BY USMAN KARIM
Although Pakistan appears much fragile when it did seven years ago, democracy has hardly improved. The next elections will not change this situation. Or the military in general and President Musharraf in particular, the elections will be about consolidating their hold on power while maintaining a facade of democracy. Or the mainstream political forces, particularly the opposition parties such as the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), the elections will be about keeping (or not keeping) he promises of democratization and the return of their exiled leaders, benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, respectively. Or the general population, the elections will be, as usual about living conditions and possibly another exercise in disillusionment. And for the international community? Undoubtedly a stakeholder, though indirectly? The elections will most likely be another moment of imagined tension between democracy and stability. One group will be uncertain of its fate and direction: he Islamic forces. e current legislature, Pakistan have not sets itself on a course of stability and prosperity that emphasizes development and freedom for its own people and peace with its neighbors. Achieving this goal will not only benefit the 1.5 billion people in the South Asia region, but it will also help ensure own safety of Pakistan people and economy by uprooting terrorist ideology and lessening the chances of future terrorist attacks against it?s own people and West. Problem lies all due to army control democracy and human right abuses and lust for money is biggest threat to Pakistan own stability because it?s army involved in biggest scams, in the history of Pakistan like SECP MINING TELCOM, BANKKING AND LAND GRABBING BUSSINESS it?s losing the credibility in the eyes of own people and have NAB (national accountability bureau) 9TH MARCH 2007 Pakistan’s political future has become increasingly uncertain with the decision by the Musharraf government to dismiss Supreme Court Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Lawyers across the country the general population and PAKSITAN MUSLIM LEAGUE NAWAZ GROUP TAKE FIRM STAND have protested the government action and accused the Musharraf government of stifling media coverage of their public demonstrations. President Musharraf publicly apologized to GEO Pakistani television outlets for raids on their offices that he claims he did not order and bashing and threaten the life of media people. And 2nd with herald publication stopping the dawn news television from on air (withdraw the license of TV which was awarded in 2003) and 3rs banning the SIND television for at least 4 days The confrontation between the Musharraf government and the lawyers represents the growing divide between the military and civilian leaders. THE worst scenario of Pakistan politics is main stream politician is living forcible in EXILE by military JANTA, Pakistani lawyers and the political opposition insist the government’s move is an attempt to get rid of a judge who is known for his independence and willingness to challenge the government in several high-profile cases. Like privatization of Pakistan steel mill, PTCL, HBL, UBL, AND SECP in Gwadar port land and most important case he was hearing against uniform of president of Pakistan government Promoting a more open and transparent political process in Pakistan will help to curb the influence of extremist groups which was given full cooperation by ISI AND GHQ in 2002 election to over the longer term. Before the 2002 elections, religious parties that backed the Taliban traditionally received less than 8 percent of the popular vote and had been marginalized in the 1988, 1990, 1993, and 1997 national elections. In the 2002 elections, however, the religious parties performed well in the areas bordering Afghanistan and increased their total vote share to about 11 percent, partly because of changes in election rules that favored them over the secular parties and partly because of anti-American sentiment in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border provinces. The secular Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which is led in exile by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, grabbed about 25 percent of the popular vote in the 2002 elections.2nd the Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz whose leader MAIN Nawaz shariff was in exile and his party was worst target by GHQ, NAB AND ISI did very great in urban area got 3rd largest chunk of vote The full participation of the main secular democratic parties, including the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), in the upcoming elections would provide more political choices to Pakistani voters and instill greater confidence in Pakistan’s democratic process. Charges of corruption leveled against Benazir Bhutto and her husband have tainted her personal reputation, but the PPP as a party continues to attract individuals who support secular-based policies. The PPP recently deal process with Musharraff may be bring his party to brink of collapsed in protest by his own party star Walt left the party in protest but PPP leadership like Pro western Benazir want deal with corrupts regime in the world people of Pakistan is very worried at the moment with the shocking news of Benazir deal with Army regime. The Pakistan military’s pervasive involvement in civilian affairs has stifled the development of civil society and the establishment of democratic institutions. Now 13500 Pakistan Army officers are working in civilian department and plundering the money on the name of good governance Pakistan has been ruled by the military for over half of its existence. Even during