Re: What are the reasons?
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*Originally posted by Sarah Splendor: *
That the four members of the UN Security Council against the war in Iraq are against it? China, France, Russia, and Germany. Why are they against the war?
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Ok, I'm going out on a limb to try and actually give a straight answer.
The official position is that they believe pre-emptive strikes without evidence that Iraq actually has weapons of mass destruction, is against all international law. Having said that, the following are some of the speculations put forward by political pundits.
France: They have huge existing oil contracts in Iraq and worry that after Americans occupy Iraq, they will cancel all old contracts and award them to US companies. Real worry. Real opposition.
USSR: Again, Russia was just given huge oil contracts in Iraq. In addition, significant oil reserves are discovered in Russia, and so the govt. there is worried that if US brings down the oil prices by increasing production from Iraqi wells, then Russia won't be able to get expected revenue from its own oil production. Secondly, Russia does not want a direct foot hold of USA in the middle of Middle East.
Germany: Don't think they have any significant oil contracts in Iraq. However, the Germans just had elections, and the party which won the elections had promised not to involve German troops in a war in Iraq, so they gotta keep the election promise, as they had gotten votes on that. Plus, they built most of the bunkers in Baghdad and in Iraq, so they probably didn't wanted those to be crushed by bunker-buster bombs as thats bad publicity for German products.
China: They are likely to oppose anything which means more power to US. This time they found 3 other major allies in the UNSC.
That being said, all four are likely to accept the developing events in Iraq as fait accompli and will rush to protect their interests in any post-war Iraq. So, its possible, they will all change their public posturing very soon, if not already. Its a game of self-interests-first. Always.