Western reaction to the Emergency [merged]

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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So I am confused. If Mushy wants to wipe out Islamist Extremists, I am all for it. Go to it. They threaten Mushy, and have attempted to kill him. They pose a threat across the globe. Fine, have at it.

But, what does that have to do with the Chief Justice? And 500 political opponents? And lawyers, and the media? Are they supposedly part and parcel of the Islamic wave?

I may be an American, but I am not an idiot. I want Democracy in Pakistan. Careful, considerate, deliberate, peaceful Democracy. To the extent that is impossible because of violent Jihadis, then I am prepared to support Mushy and wait out Democracy til the time when a Democracy has a chance to succeed. That gives Mushy a pretty long leash.

But rounding up your political opponents en masse does not sound like a prelude to Democracy. This is a dictator consolidating power, pure and simple. A while ago I saw lawyers in suits being beaten by police. These people did not appear to be wild-eyed suicide bombers. They looked like conservative main stream Pakistanis with everything to lose. No Cheney-esque dead enders, but pillars of society.

Ultimately, Mushy is a dictator. He rose to power in a coup. He espoused a path towards Democracy. I personally no longer believe he is on that path. If his initiatives were only against the most violent and sociopathic elements of society, then he would have my support. Wiping out your entire opposition and blaming it on extremists goes beyond the pale. Does he think we are idiots? The only thing allowing the US to support him is the threat of absolute chaos in Pakistan. And that, my dear friends, may be closer than we all would like to think.

In an electronic age, governments can fall based on the CNN, BBC, Al-Jazeera effect. Once people get organized, I would imagine that they will take to the streets and challenge this move. Mushy will fall when too many are shot in the street. I have a very bad feeling about this. I hope I am wrong, but change is in the winds.

Please be safe.

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Re: Extremism needs a political solution [split: Imran Khan escapes from house arres

Hello OG,

in this charged environment you will get varying answers from people of different camps, but heres my summary:

Musharraf was recently re-elected President in controversial elections. The courts were deciding whether or not that re-election was legal. Rumours were going round that they were going to decide against him. The axe fell. In a world where you can defend anything before Western audiences in the name of terrorism (including in american govts) the rationale included fifteen mentions of terrorism, when effectively the only measures taken were to strike down the courts deciding musharraf's case.

being a pessimist I will disagree when you say change is in the air. Pakistan will become more repressive, and will probably have violence, but dictatorships are fairly resilient, and Mushie will ride it out. He will sell himself to western powers as the only force in Pakistan other than the taleban (by eliminating all other forces, and being halfhearted in fighting what is effectively his support base) and will therefore remain their ally. No serious repurcussions for him, domestically or abroad.

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Re: Extremism needs a political solution split: Imran Khan escapes from house arres

I believe that this is the straw that will break the camels back. Despite terse diplomatic proclamations, the US and UK must be furious with him. Our days of supporting Dictators are over. This is most distasteful. If anything the back channels are on fire, and the message to the Pakistani Army will be clear. Mushy is discredited, and the Pak army has never supported a discredited leadership. When street protests result in Pak soldiers slaughtering protestors, the whole ordeal will become too unsavory for the Pak army. Mushy will fall.

The only thing preventing street protests now is the sudden shock of the event. As the outrage grows and becomes more organized, there may be a "green revolution". These are uncertain times, I hope you all stay safe.

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Re: Extremism needs a political solution [split: Imran Khan escapes from house arres

i hope you are right (aside from the slaughtered protesters). but i doubt it.

its election season in the states, and the republicans wont want to rock the boat too much. be too stern with mush and you lose an ally, a guy who may be less than flattering, but atleast he wears your colours.

my perception of the people seems to be dispirited rather than shocked and angry. they were angry four months ago. they're hopeless now. there will be a timid fight, pockets of protesters, heavily managed. musharraf will stay on, and it wont be so bad for him as to have to leave.

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

Actually I do not think the common Pakistani will not feel anything has become too different with the emergency, because in terms of 'real' rights they had been curbed a long time ago. The primary differences since emergency will be felt more by the politicians (including their justices who I firmly have known are just politicians) and other elites who saluted Musharaf to his face and engaged in all kinds of activities behind his back.

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

First anti-terrorist laws and special courts introduced anywhere in world was in Pakistan and it was I think in 1997 (under Nawaz government). This happened against people doing suicide bombings and assassinations on basis of religious sectarianism. First terrorist court was introduced anywhere in the world was in April 1999 when name of special court was changed to terrorist court (again under Nawaz government). First time anyone was extradited on terrorist charges from Pakistan to USA was in 1997 (Amal Kansi and Ramzi Yusuf), and that was again under Nawaz government.

All happened during political government in Pakistan. Actually it was Pakistan that started war against terrorism during political rule of NS. Musharraf continued that war and later after 9-11, USA got that war approved by UN claimed that war as theirs, and joined Pakistan’s ‘war on terrorism’. If these terrorists were capable of talks, political solution would have happened for this menace during Nawaz time. I think there best solution is to blow them up and quicker this is done the better, as these terrorist are organic animals and grow with time.

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Re: Extremism needs a political solution [split: Imran Khan escapes from house arres

I regret to say that your analysis will not come true. The US/UK have dealt with dictators and autocrats and will continue to do (Hosni Mubarak, Kings of S.Arabia etc).

