Thats quite a shocking revelation. Now wonder the US are saying that “We are seeking a peaceful solution. This is best addressed through diplomatic channels”, rather than threaten war like over Iraq.
US says N Korea has nuclear arms
The United States believes North Korea already has a “small number” of nuclear weapons, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said. The statement follows the reported admission by North Korea that it has a secret nuclear programme. President Bush described as the admission as “troubling” - but said he was seeking a diplomatic solution to the problem, which he stressed was different from the crisis over Iraq. The US State Department on Wednesday said North Korea confessed to the programme earlier this month, after Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly produced “evidence” that it possesses enriched uranium - a key ingredient of nuclear weapons.
Differences
In a news briefing on Thursday, Mr Rumsfeld went beyond this, saying he believes the North Koreans have built a small number of nuclear weapons. An official later added that the US thought Pyongyang had two nuclear bombs. The BBC’s Justin Webb is Washington says this second stunning revelation about North Korea in 24 hours will send shockwaves around Asia and around the world. Earlier, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Pyongyang’s nuclear programme was a “serious violation” of the 1994 deal under which North Korea agreed to halt its nuclear weapons programme in return for light water reactors.
Conceptually, it would mean that if Pakistan were to slip a couple of nuclear warheads to Iraq, then US will also abandon plans to attack Baghdad and will resort to diplomatic channels.
Possible, but seems a bit far-fetched. Then again, the idea does have merit. A Saddam staring death in his face, has no reason to be particularly charitable towards rest of the world, and nuclear catastrophe can have devastating affects all over the place.
I’m just wondering what theories people can advance as to WHY North Korea has come clean NOW and stated/admitted that it had a secret nuclear weapons program -- in violation of the 1994 Agreement under which it agreed to halt its nuclear efforts.
One theory would be that it did not want to leave open the possibility that the US would later use charges that it is secretly developing WMD to attack them as the US is doing in Iraq today. If this is the answer, would it not be indicative that Bush’s hardline rhetoric regarding N. Korea being part of the axis of evil and his hardline attitude toward Iraq is actually working in a positive way to improve the long term outlook for peace and stability in the world?
Another theory is that N. Korea wanted to scare the bejesus out of the rest of the world thinking that their perceived progress in developing WMD would be a deterrent against a future attack. This one sort of doesn’t make sense to me since I would have thought that an announcement by N. Korea that it actually now had nuclear weapons would have a greater likelihood of meeting that objective. Instead of N. Korea claiming that it has developed such weapons, the announcement that it probably has two came from the US rather than N. Korea. And the US announcement does not appear to me as if it was made in order to justify an imminent attack against N. Korea.
Does the announcement by N. Korea also suggest a willingness by N. Korea to end the now non-secret weapons program in favor of seriously pursuing re-unification with South Korea and/or re-joining the world community after years of being one of the most closed and isolated societies on earth? It’s hard for me to see that they would let everyone know they have had a secret program in violation of International Accords and yet assume a position that they will continue this weapons program in the open for all to see.
I don’t have much of a grasp on the big picture here and haven’t read anything or heard any commentary which really sheds much light on this for me. Anyone have anything they can add to a serious intellectual discussion without trying to turn this thread into a general US Foreign Policy bashing forum?
Gee Ali_R. I had no idea the two theories that I came up with covered the entire universe of possibilities. I won't number them as you suggest because I'm not interested in a vote. I'm interested in a discussion. If you're not, that's OK with me.
The reason put forth is that US had received solid evidence of their nuclear program (in violation of prior treaty) and when confronted with that evidence, North Korean officer said "Yeah! we got a nuclear program and can make 2 bombs" or something like that.
On the face of it, this seems like they didn't had a choice of saying "dunno what you are talking about".
I think the proof of cheating laid out was inconvertible. NYT article on Pakistan's role also suggests the same. NK might not have been in a credible position to deny cheating. So the strategy is to negate the treaties unilaterally and negotiate for a better deal. How this will turn out will depend upon the Chinese. If they can live with a nuclear NK on their border, then there is very little anyone can do about it. If they don't back NK at this point then there might be something that can be done. The critical issue is how will Japan and South Korea react, and far can they be pushed into appeasing NK. It looks like China wins either way.
Old Lahori:
I didn't see the NYT piece but read a brief thing on Reuters. Although Pak publicly denies that it assisted N. Korea in the secret weapons program, do you think that privately Pak, as part of its growing relationship with the US, maybe shared some of their own dark little secrets with the US to help build a case?