periods of civilian rule, the military has wielded tremendous power over decision-making and never help any civilian government to hold stability in Pakistan. Although the military is unlikely to submit fully to a civilian government in the near term, Washington should set benchmarks that begin to restrict the military’s role in Pakistani politics. U.S. officials should also convey a consistent public message that calls for free, fair, and transparent elections in 2007 and 2008 and emphasizes the importance of democracy as a way to lessen the influence of extremist forces. The U.S. should also discourage further changes in the election rules or other government manipulations of the electoral process. The five years separating the last election from he upcoming one have, therefore, deeply changed Pakistan? s political landscape. Several scenarios an envisaged regarding the role of the Islamic forces in the upcoming elections as well as he outcome of these elections. All depend on one central Issue: the resident? s decision whether or remains as chief of army staff. Elections or he residency, The National Assembly, and the provincial assemblies are separate Issues, although these bodies and the senate elect the president. Nds other words, the coming elections are organizationally ands Politically linked. Musharraf s mandate will end in April 2007, and he will eventually have to be reelected by the National Assembly, The Senate, ands the four provincial assemblies. It is therefore essential for Musharraf? s political survival to ensure the victory of the PML-Q. Is decision to run while? Retaining his post of chief of army staff will also influence his own prospects for reelection. Remaining chief of army staff and rigging elections are the two conditions under which General Musharraf can retain power. Having no real political base, he has very little chance of being reelected as head of state if he does keep his post of chief of army staff. Its applies whether or not he chooses To run for reelection before or after the general and provincial assembly elections. Only in his Capacity as chief of army staff can he be reasonably certain of being obeyed and therefore followed, Even by those whom he helped get elected. The assumption that the elections will be rigged if Musharraf wants to retain power is not merely academic. Free and fair elections are almost unknown in Pakistan, but rigging elections has undoubtedly reached new levels under Musharraf, despite his recent protest that? Pakistan is a true democracy.? Manipulation of polls has included pre election division of existing districts as Well as extension of chief-minister powers to remove nazims, the elect that the latter became totally dependent on the provincial chief executive and, therefore, were rendered totally subservient. Although elections were supposed to be contested on a nonpartisan basis, both the president and the Prime minister openly supported PML-Q candidates. Polling was further rigged on Election Day. The International Crisis Group reported ballot stuffing and intimidation of opposition candidates by the police. In Balochistan, some opposition voters were detained, and some disappeared. The Monthly News line reported that in Gujarat (in Punjab), rival candidates of the PML-Q ruling party CH Perviaz ellahi chief minister of Punjab ordered to the police full control. They arrested Hajji Nasir Mohammed genral secretary Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz group was kidnapped by chudary pervaiz ellahi chief minister of Punjab group and threat him and bashed him and rigged the whole election. The whole election of Punjab was rigged in local bodies Local elections rigged to further weaken the Mainstream opposition parties, but Musharraf also laid the groundwork for his supporters to dominate the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Local elections were the first round of Musharraf consolidation of power, s they ensured his control over the organization of the coming Elections. Because the PML-Q won the elections, t will now be in charge of a majority of polling stations and therefore in a position to manipulate the results. The regime has also taken care to choose a no threatening chief election commissioner, Qazi Mohammed Farooq, Former Supreme Court judge who, in May12, 2000,validated the emergency Proclaimed by Musharraf on the basis of the doctrine of state necessity.? Farooq is the author of a series of controversial decisions, all favoring the military. He is therefore no more likely than his Predecessor; justice Abdul Hameed Dogar, to challenge whatever fraud will take place. Against all Evidence, justice Abdul Hameed Dogar declared 2005 local polls fair and transparent. The MMA, like most other political parties in the country, s therefore most likely to ask or two Things:
That the series of elections scheduled for 2007 be held in the proper sequence (Musharraf s, 2007, whereas the general and provincial elections are due 60 days after the termination of the assemblies mandates); ands That Musharraf step down from his position as chief of army staff before his own bid for reelection. Any other sequence will allow Musharraf to manipulate the election in his favor The U.S.A. Factor