The opposition to Musharraf is too divided. As you can imagine, Pakistan's many ethnic, political differences are highlighted during crises. At the moment only 2 Western Provinces (NWFP + Baluchistan) have opposed him. The eastern (majority) provinces have not turned against him outright. On the political side you have the Urdu Speaking MQM + Strong in Sind and parts of Punjab, Bhutto's PPP not actively opposing this action. As for Punjab, its heavy representation in the military has created a situation where there is a sense of complacency if not acceptance. Sure there are pockets of opposition in Sind & Punjab but they are hardly unified.

Oh and the overseas Pakistanis don't count. Besides these internet based protests, they will not be effectual in the matters of the homeland.

Actually, I would like to see a green revolution..but it won't happen.

Punjabian di Thread
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Western reaction to the Emergency [merged]

I had just finished responding to another thread regarding the possibility of Musharraf being shunned by the US. Not going to happen, I guess.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/05/washington/05diplo.html?_r=1&hp&oref=login

** U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan **

By DAVID E. SANGER and DAVID ROHDE
WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 — The Bush administration signaled Sunday that it would likely continue to keep billions of dollars flowing to Pakistan’s military, despite the detention of human rights activists and leaders of the political opposition by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the country’s president.
In carefully calibrated public statements and blunter, private acknowledgments about the limits of American leverage over General Musharraf, the man President Bush has called one of his most critical allies, the officials argued that it would be counterproductive to let Pakistan’s political turmoil interfere with their best hope of ousting Al Qaeda’s central leadership and Taliban from the country’s mountainous tribal areas.

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

And how do you know this having never set foot in the country??

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

On side note, anyone have tips on copying/pasting without the hyperlinks? It must be annoying for the reader to see them.

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

Musharraf and generals around him are behaving like a mad-bull. These barbarians need some punishment from people now.

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

Ohioguy

Pakistan needed john ashcroft or alberti gonzalvez...... and not iftikhar chodhry. Pakistan needed thing like patriot act to pick up suspects..... and detain them.....even as enemy combatents... indefinitely...but Pakistan Supreme court was not willing to play ball..bringing up the 'missing persons' questions.

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

Why would US shun Mushy for emergency? Mushy did it after 1 hour talk with US officials (possibly Condi Rice).

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

Military dictators in Pakistha have been lucky. They have been in power when US most needed them.

Zia during Russian invasion of Afghanistan and Musharraf in post 9/11 era.

As long as Musharraf is around, Taleban WILL BE around, for he needs them to keep support from western allies.

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Re: Musharraf and the West - endgame? [split: Extremism needs a political solution]

That is the problem, as Sa1eem mentioned, the war against them was already on, there is no need for "dictatorship" to continue fighting the extremism. Blind bombing of areas where civilians live are only going to fuel the fire/fight, this is what I said when Afghanistan war was started, when Iraq war was started and when Pakistan army started bombing of local areas..... but I guess I am a nobody.... but wait, a "nobody" can tell the outcome, howcome the "think tanks" couldn't think about it? I think they knew the outcome, they have a plan which we are not aware of, we are being kept in dark about it.

[quote]
But, what does that have to do with the Chief Justice? And 500 political opponents? And lawyers, and the media? Are they supposedly part and parcel of the Islamic wave?
[/quote]

Exactly, he is not after "extremism/militancy", he wants to stay in power, kill a few militants every few days, send a 'weekly status report' on how many militants were killed during the week, how much "money" was spent so it can be "reimbursed" etc. Mushy knows that once "Taliban/militants" are wiped out, he will be the next one to be wiped out.

[quote]
I may be an American, but I am not an idiot. I want Democracy in Pakistan. Careful, considerate, deliberate, peaceful Democracy. To the extent that is impossible because of violent Jihadis, then I am prepared to support Mushy and wait out Democracy til the time when a Democracy has a chance to succeed. That gives Mushy a pretty long leash.
[/quote]
But unfortunately you are a 'civilian/common-man', not someone who can pull few strings around to do anything about it.

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

Well, Bush may not, but its the Congress that controls money. I saw Senator Biden on TV saying that the Congress will look into the issue. The Democrat led Congress is lot less Mushrraf friendly than Bush. I hope they do something to put pressure on Mushrraf and the junta from oppressing people of Pakistan.

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

They will put pressure on him but only to squeeze him for their own good.

Geo is reporting that talks between Pentagon and Pak postponed bcoz of emergency.

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

if U.S. pressures him to reinstate the constitution, they'll be asking him to commit political suicide because you know damn sure the SC is gona come back with the verdict quicker than a breath. And my feeling is that's exactly what U.S. wants to do at this point, this way they'll be 'supporting' the people of Pakistan, and getting rid of a liability, and making way for 'democracy' and bringing in their forerunners such as BB and Kiyani. so sweet yet so potent.

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

how low can you go? last year when israel attacked lebanon, u.s. congress actually increased aid to israel. and yet opponents of govt are looking to u.s. to help them by asking the help of yehudi influenced congress. musharaff in response should establish diplomatic relations with israel, which will quadruple aid to pak. also u.s. aid has very little impact on pak economy. so musharraf wont be losing sleep.

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Re: U.S. Is Likely to Continue Aid to Pakistan

^^ Well, Mushrraf has become a Zia. He has no right to oppress people of Pakistan, and he has no legitimacy and lost all moral authority. Let people decide their own future through free fair and democratic means. They deserve it.