Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan
http://nation.com.pk/daily/nov-2007/5/index13.php
US must change policy towards Pakistan: Biden
SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
WASHINGTON - Joseph Biden, a Democratic presidential candidate, says President Pervez Musharraf’s declaration of emergency requires Washington “to move from a Musharraf policy to a Pakistan policy,” as Bush administration officials expressed frustration and dismay over the Pakistani leader’s action.
In interviews with news media, Biden, who is chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called for building “a new relationship with the Pakistani people, with more non-military aid, sustained over a long period of time, so that the moderate majority in Pakistan has a chance to succeed.” Citing analysts, The Washington Post in a front-page dispatch said Gen Musharraf’s decision to suspend the constitution Saturday “poses a sharp setback for US efforts to push Pakistan toward democracy, and it calls into question President Bush’s unstinting support for Musharraf despite the general’s growing unpopularity and inability to counter hard-line militants.”
The Washington-datelined dispatch said, “The United States now finds itself with few good options and dwindling power to influence events in the nuclear-armed state, particularly because experts believe Musharraf’s actions may have ensured his demise as a national leader, “The Bush administration has given Pakistan $10 billion in aid since 2001 - much of it military assistance-and US officials had warned that Congress may balk at continuing aid if emergency powers were invoked, . But some analysts cautioned that if the United States is perceived as withdrawing support for Musharraf, it may increase the risk of a civil war and the shattering of Pakistan.”
Rice, who called Musharraf on Friday and warned him against taking this step, said Saturday that Musharraf’s actions are “highly regrettable,” telling reporters travelling with her that “the United States has made clear it does not support extra-constitutional measures, because those measures would take Pakistan away from the path of democracy and civilian rule.” US officials, according to The Post, were taken aback by Musharraf’s move but quickly shifted from expressions of dismay to resignation, insisting that any “extra-constitutional measures” be brief. There was no suggestion of immediate cuts in aid, and Rice indicated that she had told Musharraf that, even if he imposed emergency rule, he nonetheless should move quickly to elections, it said.
The Bush administration must now start “from the premise that he’s gone, whether the people chuck him out or the military chucks him out,” Xenia Dormandy, who until last year was the National Security Council’s director for South Asia, was quoted as saying. “I would be very surprised if he lasts even six months.” Dormandy faulted the Bush administration for sending “mixed messages” to Musharraf in recent months, allowing him to believe he could weather the fallout from a declaration of emergency powers.
She emphasized the State Department’s statement Saturday that the United States stands “with the people of Pakistan in supporting a democratic process and in countering violent extremism,” and noted that it did not mention support for Musharraf.
“The train is derailed and off the tracks,” Stephen Cohen, author of “The Idea of Pakistan,” was quoted as saying in The Post. “We have to give ourselves a share of the responsibility for this. We placed all of our chips on Musharraf.” At this point, Cohen added: “I don’t think there is anything we can do. We are not big players in this anymore.” Stating that that Mushaarraf’s credentials in promoting democracy were less than impressive, The Post said his record on even on countering terrorism has proven to be a disappointment.
Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman called Musharraf’s declaration “unfortunate” but said “close coordination with the Pakistani military on operations continues.”
“The coup in Pakistan is a body blow to the administration’s efforts to arrange a shotgun marriage between Musharraf and (Benazir) Bhutto that would have given the appearance of a broadening of Pakistani politics,” said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst and National Security Council staff member now at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center. “Instead of a more democratic Pakistan, we will have a more authoritarian Pakistan. Instead of a more stable Pakistan fighting Al-Qaeda, we will have a military regime fighting for its survival.”
Teresita Schaffer, an expert on Pakistan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called General Musharraf’s action “a big embarrassment” for the administration, according to The New York Times. But she said there was not much the United States could do. “There’s going to be a lot of visible wringing of hands, and urging Musharraf to declare his intentions,” she said. “But I don’t really see any alternative to continuing to work with him. They can’t just decide they’re going to blow off the whole country of Pakistan, because it sits right next to Afghanistan, where there are some 26,000 US and NATO troops.” Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the current situation could easily plunge Pakistan into chaos, leading to an increase in violence by Islamic fundamentalists or provoking demonstrations by opposition political parties. “You could have chaos in the street, or a situation where it would be suicidal for Ms. Bhutto to try to participate in the process,” he said, adding, “Either of those scenarios puts the US in a very difficult position.” Rice was in Istanbul, attending an international conference on Iraq when her attention was shifted to the upheaval in Pakistan. One adviser traveling with Rice saw a silver lining in the rapid turn of events. “Thank heavens for small favours,” the official was quoted as saying in The Post. Compared to Pakistan, “Iraq looks pretty good,” he said.