The Signal the United States sends to Pakistan ?s military rulers will be decisive for both he reelection situation and the election outcomes. e central question ere is Not hitch particular political force may or Way out in The Election but, Instead, he Extent of he Army ?determination to consolidates its position within the country and orient Pakistan ?s foreign Policy in ay hat potentially collides With .US interests. Whether the army Supports he Pakistani resident or imply accepts the statuesque will therefore be rue political choice between short- And longer-term interests. There is little prospect that Musharraf will voluntarily resign his position as chief of army staff. The position of the U.S. administration will be decisive in determining the attitude of the Pakistani President. The intensity of the pressures and the nature of the demands on the Pakistani head of state will influence whether Musharraf retains his military position and will thus influence the position of The Islamist parties. While he visited Pakistan, 2006.US. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher Stated that the Bush administration strongly favored civilian rule and civilian control of the military. In Pakistan. Acknowledging that General Musharraf ?s holding the dual offices of president and Army chief negated ?the spirit of democracy,? Boucher declared that it remained to be seen how the Pakistani president would address the issue. Boucher remained evasive on the question of whether the United States would accept President Musharraf in uniform after the elections if he continued to hold both offices. This ambiguity illustrates the dilemma faced by the United States in its relations with Pakistan. Although the United States in principle favors a greater degree of democracy in the country (as stated in the new National Security Strategy) of the United States of America the U. S. Attitude will ultimately be decided by other considerations, such as the impact on the U.S. hierarchy of priorities of the most probable alternative. With the war on terror at the top of U.S. priorities for the South Asian region, tacit U.S. acquiescence to Musharraf retaining his uniform remains the most likely Scenario. Party vote share of total seats .All parties raised concerns regarding the delimitation of the constituencies and accused the Election Commission of Pakistan of diluting strongholds of parties opposing the regime while favoring parties supporting the regime. Serious concerns were also raised regarding the quality of the voters registered. the Election Observation Mission noted: The electoral process was marked by the introduction of a new set of qualification criteria for the nomination of candidates, some of which [were ] not in accordance with international standards or [were ] clearly targeting specific prominent politicians.? Or example, university bachelor? s degrees were required, but madrassa diplomas were considered equivalent. Is measure significantly advantaged the MMA, particularly in Balochistan, here some prominent nationalist leaders without university degrees were prevented from running in the election even though several had previously exercised the functions of governor or chief minister of the province. Rallies and the use of loudspeakers were forbidden during the entire campaign. The duration of the campaign itself was reduced to a minimum. These restrictions were applied selectively. Or example, the PML-N and the PPP were denied permission to organize rallies, but the MMA was allowed to. Moreover, because the MMA campaigned essentially in madrassas and mosques, in the context of its religious activities, it was but madrassa diplomas were considered equivalent. Is measure significantly advantaged the MMA, particularly in Balochistan, here some prominent nationalist leaders without university degrees were prevented from running in the election even though several had previously exercised the functions of governor or chief minister of the province. Rallies and the use of loudspeakers were forbidden during the entire campaign. The duration of the campaign itself was reduced to a minimum. These restrictions were applied selectively. Or example, the PML-N and the PPP were denied permission to organize rallies, but the MMA was allowed to. Moreover, because the MMA campaigned essentially in madrassas and mosques, in the context of its religious activities, it was
Relatively unaffected by the ban on rallies imposed by the military government
When $10 Billion Is Not Enough: Rethinking U.S.Strategy toward Pakistan free and fair elections, the military will still be calling the shots after the votes have been counted.
For all the talk of the United States ? global dominance and despite the considerable U.S.support to the Pakistani military, Washington finds itself with Relatively little e leverage to influence events in Pakistan. During the past five year s, the United States has given Pakistan more than $10 billion in assistance, channeled primarily through the Pakistani military. What Pakistan gives in return Pakistan has arrested and handed over al-Qaeda suspects to the U.S., it has not made a clean break with Taliban and other extremists that it believes may one day again serve its national security interests may be only enough to keep the money coming. Washington should demonstrate its interest in a strong and stable Pakistan and its commitment to maintaining a long-lasting and broad-based relationship with Islamabad. This should include upgrading dialogue on a variety of issues that go beyond countering terrorism to maintaining robust economic and military assistance programs, as well as keeping the U.S. promise of providing Pakistan with F-16 fighter jets. . USA itself with relatively little leverages to influence events in Pakistan. better is for USA TO bring back the exile leadership to country to counter the extremism and sectarian division .otherwise USA will lose the ally in war of terrorism just support democratic forces in Pakistan the day of Musharraf is numbered because people are sick of army ruled no more army just democracy and rule of people is popular slogan in pakistan ’
about writer
usmna karim, based in lahore pakistan [email protected]