Nothing short of a MAJOR attack by a non-Muslim source can throw this war off-track. Given that this war will happen, what will take place during and after it?? Our fighting over whether it should happen is pointless - it will. For all those opposing it, this is your chance to make a point. All for, tell us how you will manage it.
Simple responses of “Saddam will be gone and Iraq will be free” are not productive. This war will happen. It will have effects. How do we see to it that those effects are beneficial to the United States and not harmful to lasting world order??
In addition to the above, here are some specific scenarios to ponder:
What would happen if…
1 - …the US invades and finds no WMD?
2 - …a nuclear device is set off in Iraq - either by Saddam or others (USA? Israel?)?
3 - …WMD are used on allied troops and daily death tolls climb into the hundreds - or thousands?
4 - …terrorists unleash WMD in the US while we’re involved in a war on Iraq?
5 - …terrorists/Saddam set off WMD in Israel - while allied troops are on the ground in Iraq?
Spoon, i hope you won't mind my replying in your thread. It seems you are interested in a serious discussion in this thread; i hope that occurs Insha'Allah.
>>How do we see to it that those effects are beneficial to the United States and not harmful to lasting world order??<<
In order to ascertain the effects are "beneficial to the United States", in my opinion, the effects of the war have to be beneficial to the Iraqis first and foremost. Don't let this degenerate into an opportunity for bin Laden and his allies - what i am trying to state is that, during and subsequent to the war, the interests of the Iraqi people should remain paramount in everyone's minds. If not, bin Laden (or others) can use the media images of dead Iraqi children and bombed out Iraqi shelters with casualties of women and children (think al Ameriyah), or dictatorial Iraqi generals in positions of power in the interim, "democratic" Iraqi govt., as further means to drive anti-American sentiments in the region and abroad. This can lead to further, not less, terrorist attacks in places such as Washington, Chicago, London, etc. (This is slightly related to your point #4).
>>What would happen if...1 - ...the US invades and finds no WMD?<<
American officials will claim that that was not one of their most significant objectives to begin with. Remember how damn earnest Bush looked on tv when he reiterated the US would hunt down bin Laden 'dead or alive'. One year and four months counting since that statement, we have no corpse of bin Laden but yet are embarking upon another war - in another country. In MY opinion, in the above scenario, the US will simply claim that discovering WMD was not one of their main objectives - as compared to 'liberating' the people of Iraq, for instance.
The US is not going to use WMD. If Iraq or any other entity does, then the US use massive amounts of conventional weaponry in retaliation.
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*Originally posted by Nadia_H: *
In MY opinion, in the above scenario, the US will simply claim that discovering WMD was not one of their main objectives - as compared to 'liberating' the people of Iraq, for instance.
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And God forbid if that happens.
If no WMD found. Depends on the reaction of the Iraqi people. If the Iraqi people end up cheering US/UK troops in the streets as liberators and their lives are improved through reconstruction and a representative government, no one will care that no WMD were found. If, on the other hand, the Iraqi people resent their “liberation” and/or they perceive post-War Iraq as being plundered by the US, I would think anti-US sentiment will climb and we will become more vulnerable to terrorism and isolation.
NUKE. The only reasonably likely source for a nuke would be Israel retaliating for a chemical attack by Iraq. Any involvement by Israel would probably have catastrophic results setting off the anti-Israel Muslims across the entire region. This would probably lead to a worst case scenario with WWIII a reasonable possibility.
WMD used against allied troops. I would think that virtually the entire world community would turn violently against Iraq and those world leaders currently in the anti-war crowd would lose power and prestige. After all, in their view Iraq has been contained and doesn’t have the capability of doing such a thing. You will have a strongly unified American public willing to support Bush in virtually any military endeavor he advances. There will be a strong push for the US to use the most deadly weapons in its arsenal, although probably short of nuclear. The biggest losers in this scenario will be the Iraqi people as I would expect far more civilian casualties resulting from this scenario.
Terrorist WMD in US. American people will strongly rally to support strong military response in Iraq and elsewhere. Lots of fence sitting countries will also support US and the war on terror will be energized. Lots of countries identified as sponsors of terrorism will wet their pants.
WMD in Israel. Depends on Israeli response. See above. Last time, they sat back and took the scud attacks without retaliating. If they were smart, they would still not get involved in Iraq regardless of who attacked them. If the attack was terrorist, count on the brutality of the occupation you now see being multiplied tenfold. As the victim of a WMD attack, the world community would probably give them more leeway in this regard and criticism would be somewhat stifled. This would present a worst case scenario for the Palestinian people.
Because I consider Saddam a total madman and terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda to be lunatic, I truly believe they would hope for a WWIII scenario. Thus, I believe that a WMD attack on Israel will be attempted. And these guys would hope for an Israeli nuke response.