Had the US just come out with the allegation of N.Korea cheating as part of the evil axis rhetoric, we both know that the naysayers would have said "where's the proof" and "the US is lying." Not a whole lot of people would have just accepted statements from US intelligence. Go back a couple months and look at the threads on N.Korea appearing in GupShup and you'll see lots of people arguing that N. Korea was not a threat, didn't have WMD, etc., etc.
The way this is all coming out is so different than what I think of as the norm. One country accuses and the other country denies and the rest of the world just chooses up sides.
I think when Pakistan agreed to accept US help in securing its Nukes, and allowing US spooks back in, a lot of information about NK must have been 'exchanged'. I agree with Faisal that the proof must have been such that NK just was not in any credible position to say dunno. The issue now is what is China, Russia, SK and japan going to do about it.
I just found a couple items relevant to this discussion on Reuters.
"While some analysts suggested that North Korea’s admission showed a desire for serious talks with the United States, a U.S. official who attended the meetings in Pyongyang said it was unclear why Pyongyang had admitted to the nuclear program.
“It was not apologetic. It was defiant and it was belligerent,” he said. “It certainly wasn’t … a desperate cry for help. It was: 'We have this and we have more.”’
This might just suggest that the motive for coming clean was indeed to scare the bejesus out of everybody.
As to the role of Russia, China and Pak, the article linked below cites Janes as saying there is no evidence that China has assisted N. Korea in this weapons program and that China appears to be treating proliferation issues very responsibly.
The article goes on to say that the knowhow is being provided by rogue scientists from the former Soviet Union and that the equipment is being supplied in large measure by Pak.
Maybe the why of coming clean now is just as simple as Faisal suggests: i.e. N. Korea was caught red-handed and the evidence was just plain overwhelming and too difficult to deny.
I would have to think for the evidence to be that good, a lot of it must have come from Pakistan. Equipment lists, shipments, dates, times, places, etc.
My post from yesterday in response to NY Double Standards topic is relevant here to (the 2nd prt at least)
"Iraq will have the opportunity to avoid conflict if it follows the (current/furture) resolutions. I think N. Korea should be given the same opportunity to show that it is a peaceful nation, perhaps that is why they have announced they had a program in the first place, to pull it from underneath the table so everyone can see it and then come to a peaceful solution of disarming. I'm sure they would be rewarded by many for such an action."
This is just precious isn’t it! Finally, the Pandora’s Box that the US opened to threaten and subjugate the entire world has opened to many more countries. The US was the first to use a nuclear weapon against another country for politico-military means, and now that ghost is coming to haunt it back. Just a few months ago, the Bush White House release a strategic report, listing reasons in which the US would use nukes to threaten other countries if it felt those countries were getting to powerful, or if the US was loosing a military conflict, even if the other country didn’t have nuclear weapons themselves. This basically means that the US wants to remain the sole hyper power of the world, and anyone who tries to challenge the US’s position will be threatened or attacked.
But now we see, the 1 million North Korean Army even without nukes is a threat to America and its client state South Korea. The US will never invade North Korea, because it knows it will loose thousands of its troops because the North Koreans are dedicated fighters, not some Taliban or Iraqi disaffected rebel troops.
But now we see, the 1 million North Korean Army even without nukes is a threat to America and its client state South Korea. The US will never invade North Korea, because it knows it will loose thousands of its troops because the North Koreans are dedicated fighters, not some Taliban or Iraqi disaffected rebel troops.
Let the games begin!
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Not only that, but North Korea has two of the leading nuclear states in the world, as its neighbours and allies - China and Russia. Right under the noses of the American's and while still receing American economic aid the North Korean's have quite craftily assembled a couple of nuclear bombs, if we are to believe the US claims?
But what is clear that US "axil of evil" policy has fallen flat on its face, quite humiliatingly for the Bush administration. It is now backing down on its war mongering over Iraq (for now) having faced such unprecedented international opposition, and now we have the revelations from Pyongyang. Then again who can blame the North Korean's wanting to develop this technology. Does the United States not have nuclear bombs stationed in South Korea and Japan, pointed in the direction of North Korea?
Isnt diplomacy for the weak minded? I thought the all powerful US would want to get rid of this threat to its security from a mighty nation of the axis of evil.
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*Originally posted by myvoice: *
Gee Ali_R. I had no idea the two theories that I came up with covered the entire universe of possibilities. I won't number them as you suggest because I'm not interested in a vote. I'm interested in a discussion. If you're not, that's OK with me.
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What's the use of discussing when you won't accept my answer to it and neither will I praise US for it's "good work" since I see no.
