WALES v NEW ZEALAND
**Venue: **Millennium Stadium, Cardiff **Date: **7 November **Kick-off: **1715 GMT
**Coverage: **Live on BBC TWO Wales, Radio Wales and Radio Cymru, plus commentary online
Wales face New Zealand in Cardiff on Saturday to try to change the answer to a question that has foxed them for 56 years: can they beat the All BlacksIt was nearly ‘yes’ in 2004 when Wales fell short by one point, with just a hint of an affirmative last year when they led New Zealand 9-6 at half-time.
New Zealand have been weakened by bans to Tony Woodcock and Sitiveni Sivivatu.
But a glut of injuries have also left Wales short, missing Lions talents Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips and Adam Jones.
New Zealand coach Graham Henry has had his own injury worries, most notably to star fly-half Dan Carter.
The Canterbury player injured his right calf in last weekend’s 32-19 Bledisloe Cup win over Australia in Tokyo - the same game that saw prop Woodcock and wing Sivivatu cited for foul play and then banned for one week.
Carter was given the all-clear to play when Henry named his team on Wednesday, although doubts about his fitness have continued as he has not trained all week.
Wales coach Warren Gatland said on Thursday he did not expect Carter to be fit. Wishful thinking perhaps
Assuming the fly-half enters the Millennium Stadium under a closed roof on Saturday - and Carter says he is confident of playing - he will take the pitch just 15 points short of Andrew Mehrtens’ All Blacks Test points record of 967.
“Milestones are not why I play the game but, if I do get there, it will be pretty good,” Carter said.
"I want to get stuck in and not hold back on Saturday. Wales are a strong team - I’ve never had an easy game against them.
"They are always fired up, so we are going to need to work hard and stick to our game-plan.
“Wales have some exciting runners and some strong ball-carriers. We will need to match them and get our game going.”
Given that the All Blacks have scored at least 23 points every time they have beaten Wales since 1978 - another almost ‘yes’ that year as the vintage Wales side of the Seventies fell 12-13 at the old Cardiff Arms Park - Carter has every chance of overhauling Mehrtens in this match.
That points conceded tally is a statistic not peculiar to Wales, though, as even regular Tri Nations foes South Africa and Australia struggle to hold the flow of points from the free-scoring All Blacks.
And there lies the crux of the problem for Wales - how to keep New Zealand’s total manageable enough to overtake with their own scores.
To do that Wales must first win enough possession to feed their own gameplan, and then keep flanker Richie McCaw’s paws off the ball at the breakdown long enough to get it out quickly to a talented backline.
Stephen Jones at fly-half will kick points, Jamie Roberts - as he showed for the Lions in South Africa - and Tom Shanklin will break the game line in midfield, and wings Shane Williams and Leigh Halfpenny will go through any half-gap like an agoraphobic ferret up a trouser-leg.
And at full-back James Hook will be tested fully by steepling kicks and marauding Kiwi runners.
Hook is a fly-half at heart who has found himself used more and more at centre by the Ospreys, and finds himself now pressed into the 15 shirt by Gatland due to the likes of Byrne being injured.
With neither Williams nor Halfpenny the most statuesque wings you will see on a rugby pitch, much will depend on Hook - at 6ft hardly a monster in the modern game - to stand up and be counted.
Hooky has the talent, the physical strength and the tools - his boot is hardly less powerful than the cannon possessed by Ospreys team-mate Byrne - to do the job.
But he may not have the experience against such opponents, despite a game at 15 against the Springboks on his CV.
New Zealand have also put faith in the untested in their back three, with Hawkes Bay 20-year-old Zac Guildford making his Test debut in place of Sivivatu.
Two more relative rookies will pack down in direct opposition to each other in the front row.
Wales’ tight-head crisis has seen Paul James summoned to win his second cap a full six years since his Test debut against Romania.
The 27-year-old Osprey is a specialist loose-head but has often filled in at number three for his regional team.
That allows Gethin Jenkins - another loose-head who has proved his worth before on the tight - to pack down on the left of hooker Matthew Rees, recreating two-thirds of the Lions front-row that started the second Test against the Springboks.
606: DEBATE
“No good whinging about McCaw being a cheat, you’ve got to get in there and compete with him”
SouthSeaIslander
James will butt shoulders against Wyatt Crockett, the Canterbury prop who like his Welsh opponent has just one cap to his name so far.
The All Blacks’ effort will be marshalled as usual by McCaw from the back-row, with Wales’ Martyn Williams renewing his rivalry with his open-side foe.
The established wisdom is that if you can get Carter and stifle McCaw then you can stop this current New Zealand side that, while still very good, is not quite a classic.
Williams will have help from his revitalised captain, number eight Ryan Jones, with Andy Powell given the blind-side berth to use his pace, size and power in the channels close to the breakdown.
Gatland has said that the All Blacks have lost their “aura of invincibility”.
Wales’ Test schedule in the near future will also go some way to demystifying the men in black, so Saturday will be just one step along Gatland’s planned path of raising Wales to southern hemisphere heights.
“During the next 12 months, we play the All Blacks four times, we’ve got two games against South Africa and two against Australia,” said Gatland.
“We are not running away. We want to play against the best teams in the world.”
Another post-haka stand-off may recreate last year’s pre-match drama and get the juices flowing nicely.
But, as always, once the whistle goes Wales will have to maintain that intensity for the full 80 minutes if they are to book a place in history alongside the heroes of 1953.
Wales: James Hook (Ospreys); Leigh Halfpenny, Tom Shanklin, Jamie Roberts (all Cardiff Blues), Shane Williams (Ospreys); Stephen Jones (Scarlets), Gareth Cooper; Gethin Jenkins (both Blues), Matthew Rees (Scarlets), Paul James, Alun-Wyn Jones (both Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Newport Gwent Dragons), Andy Powell, Martyn Williams (both Blues), Ryan Jones (Ospreys, capt).
Replacements: Huw Bennett, Duncan Jones (both Ospreys), Bradley Davies (Blues), Dafydd Jones, Martin Roberts, Jonathan Davies (all Scarlets), Tom James (Blues).
New Zealand: Mils Muliaina (Waikato Chiefs); Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Zac Guildford (all Wellington Hurricanes); Dan Carter (Canterbury Crusaders), Brendon Leonard (Waikato Chiefs); Wyatt Crockett (Canterbury Crusaders), Andrew Hore, Neemia Tialata (both Wellington Hurricanes), Brad Thorn (Canterbury Crusaders), Jason Eaton (Wellington Hurricanes), Jerome Kaino (Auckland Blues), Richie McCaw (capt), Kieran Read (both Canterbury Crusaders).
Replacements: Corey Flynn, Owen Franks (both Canterbury Crusaders), Tom Donnelly, Adam Thomson, Jimmy Cowan (all Otago Highlanders), Stephen Donald (Waikato Chiefs), Ben Smith (Otago Highlanders).
Referee: Craig Joubert (SA)
Assistant referees: Mark Lawrence (SA), Stuart Terheege (Eng)
Television match official: Graham Hughes (Eng)
Citing Commissioner: Scott Nowland (Aus)