Click on above link. It shows chart for the p to e ratio based on cyclically adjusted earnings of last 10 years.
Re: The Shiller P to E vs Trailing 12 months P to E for the S&P500
See the 3 peaks.
One in 1929. About 26.8.
One in 2000. If I recall it is 45
One in 2007. I think at 26.8
And one right now. At 26.8
So only in 2000 bubble was this ratio higher. In 1929 and 2007, prior to collapse, ratio same value as now.
Mean ratio 16.56
MEDIAN 16.
Plus more buybacks now. So earnings Pumped up.
Re: The Shiller P to E vs Trailing 12 months P to E for the S&P500
The goal of this thread is not to talk abt mkt valuations per se. Whither the Markets thread does that. This thread gives u insight on the Shiller ratio vis a vis the trailing 12 months ratio.
Re: The Shiller P to E vs Trailing 12 months P to E for the S&P500
Now click on the bar that says S&P500 p to e. This is p to e based on trailing 12 months earnings.
Re: The Shiller P to E vs Trailing 12 months P to E for the S&P500
Remember the 2000 peak in Shiller ratio? It is dwarfed by the 2002 peak. Can you say why?
Ditto 2007. That peak is dwarfed by peak in 2009. Can you say why?
If you can answer these questions, you are as good as the top 1 pct in investing. (I exaggerate. But the Shiller chart gives an excellent high level analysis of Market valuation. The MBAs are free to use jargon. Keep it simple).
Re: The Shiller P to E vs Trailing 12 months P to E for the S&P500
Deadline for responses - end of any calendar year
Re: The Shiller P to E vs Trailing 12 months P to E for the S&P500
All those who PMd - you are on the right track. Well done.
You are allowed to post your on the money analysis in this thread.