The balloon economy during pathetic aid dollars did more harm than good to Pakistan..
The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/20584/the-myth-of-musharrafs-economic-boom-needs-to-die/
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
If we compare the period 1999 to 2013, economically Musharraf's period was much better.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
The author has spent the entire article comparing GDPs, and has not once shown the GDP vs inflation parity. And the stats for military regimes only include Zia and Musharraf eras...not Ayub Khan. Seems a bit unrealistic.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
I dont know about the economist's parameters in coming up with the results but one thing I have observed that the free dollars in aid that have fallen during Zia and Musharaf have destroyed social fabric of our society by bringing moral decadence. Un-earned dollars were filtered to few and gap between have and have-nots had always widened.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
Military has destroyed the social fabric of the country, I agree with that. Creation of militants, heroin and klashnikov cultures, creation of TTP, sectarian organizations (SSP) and MQM are some of the gifts of dictators. On the other hand politicians have not provided good governance too. Cursory look during the past decade shows energy crisis, capital flight, hyper inflation (depreciation of rupee, billions of rupees being printed daily etc) , relocation of industries and joblessness etc.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
Mush responsible for the moral decadence???
Haha, I guess next time some jerk decides to rob you at gunpoint because they were too stupid to go to school or their 19 yr old wife needs her bling, blame Musharraf too.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
There is no denying of the fact that the way forward is democracy. But we also need to carefully examine the hijacking of the system and the use of its loopholes to obtain fake mandate and plundering the country without anyone being answerable about anything.
Misusing the shortcomings of the system to sneak into the corridors of power should be considered as heinous a crime as staging a coup to grab power.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
Mush responsible for the moral decadence???
Haha, I guess next time some jerk decides to rob you at gunpoint because they were too stupid to go to school or their 19 yr old wife needs her bling, blame Musharraf too.
dont take moral word literally - Pl check here we are discussing economic scenario where too much money from aid dollars develop inflated property prices, stock bubble and other greed adventures resulting in behavior that has negative affect on citizens.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
dont take moral word literally - Pl check here we are discussing economic scenario where too much money from aid dollars develop inflated property prices, stock bubble and other greed adventures resulting in behavior that has negative affect on citizens.
Countries do take advantages of godsend opportunities. Had it been Nawaz Sharif instead of Musharraf, how differently he would have acted? Even today as we are into the 6th consecutive year of democracy, property prices are highly inflated and KSE is flying in orbit whereas there is hardly any business activity seen on ground. Don't you think it's also a bubble?
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
As if misuse of foreign aide has not happened with Zardari , BB or nawaz?
BB - one down.
Two more to go.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
As if misuse of foreign aide has not happened with Zardari , BB or nawaz?
BB - one down.
Two more to go.
Foreign aid to pakistan increases substantially during military rule. We normally get sanctions during civilian 'rule'.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
Foreign aid to pakistan increases substantially during military rule. We normally get sanctions during civilian 'rule'.
Agreed. Yeh baat buhut si khoprion ke samajh main nahin aati.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
Foreign aid to pakistan increases substantially during military rule. We normally get sanctions during civilian 'rule'.
Not this time around. BISP, where corruption was found, was funded through US money.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
yeah myth of Musharraf economic boom must die, Zardari economic boom must shine.... oops, only Zardari's butt shined in previous 5 years.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
dont know about you guys but the people that i came across in pakistan praised mushy for the economic uplift which included foreign investments, outsourcing in the form of call centers and lots of jobs for the locals
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
A lot of NRP's invested in buying high value residential properties in Pakistan at that time, including my father. It has to be said, during the first half of Musharraf's era, a large number of NRP's genuinely considered living in Pakistan. Now of course post 9/11 discrimination and racial tensions in most Western countries was also a contributing factor behind such change of attitude, but the brief political and economic stability that we saw at the beginning of Gen Mushy's period was impressive and couldn't be ignored.
Too bad, that man turned out to be a massive under achiever in every single way and gave us the gift, actually no, the curse of NRO as a leaving salute. Honestly, he should never be forgiven for bringing the the NRO, forget everything else.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
Dr. Ata-ur-Rehman recently wrote an article in a Urdu daily newspaper about the economy during Mush's era. Can someone post it? I guess people here will claim that to be false as well.
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
One can lie but one cannot hide truth. But then, Pakistani democracy lives on lies, deceit, corruption, and big claims.
What claimed in above article is not only lies but absurd lies. I do not know how this guy is registered as PhD student, because he do not even know who officially estimate a country’s GDP and GDP per capita, so let me tell that Pakistan GDP as well as GDP per capita is officially get estimated by country’s statistical department, that is independent of government (it is state institution) and figures are given in rupees. PBS also gives their procedure and figures they base their estimate.
Other world institutions monitor their working, so it is very difficult to fudge the figures. I think once Ishaq Daar tried in 1998 and that was on minor things, like foreign exchange reserves and he got caught with his trousers down and was rebuked by world institutions. Pakistan got bankrupt first time in Pakistan history, and that happened twice, in late 1998 and early 1999, both during Nawaz period when Ishaq Daar was finance minister, before world institutions bailed Pakistan out.
World institutions like World Bank, CIA, IMF, or any institution that wants to estimate Pakistan GDP in dollars takes the figures of Pakistan and covert that into dollars. They use different ways to calculating Pakistan dollar figures. For instance IMF might take current value of dollars exchange rate (probably averaged out over financial year) for conversion, while World Bank takes average value of dollar exchange rate during last 3 years to calculate GDP, and thus GDP per capita.
Anyhow, surprising thing is that, the figure given in article is not even from site writer claims, but it is something he must have got from wet dreams, or whatever (maybe bribed by politicians to fool the masses).
If anyone wants to see Pakistan real GDP growth rate or Pakistan GDP per capita growth rate, they should visit Pakistan government statistical department site. … I am giving the site address below to find out real growth of Pakistan GDP as well as Pakistan GDP per capita (all in rupees, so no chance of any fiddle, nor exchange rate is needed).
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/national_accounts/tables/table3.pdf
Figures given is real GDP of Pakistan and real per capita GDP of Pakistanis for each year … and many more information, all in real terms.
Only thing to remember is that, base rate makes no difference to work out percentage increase, so if one wants to find out percentage increase in real per capita growth, than the figures one should use should be for years that has same base rate. (In 1999 Pakistan based rate changed, so to work out figures, it is easy to work out from year 1999-2000 = 100 onward. Anyhow, for data before 1998-99 and earlier, base rate used is of year 1980-81=100 … that means, one can use the figures to compare each other without any problem)
What one should do is use figure of any (desired) year and divide it by the figure of previous year (that has same base rate) and multiply by 100, to see what was growth in that year (year between desired year and previous year).
If one wants to work out period of any ruler, than one should take final figure of that rule period, then divide it with initial figure of that ruler. Take log of it then divide it with number of years between initial and final year, then use the result as power over 10. The result would be 1.xxx … where xx.x is growth rate.
I have calculated and quoted figures many time, still I feel no one cares and then ‘chailay chamchay’ of Liar Politicians living on thrown bones of politicians start propaganda again, so I am leaving the exercise on those who care to verify. Anyhow, I am putting down periods that one can calculate and compare with the calculated figures I am giving … plus giving example so that anyone who could not, can do calculation and find true figures themselves.
Example: …
Ayub khan:
Pakistan real GDP per capita:
1960-61 = 1799
1968-69 = 2385
Above figure is from 1961 to 1969 … or 8 years of Ayub Rule.
Now 2385 / 1799 = 1.3257
(Minus 1 and then multiply by 100 gives 32.57)
That means, Pakistan per capita real GDP increased by 32.57 percentage points over 8 years (from July 1961 to June 1969).
Now … [log (2385 divide by 1799)] / 8 = 0.015307
10 to the power of 0.015307 = 1.03587 …that means
(Minus 1 and then multiply by 100 gives 3.587)
That means, average GDP per capita growth rate per year from 1961 to 1969 (8 years) … was 3.587 percentage points per year.
Z A Bhutto:
1971-72 = 2695
1976-77 = 2991
Comes to real growth rate of 2.16 percentage points per year
(That is 5 years from 1972 to 1977)
Zia-ul-Haq:
1976-77 = 2991
1987-88 = 4433
Comes to real growth rate of 3.64 percentage points per year
(That is 11 years from 1977 to 1988)
Corrupt political thugs (BeNazir Zardari and Nawaz Dollar)
1987-88 = 4433
1998-99 = 4992
Comes to real growth rate of 1.085 percentage points per year
(That is 11 years from first July 1988 to end June 1999)
(Ideally, a country should re-base economy every 10 years, as it is essential to work for growth in economy, else government do not even know what is happening in economy … as new sectors comes in and old dies out … but
Musharraf period:
1999-2000 = 27471
2006-2007 = 35154
Comes to real growth rate of 3.586 percentage points per year
(That is 7 years from 2000 to 2007 … since rebasing happened in year 2000, 2000 is missed)
Zardari period:
2007-2008 = 35106
2011 – 2012 = 37104
Comes to real growth rate of 1.393 percentage points per year
(That is 4 years from first 2008 to 2012)
Thus, read GDP per capita growth rate during various periods are:
Source Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) … One need to calculate to get the figure (method given above):
[TABLE]
Ruler
Periods
years
Real GDP per capita growth rate
Military or civilian rule
Ayub Khan
1961-69
8
3.587
Military
Z A Bhutto
1972-77
5
2.16
Civilian
Zia-ul-Haq
1977-88
11
3.64
Military
Thus (BB and NS)
1988-99
11
1.085
Civilian
Musharraf
2000-07
7
3.586
Military
Zardari
2008-12
4
1.393
Civilian
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
....I have calculated and quoted figures many time, still I feel no one cares....
That's the key point in your analysis. :D
Re: The myth of Musharraf’s ‘economic boom’ needs to die
That's the key point in your analysis. :D
No, that is not the key point in my analysis. I did not do any analysis. I only put down Pakistan real per capita income figures that are given by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Plus, I am not on pay role of ‘Nawaz Thug or Zardari Thug’ that I would try to mislead anyone. :)
Since Pakistan Bureau of Statistics did not gave real growth rate between different periods, that can be calculated easily, and I did the calculation that is simple to verify.
For instance, if a number ‘X’ grows by ‘V’ percentage point every year and becomes ‘Y’ after Z years than:
Y = (1 + V/100) ^ Z] multiply by X
I only calculated V
X, Y and Z are taken from Pakistan ‘Bureau of Statistics’ department.
If you have any doubt on my calculation than … replace V, Z and X in above equation and check if result is Y or not.
For instance … value of X, Y and Z for Thugs (BB and NS) period:
1987-88 = X = 4433 ß this is real GDP per capita at the end of FY 1987-88
1998-99 = Y = 4992 ß this is real GDP per capita at the end of FY 1998-99
Number of years in between = 11
I calculated V = 1.085
So check if
(1.01085)^11] x 4433 = Y (given above = 4492) or not?
If it is than V = 1.085 percentage point growth per year I gave is right figure.
You can check it with all ‘V figures’ (annual average growth rate per year of real per capita income) I gave for different periods and I can assure you that you will find each and every figure I gave as accurate.