribes & nomads..
And the world will move on...
I agree with Salahuddin and I want to add that the come back of Taliban would be better for both Afghanistan and Pakistan but I don't see it happen soon, it will take ages till the US is broken like the Soviet Union and it will happen inshallah. US is not leaving anytime soon, the great struggle is to come now, and in fact it's not the question of Taliban's coming back, it's about the integrity of Pakistan which is in danger, Pakistan might be broken. The Tribal belt at least is going to get merged with Afghanistan, Balochistan is going to be an independent state and Pakistanis are going to lose their nukes. This is the plan, US hasn't come here on picnic.
The Karzai government is limited to Kabul and the ISAF. The rest of the country is lawless. They have no control over it. Taliban are already active there.
They have just changed their tactics but they'll never let Taliban come into power that easily.
They could let Taliban come to power. By creating phony Taliban (TTP) they have successfully diverted much media attention to "Pakistani Taliban" and how this is now Pakistan's war where US is helping Pakistan overcome militancy.
succinctly written :k: