Olivia Ward, FOREIGN AFFAIRS WRITER
May 15, 2007: The Toronto Star
In the sticky heat of a New York September, Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf was cool and relaxed as he fielded polite questions from
international journalists at the launch of his best-selling
autobiography.
The question of his resignation from the office that he seized in a
1999 bloodless military coup was not on the table. And he explained
that as a reformer, he would do what was best for the country.
Eight months later, Musharraf is feeling the heat from all directions,
and the country is rising against him.
Pakistan’s major cities are paralyzed by political strikes and rocked
by violence that has killed dozens – the latest, a Supreme Court
registrar. Now, an increasing number of Pakistanis and foreign
observers are thinking what was recently unthinkable: Is it time for
Musharraf to go?
“In the last few days a feeling of tragedy is growing among
Pakistanis,” says Hassan Abbas, a research fellow of Harvard
University’s Belfer Center, and former Pakistani security official.
“People who believed in the rule of law saw all their desires and
dreams crushed by the violence of the last two days.”
He added, “there is not just dislike of Musharraf, but hatred.”
His fall would remove the regional linchpin for the West’s fight
against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Musharraf has been a key ally of
George W. Bush since the U.S. president moved to oust neighbouring
Afghanistan’s Taliban government in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in
2001.
For years, Musharraf has been the Houdini of political brinksmanship,
dodging bombs and opposition salvos with uncanny aplomb. But now even
his key supporters, the Pakistani military, are wavering.
A confrontation with Pakistan’s top judge, Iftikhar Chaudhry – whom
Musharraf accused of misusing his office and suspended – has sparked
an explosion of protest from supporters as well as opponents.
Musharraf’s political foes called the judge’s suspension an attempt to
undermine the independence of the judiciary, and to rid the leader of
obstacles to remaining in office as head of both the country and the
army as a September presidential election approaches.
“(It) boils down to one simple fact,” leading Pakistani journalist and
author Ahmed Rashid wrote in The Washington Post. **“He was not
considered sufficiently reliable to deliver pleasing legal judgments
in a year when Musharraf is seeking to extend his presidency for five
more years, remain as army chief and hold what would undoubtedly be
rigged general elections.”
**
Musharraf accused Chaudhry of using his influence to obtain a police
job for his son. But many in Pakistan disregarded the charge and
united behind the judge, who became the most celebrated figure in the
country.
Peaceful protests drew huge crowds in major cities, and a week ago a
rally featuring Chaudhry in the Punjabi capital of Lahore alarmed
Musharraf’s supporters, who worried that the country’s economic
powerhouse, Karachi, could be next.
**To block the Karachi rally the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), allies
of Musharraf, held a rival event and confronted demonstrators on their
way to greet Chaudhry, bringing anarchy and violence to the streets.
**The local security services were absent until more than 30 people were
dead.
“That’s what tipped the balance,” says Toronto-based analyst Kamran
Bokhari, an expert in the region who met with Musharraf last winter.
**“Goons were allowed to open fire, point blank, at opposition workers.
It’s taken a major psychological toll on the country.”
**
Yesterday, Syed Hammad Raza, an official of Pakistan’s Supreme Court
and ally of Chaudhry, was also shot and killed at close range in his
home, but no suspects have been arrested.
“The MQM were known for their underworld style behaviour,” said
Bokhari, a senior analyst for U.S.-based Strategic Forecasting Inc.
“All over the country people were able to watch the violence on
television and it horrified them. They have had enough.”
The bloodshed, which Musharraf condemned but failed to halt, has ended
the president’s chances of re-election, Bokhari said. Above all his
political survival is in doubt because his biggest backer, the
military, is “ready to give him the boot.”
“Pakistan’s military is like a corporation. If the board of directors
sees that the CEO is putting his interests above everybody else’s,
they get ready to negotiate a retirement package,” he said.
In the wake of the violence, many of Musharraf’s political allies are
also backing off. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League Party is
withdrawing support, and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto’s
popular Pakistan People’s Party is expected to follow. The country’s
rival intelligence services are turning their backs on Musharraf.
The violence has also embarrassed Washington, which supplies Pakistan
with money and financial support to join in the “war on terror.”
“Anger in the U.S. Congress and media, particularly among members of
the Republican party, toward Musharraf’s dual-track policy in
Afghanistan – helping to catch Al Qaeda but backing the Taliban – is
making it difficult for President Bush to continue offering his
blanket support,” says Rashid.
To Abbas, a former official in Musharraf’s government, the president
is leading on borrowed time.
"He is living in a fool’s paradise, surrounded by people who tell him
what he wants to hear. He could try to muzzle the progressive
democratic forces through a military clampdown. But my biggest worry
is that the next wave of people on the street will be under the green
banner of the Islamists."