Alright, two games played, two games lost, zero points scored, zero momentum, ultra-low morale, and an even lower Net Run Rate. There is however a silver lining in all of this. There’s a very good chance that Pakistan will make it to the Quarter Finals, barring any upsets. Remember, in 1992, with only three out of seven games remaining, Pakistan was in second-to-last position. Granted, this team is nowhere near 1992’s caliber (no Akram at the height of his powers, no Miandad to provide a steady hand, no Inzi ready to explode, no Moin to make his mark as a late order hitter, no Aqib Javed with his deadly outswingers, no Imran Khan as inspirational leader).
Despite all this, Pakistan at the moment is actually in a better position than WI, because we lost to two established teams but WI lost to a minnow, Ireland. Here’s how it needs to happen in 2015 for Pak to make it to QF:
1. India and SA will be the top two teams in our group. They should easily win against the other remaining teams. The Ind-SA game could go either way, but it does not make a difference. These two teams are going to be #1](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1) and #2](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=2) anyway, with 12 and 10 points. This leaves two QF spots for the other five teams to battle for. UAE has no chance of advancing, therefore the battle is between WI, Ireland, Zim, and Pak.
**2. Ireland **should easily beat UAE, but lose to Ind, SA, and Pak. If they beat Zimbabwe as well, they’ll end up with 6 points, otherwise 4 points.
**3. Zimbabwe **has already beaten UAE, but can be expected to lose to WI, Pak, and India. If they beat Ireland, they’ll be at 4 points. If they beat WI as well, they’ll be at 6 points.
4. West Indies should be expected to win against UAE and Zimbabwe. They’ll end up with 6 points (losing to both Ind and SA). If they lose to Zim as well, they’ll be at 4 points.
**5. Pakistan **will win against UAE. Normally, Ireland would not be a problem (despite the 2007 defeat) because our spinners should be able to sort them out. This time however, we don’t have our spinners, other than Afridi who seems out of form with the ball, and Yasir Shah who we can’t be sure will be in the team (team management should be smart enough to recognize that having a genuine leg spinner will be an advantage against Ireland). Regardless, Pak must find it within themselves to beat Ireland, as well as Zimbabwe. Pakistan can lose to SA and still end up with 6 points.
The last two spots in the QF therefore will be a battle between WI, Pak, Zim , and Ireland, Pakistan will be at 6 points, while only one of the other three will be at 6 points (depending on the outcome of Zim-Ireland, and WI-Zim game). Pakistan will thus make it to the QF, along with one of WI, Zim, or Ireland. The two teams to lose out will be at 4 points.
In short, all Pakistan needs to do is win against minnows (UAE, Zim, Ireland), and hope that minnows don’t pull an upset against an established team. While we’re at it, we should try to win BIG and not lose to SA too badly. The Net Run Rate will come into play if there are upsets, and Pakistan’s NRR is currently the worst of all teams.
The naysayers will point out that Ireland isn’t exactly a minnow, but a giant-slayer. Yes, but in the normal scheme of things, the established teams should prevail. They’ve already pulled one upset (over WI), and now the other teams will not take them too lightly. Some will also say, that given current circumstances, Pakistan should not be expected to beat even the UAE. All I can say is yes, the current team is pathetic, but don’t let the anger cloud your judgement. It’s not unreasonable to expect Pak to overcome UAE, Ireland, and Zim, despite all their shortcomings.
In conclusion, rejoice Pak fans. The Quarter Finals are just around the corner.